Global Economic Daily - 03/07/2024

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY

Global Equities

• S&P 500 Closes Above 5500 in Record-Breaking Run
• European Markets End Lower After Euro Zone Core Inflation Holds Steady

Global Fixed Income

• 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls as Powell Says U.S. Getting Back on ‘Disinflationary Path’
• Shares Flat, US Treasury Yields Weaken as Markets Weigh Fed Chair Comments

Currencies

• US Dollar Inches Lower as Dovish Powell Comments Offset Upbeat Jobs Data
• EUR/USD Forecast: Further Weakness Not Ruled Out Below 1.0790

Energy

• Global Crude Oil Shipments Fall in June on Saudi Export Slump
• Crude Oil Price Forecast: Reverses at Key Resistance, Forms Bearish Pattern

Metals

• Gold Price Forecast: Tight Range Hints at Upcoming Volatility Surge
• Silver Continues to Find Buyers on Dips

Global Politics/News

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell: US Inflation is Cooling Again, Though it Isn’t Yet Time to Cut Rates
• Coup Attempt Thwarted in Ukraine, Security Service Says, as Hungary’s Orban Arrives in Kyiv for Talks

Relevant Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

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?Financial

Closing Commentary

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Quote of the Day: It has been my experience that folks who have no vices have very few virtues. – Abraham Lincoln

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Equities: Stocks rose Tuesday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted progress on inflation, but reiterated that the central bank was not quite ready to cut rates. The?S&P 500?gained 33.92 points, ending at 5,509.01 and marking its first close above the 5,500 threshold. The?Nasdaq 100?jumped 199.67 points to settle at 20,011.89. Both indexes closed at record highs, buoyed by a 10% jump in?Tesla. The?Dow Jones Industrial Average?added 162.33 points, closing at 39,331.85. We’ve made quite a bit of progress in bringing inflation back down to our target,” Powell?said?at a central banking forum. “We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of … loosening policy”. Treasury yields eased a bit following Powell’s comments, and the major averages rose from their lows of the session. Wall Street is coming off a positive session to start the second half of the year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.8% to close at a record, while the S&P 500 rose 0.3%. The Dow eked out a small gain. The S&P 500 climbed 14.5% in the first half of the year. Trading volume is likely to be muted this week. The New York Stock Exchange closes early at 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday and will be shut on Thursday for Independence Day. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Both the Dow and S&P is above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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Crude Oil: Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday as fears faded that?Hurricane Beryl?would disrupt supplies as the storm will avoid most oil fields as it barrels toward Jamaica. Brent crude futures settled down 36 cents, or 0.42%, at $86.24 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $82.81 a barrel, down 57 cents or 0.68%. Earlier on Tuesday, WTI rose $1 to $84.38 on fears Beryl might have a wider impact in offshore oil production areas in the U.S.-regulated northern Gulf of Mexico as U.S. demand for motor fuels is increasing. Hurricane Beryl is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane tearing through the Caribbean Sea. It is expected to have weakened into a tropical storm by the time it enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Sources said on Tuesday after that American Petroleum Institute figures for last week showed U.S. crude oil and distillates inventories fell while gasoline rose. The API figures showed crude stocks were down by 9.163 million barrels in the week ended June 28, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.468 million barrels, and distillates fell by 740,000 barrels. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Crude is above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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Metals: Gold prices are modestly down and silver prices slightly up in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. Precious metals traders are awaiting price direction from this week’s key economic and political events that began to unfold today. Technically, August gold bulls have a slight overall near-term technical?advantage. However, prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $2,406.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. September silver futures bulls have a slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $31.225. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of $28.90. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold is above the 14, 21 day moving average, while silver is still slightly below.

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DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

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