Global Economic Daily - 08/13/2024

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY

Global Equities

• Stocks Halt Rebound as Oil Hits $80 on War Angst
• European Markets Close Mixed; UK Inflation in Focus This Week

Global Fixed Income

• Treasury Yields Fall as Attention Turns to Inflation Data
• China’s Treasury Market Rattled as Central Bank Squares Off With Bulls

Currencies

• US Dollar Clings on the Sticky Level on Soft Monday
• EUR/USD Price Forecast: Extra Consolidation Seems on the Cards Near Term

Energy

• BP’s New Iraq Adventure Could be a Turning Point for the West in the Middle East
• Crude Oil Continues to Rally a Bit in the Early Hours on Monday

Metals

• Gold Continues to Look Positive
• Silver Bounces on Monday to Show Signs of Life

Global Politics/News

• Three-Year Inflation Outlook Hits Record Low in New York Fed Consumer Survey
• Top Ukrainian Commander Says His Forces Now Control Almost 390 Square Miles of Russia’s Kursk Region

Relevant Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

Financial

Closing Commentary

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Quote of the Day: Don’t judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds that you plant. – Robert Louis Stevenson

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Equities: Stocks seesawed Monday but managed to maintain the momentum from late last week as investors braced for key inflation data. The?S&P 500?ended flat, up a mere 0.23 points, at 5,344.39. All day, the broad-based index had alternated between small gains and losses. The?Nasdaq 100?advanced 28.92 points to close at 18,542.03. Shares of?Nvidia?gained 4% to help the technology-heavy index climb. The?Dow Jones Industrial Average?pulled back 140 points at 39,357.01. The forthcoming batch of inflation data will be essential for markets that remain jittery following increased volatility. Wednesday’s consumer price index report for July will be a pivotal clue as to the health of the U.S. economy, and determine if investors will remain uneasy following July’s?weak nonfarm payrolls report?that contributed to the recent sell-off. The major averages are coming off slight weekly losses, but they recovered the lion’s share of the pullback seen early last week. Wall Street is watching for the July producer price index report on Tuesday. July retail sales are also due out Thursday. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Both the Dow and S&P are way below the 14, 21 day moving average.

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Crude Oil: Oil prices jumped by more than 3% on Monday, rising for a fifth consecutive session on expectations of a widening Middle Eastern conflict that could tighten global crude oil supplies. The U.S. Defense Department said over the weekend that it will?send a guided missile submarine?to the Middle East as the region braces for possible attacks on Israel by Iran and allies. Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate for the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr. An attack could widen the Middle Eastern conflict, while tightening access to global crude supplies and boosting prices. Such an assault could lead the United States to place embargos on Iranian crude exports, potentially affecting 1.5 million barrels per day of supply. Meanwhile,?Israeli forces continued operations?near the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis on Monday following an airstrike over the weekend on a school compound that killed at least 90 people, according to the Gaza Civil Emergency Service. Israel said the death toll was inflated. Hamas?cast doubt?on its participation in new ceasefire talks on Sunday. Oil prices drew support when?consumer prices?in China, the biggest global oil importer, rose faster than expected in July. On Monday Russia?evacuated civilians?from parts of a second region next to Ukraine after Kyiv increased military activity near the border only days after its biggest incursion into sovereign Russian territory since the start of the war in 2022. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Crude is below the 14, 21 day moving average.

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Metals: Gold and silver prices are higher, with gold solidly up, near midday Monday. The precious metals are being supported in part by bullish daily outside market elements that include higher crude oil prices and a slight down-tick in U.S. bond yields. The gold market also sees technical buying on a bullish chart posture. Silver is also being supported by some short covering in the futures market and some perceived bargain buying after recent selling pressure. Metals traders are awaiting the U.S. data points of the week: the July producer price index on Tuesday and the consumer price index for July on Wednesday. PPI is seen up 0.2% from June and the CPI is also seen up 0.2%, month-on-month. The retail sales report on Thursday will also be closely scrutinized by the marketplace. Technically, December gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,537.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,350.00. September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $39.355. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $26.00. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold is above the 14, 21 day moving average, while silver is still below.

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DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

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