Global Economic Daily - 10/11/2024
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Equities: Stocks declined?Thursday, with the?S&P 500?and Dow Jones Industrial Average falling from records as economic data pointed to stubborn inflation. The broad market index lost 11.99 points to settle at 5,780.05, while the?Dow?dropped 57.88 points to finish at 42,454.12. The?Nasdaq 100?dipped 27.10 points to end at 20,241.76. Wall Street digested September’s?consumer price index, which rose 0.2% on a monthly basis, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.4% from the previous year. That came in ahead of the 0.1% monthly gain and 2.3% year-over-year rate expected by analysts polled by Dow Jones. The year-over-year number is the lowest since February 2021. fter the hot CPI, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told The Wall Street Journal he was?OK with standing pat?at November’s rate meeting, instead of cutting like the market wants. “This choppiness to me is along the lines of maybe we should take a pause in November. I’m definitely open to that,” Bostic told the paper. The data comes as concerns mount that the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of future cuts, and ahead of the central bank’s first policy meeting after September’s supersized move. Minutes from the latest meeting released Wednesday also appeared to signal some division over last month’s half-percentage-point cut. Although the “substantial majority of participants” supported the cut, some favored a smaller move. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Dow and S&P are above the 14, 21 day moving average.
Metals: Gold and silver prices are solidly higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday, following a U.S. inflation report that was deemed non-problematic despite being just a bit warmer than expected, and following an unexpected rise in weekly U.S. jobless claims. Today’s U.S. consumer price index for September rose 0.2%, month-on-month, compared to expectations of 0.1%, and was up 2.4% year-on-year. The August CPI report showed the index up 2.5 percent, year-on-year. The core CPI rate was up 0.3%, month-on-month, versus expectations for up 0.2%. Year-on-year, the September core CPI was up 3.3% versus up 3.2% in August. The slightly warmer CPI report today was mitigated by higher-than-expected weekly U.S. jobless claims, which came in at 258,000 versus trade expectations for up 230.000. All in all, today’s U.S. data is being deemed friendly for the metals markets and unlikely to change the trajectory of an easier Federal Reserve monetary policy into the end of the year. Friday’s producer price index report for September is seen coming in up 0.1 percent, month-on-month, compared to up 0.2% in the August report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and are trading around $75.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 4.082%. Technically, December gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,708.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,572.50. December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart but bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it alive. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $33.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $29.00. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are below the 14, 21 day moving average.?
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