Global Economic Daily - 04/18/2024

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY Global Equities

• Tech Leads Stock Slide, Nvidia Falls Almost 4%
• European Stocks Close Higher Despite Fed Comments Rattling Global Markets; LVMH Shares Up 3%

Global Fixed Income

• Treasury Yields Fall as Investors Digest Remarks From Fed Officials
• High Yields Lure Buyers to US Treasuries, Including 20-Year Sale

Currencies

• Dollar Eases, Near 5-1/2 Month High, On Hawkish Fed Outlook
• EUR/USD Forecast: Next Relevant Hurdle Comes at the 200-Day SMA

Energy

• Oil Moves Down on Crude Oil Inventory Build
• Crude Continues to Bounce Around

Metals

• Gold Market Likely to Work Off Froth
• Silver Continues to Grind Back and Forth at High Levels

Global Politics/News

• US Economic Activity Expanded Slightly in Recent Weeks, Fed Says
• Ukraine was in Trouble Already – Now It Openly Admitted It’s on Track to Lose

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Relevant Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

Financial

Closing Commentary

?Quote of the Day: Find something you’re passionate about and keep tremendously interested in it. – Julia Child

Equities: Stocks were down today. The?S&P 500?dropped for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, as struggling technology names put downward pressure on the market. The broad index lost 29.20 points to 5,022.21, while the technology-heavy?Nasdaq 100?slid 220.04 points to 17,493.62. The?Dow Jones Industrial Average?fell by 45.66 points, or 0.12%, to 37,753.31, despite rising nearly 238 points at its high of the day. Wednesday marks the third straight session when stocks opened higher but faded as the day wore on. With the retreat, it was the Dow’s seventh negative session of the last 8. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both notched four-day losing streaks, the longest for each since periods ending in early January. Wednesday’s performance comes amid a bout of weakness that has marked a reprieve from the strong gains seen in the first quarter and in 2023. The Dow has slid more than 5% in April, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have tumbled more than 4%. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - The Dow and S&P are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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Crude Oil: Oil prices settled down 3% on Wednesday, pressured by a rise in U.S. commercial inventories, weaker economic data from China and U.S. progress on Ukraine and Israel aid bills. Oil prices have softened this week as economic headwinds curb gains from geopolitical tensions, with markets eying how?Israel might respond?to Iran's weekend attack. Analysts do not expect Iran's unprecedented missile and drone strike on Israel?to prompt dramatic U.S. sanctions?on Iran's oil exports. U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels to 460 million barrels last week, government data showed, nearly double expectations. Oil prices continued to decline after U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson said the text of four bills providing assistance to Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific would be?filed?"soon today," with a fourth with "other measures to confront Russia, China and Iran" posted later in the day. Top Federal Reserve officials including?Chair Jerome Powell?backed away on Tuesday from providing any guidance on when interest rates may be cut, dashing investors' hopes for meaningful reductions in borrowing costs this year. In China, the world's biggest oil importer, the economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, but several other indicators?showed that demand at home remains frail. Elsewhere, Tengizchevroil announced plans for scheduled maintenance at one of six production trains at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan in May. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Crude is above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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Metals: Gold prices are modestly lower and have traded both sides of unchanged, while silver prices are higher in U.S. trading Wednesday. Both markets are in a pause mode as tentative traders and investors ponder the next. development in the volatile Middle East. The heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—namely the Iran-Israel hostilities—have taken center stage in the general marketplace. Traders and investors have temporarily pushed supply and demand and economic fundamentals to the back burner and are keenly focused on the next shoe to drop in the Israel-Iran military confrontation. Such is evidenced by gold and silver markets rallying on safe-haven buying recently, despite normally bearish fundamentals at present that include rising U.S. Treasury yields, a rallying U.S. dollar index and a hawkish leaning Federal Reserve. Technically, June gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. May silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $30.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $26.00. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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