Global Conflict & Security Update: November 30-December 07, 2020
This is a weekly aggregation of open-source articles and information on what is occurring across the world, with a focus on geopolitics, military, and security issues. I will keep original analysis and commentary to a minimum to ensure classified information is not mistakenly shared, and rather hyperlinking to existing articles. All headlines and photos are hyperlinked.
TOPIC CATEGORIES (In Order):
HIGHLIGHTS / SPECIAL MENTION:
THE AMERICAS & POLAR REGIONS | Atlantic Ocean, United States
Supporting News & Commentary:
REGIONAL: Secretary of the Navy Announces Return Of U.S. Atlantic Fleet, Focus Will Be On Russian Threat
December 02, 2020?| "The Navy plans to rename U.S. Fleet Forces Command to the U.S. Atlantic Fleet, harkening back to a time when the Navy was fully focused on maritime operations in the Northern Atlantic rather than the Global War on Terror. The move to bring back Atlantic Fleet comes after a?2018 decision to reestablish U.S. 2nd Fleet?in Norfolk as a means of focusing more on anti-submarine warfare in the Atlantic and with European allies on the other side of the ocean."
EUROPE |?Belarus, Greece, Russia, Ukraine, United Kingdom
UNITED KINGDOM: First AH-64E Apaches Arrive In UK, Will Serve As New Carriers’ Other Strike Capability
November 27, 2020?| "Among official plans for the future air wings of the Royal Navy’s two?Queen Elizabeth?class?aircraft carriers is a so-called Littoral Manoeuvre setup that combines Apaches with a variety of assault transport and support helicopters. Since it’s also planned for the air wings to be tailored for combinations of Carrier Strike and Littoral Manoeuvre capabilities if required, it’s also possible that the new Apaches will eventually go to sea alongside the F-35B Lightning jet fighter, to provide a two-pronged offensive-oriented air complement."
November 30, 2020?| "The United States’ ambassador to Greece confirmed in a statement that Athens has sought to purchase Lockheed Martin’s advanced F-35 fighter jet amid tensions with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean. The nod from Washington follows?high tensions between Turkey and its Eastern Mediterranean neighbors over hydrocarbon drilling rights, as well as concerns in some Arab states over Ankara’s growing influence in the region."
November 30, 2020?| "The Kremlin sent Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Minsk on November 26, 2020, likely to secure the implementation of Union State integration concessions that self-declared Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko [PHOTO LEFT] made on September 14. Lukashenko suggested he would relinquish power under a new constitution after meeting Lavrov.?Lukashenko may not relinquish power even if he adopts a new constitution, however. Putin [PHOTO RIGHT] will likely pressure Belarus for economic integration concessions at an upcoming meeting on December 11, 2020. Lukashenko is leveraging the COVID-19 pandemic to stall Union State integration."
Additional Belarus News & Commentary:
December 02, 2020?| SUMMARY: "The flying-wing drone has apparently begun tests carrying air-to-air missile surrogates for a planned 'fighter-interceptor role'. The plan is to utilize the Okhotnik, at least partially, as a loyal wingman-type complement to the manned Su-57 FELON fifth generation stealth fighter. It’s also possible that the drone might help overcome certain deficiencies in the Su-57 design. The drone could be used to cue longer-range weapons against air and ground targets on behalf of the Su-57."
Additional Russia News & Commentary:
December 03, 2020?| "A Russian military unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) Granat-1, which is part of the new Russian artillery reconnaissance system Navodchik-2, was shot down on November 29, 2020 over the zone of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) in Donbas. Granat-1 is a Russian short-range flying-wing UAV, with a range of up to 10 km. It is designed to conduct aerial reconnaissance and provide targeting coordinates for firepower assets. The payload includes a digital camera and a rotary video module with a color video camera. Launch method: hand launching. Capable of making photo, video and thermal footage. Data is transmitted via a digital radio link. The UAV is part of the modern Russian system Navodchik-2."
Additional Ukraine News & Commentary:
AFRICA |?Ethiopia, Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, Tanzania
November 30, 2020?| "Violent extremists in Nigeria have killed 110 farmers in a horrific attack.?As the farmers were at work in their rice fields near Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state, extremists on motorcycles rounded them up, bound them, and then slit their throats. 15 women are believed to have been kidnapped. No one has yet claimed responsibility for this gruesome act. Yet, Boko Haram is believed to be behind the attack, as it has been conducting terror attacks in the area for quite some time. Ansaru, a Boko Haram splinter group, also operates in the area."
December 01, 2020?| "For the first time, Islamic jihadists have conducted coordinated attacks on the three military bases in Mali.?The jihadists, who are reportedly linked to al-Qaeda, targeted French military bases in Kidal, Menaka, and Gao in northern Mali within the space of a few hours on Monday as they tried to coordinate attacks. The bases were hit by rocket attacks as well as mortars but no one was injured."
Additional Mali News & Commentary:
December 04, 2020 | BACKGROUND: Modern Ethiopia is a confederation of nine regions, each with its own grievances. Militants in the northern region of Tigray fought a guerilla war with the central government from 1975-1991. The central government began an offensive against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) on November 04, 2020, after the group attacked an Ethiopian military base. BACKGROUND: Government forces are expected to prevail in all conventional hostilities with the TPLF, however a insurgency phase will be sure to follow, and likely drag on into 2021. Each Ethiopian region, including Tigray, has a right to declare Article 39 of Ethiopia’s constitution (Right to Self-Determination). Any perceived heavy-handed actions by government forces in Tigray may lead other regions to consider secession.
TACTICAL UPDATE (01 DEC 2020): Reporting indicates?that the regional capital of Mekele was captured by federal government forces. Eritrean army troops are reported to have crossed into northern Ethiopia and supporting the TPLF against the federal government offensive in the vicinity of Adwa and Adrigrat. The TPLF claimed to reclaim towns Aksum and May Tsemre from the Ethiopian army. The conflict continue near Aksum and Wikro as well.
December 01, 2020?| "In a large assault, Al Shabaab raided a Somali military base in the town of Bacaadweyne in the central Mudug Region. According to local media reports, Shabaab militants clashed with Somali troops from the federal army’s 21st Division before moving into the adjacent town and briefly occupying it. The town was later recaptured by government forces after armed citizens joined in a counter-offensive against the jihadists. While most of its resources are invested in southern Somalia, the al Qaeda branch has shown it remains a potent threat across much of the country."
Additional Somalia News & Commentary:
December 03, 2020?| "On October 15, Islamic State (IS) fighters in Mozambique staged their first claimed attack into southern Tanzania, killing at least 20 people in Kitaya, Mtwara Province.?Mtwara Province borders Palma district in the Mozambican Province of Cabo Delgado, which is the base of?the group known as Ahlu al-Sunna Wal Jamaa or al-Shabaab (“The Youth”) locally but officially as Islamic State in Central Africa Province (ISCAP). ISCAP’s attack in southern Tanzania underlines IS’ ambition to expand its territory in Africa."
MIDDLE EAST & CENTRAL ASIA |?Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Nagorno-Karabakh Region, Syria, Turkmenistan
November 29, 2020?| "The aircraft carrier Nimitz and its strike group have returned to the Persian Gulf region amid rising tensions with Iran over the killing of a top nuclear scientist, the Pentagon and the U.S. 5th Fleet said Friday. In statements, both the Defense Department and a spokeswoman for the 5th Fleet based in Bahrain said the return of the Nimitz was to provide security for the drawdown of troops from Afghanistan and Iraq."
November 30, 2020?| "The retired admiral who commanded the SEAL Team 6 raid that took out Osama bin Laden in 2011 described a retaliatory strike by Iran in the wake of the killing of a top nuclear scientist as all but inevitable. 'The Iranians are going to be in a position where they have to retaliate against either the U.S. or Israel for the Nov. 27 ambush killing of scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh outside Tehran. I don't see any way around it. Iran is going to have to save face. And so now the issue becomes, what does that retaliation look like?'”
Additional Iran News & Commentary:
NAGORNO-KARABAKH REGION: Latest Update On The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
November 30, 2020?| "Since the beginning of the ceasefire, more than 23,000 Armenian refugees who had moved from Karabakh to Armenia have returned to their homes in Karabakh. Russia transferred military equipment and ammunition to Karabakh using Baku-Yevlakh-Barda railway in Azerbaijan. Since the beginning of the ceasefire in Karabakh, Russia has been sending military equipment and ammunition to Karabakh using airlines. Azerbaijani army forces have entered Lachin district and are spreading in different parts of the region. According to the ceasefire agreement, the Lachin region must be handed over to Azerbaijan by December 1."
Additional Nagorno-Karabakh Region News & Commentary:
December 02, 2020?| "The U.S. envoy who brokered the ongoing peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, Zalmay Khalilzad, said Wednesday the two sides have overcome a three-month impasse and agreed on rules and procedures for the negotiations. Now they must decide on the agenda for the negotiations, which is the next step. Khalilzad said there was a signed document and urged both the Taliban and the government to get down to the business of negotiating a political roadmap and a cease-fire."
Additional Afghanistan News & Commentary:
December 04, 2020?| "Iraqi Shiite cleric and leader of the Sadrist movement Muqtada al-Sadr has launched what looks like?an early electoral campaign in preparation for the parliamentary elections slated for June 6. Sadr had said before that he would not participate in the elections this time, but he has changed his mind and declared that not only will?he participate in the elections, he also plans to win a majority required to gain the premiership."
Additional Iraq News & Commentary:
December 04, 2020?| "Key Takeaway: ISIS is reconstituting and expanding attack zones in northern and central Syria. ISIS militants may have carried out three explosive attacks in Turkish-controlled Aleppo Province and separately attacked a pro-regime outpost and oil facility in central Syria.?The increasing severity and geographic area of ISIS attacks likely indicates the organization is successfully expanding its freedom of action in Syria. Continued releases of ISIS militants and family members by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will likely provide ISIS with veteran fighters and enable it to further expand its operations."
领英推荐
December 01, 2020?| "multiple reports over the last few days suggest Turkmenistan is fast descending into an economic crisis that makes its continued socio-political stability ever less likely. There have been three waves of opposition activity in Turkmenistan. The first two were suppressed quickly and brutally, but the third, which involves Turkmenistanis both at home and abroad, is gaining strength.?Ashgabat may return to its more repressive policies and ultimately succeed in suppressing the current wave of anger sweeping the country. But the increasingly dire economic situation there makes that less likely and gives hope that the real “last dictator” in the post-Soviet space may not be able to hold on much longer."
ASIA-PACIFIC | Australia, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Russia, United States
CHINA: China’s H-20 Stealth Bomber Will Give PLA "Truly Intercontinental" Strike Capacity, Says Report
November 26, 2020?| "The bomber is still under development but the Pentagon believes that when completed it will be able to target US overseas territories such as Guam, while other analysts believe its range will bring Hawaii within reach. The PLA Air Force is currently configured as a regional force which is capable of penetrating the first island chain – a series of archipelagos in the Pacific stretching from the Kuril Islands, through Japan and on to the Philippines. The H-20, by contrast, would give China a truly intercontinental power-projection capability. Plans for the H-20 were announced by the PLA in 2016 and the subsonic bomber may be ready to enter service within five years."
Additional China News & Commentary:
AUSTRALIA: Australia Teams Up With U.S. To Get Hypersonic Missiles For Its Super Hornets In Five Years
November 30, 2020?| "Australia is gearing up to start testing a new air-launched hypersonic missile 'within months'. Details of the joint U.S.-Australian program are still emerging but point to a multi-million-dollar effort to develop an air-breathing, long-range missile that could ultimately be carried by a range of Royal Australian Air Force aircraft. The new weapon is due to be formally announced tomorrow and prototypes are being developed together with the United States under the Southern Cross Integrated Flight Research Experiment, or SCIFiRE."
Additional Australia News & Commentary:
December 01, 2020?| December 01, 2020?| "The Department of Defense is moving ahead with plans to formally build a backup air base at Tinian Island, located just 100 miles to the north of its giant and highly strategic U.S. military airbase on Guam, known as Andersen Air Force Base. This comes as the Pentagon is working to expand its existing airfields located deep in the Pacific and even create new ones that it could use during a major peer-state clash, namely with China, in the vast region."
Additional United States In The Indo-Pacific News & Commentary:
December 03, 2020?| "The Russian military on Tuesday announced the deployment of state-of-the-art air defense missiles to the Pacific islands claimed by Japan. Russia's Eastern Military District said in a statement that the S-300V4 air defense missile systems have entered combat duty on the Kuril Islands, adding punch to the shorter range Tor M2 missile systems deployed there earlier. Japan asserts territorial rights to the islands it calls the Northern Territories. Air defense missile systems were deployed on Iturup, one of the four southernmost Kuril islands. The new deployment marked the latest move in a continuous Russian military buildup on the islands, which has included stationing advanced fighter jets and anti-ship missiles there. The Soviet Union took them in the final days of World War II, and the dispute has kept the countries from signing a peace treaty formally ending their hostilities."
PHILIPPINES: Philippine Special Forces Kill Five Communist Guerillas Amid Furor Over Alleged War Crimes
December 04, 2020?| "The 5th Special Forces Battalion of the Philippine Army raided a communist guerrilla hideout in the village of Ned in the town of Lake Sebu of South Cotabato Province, and killed five members, including an explosives expert, of the New People’s Army (NPA), the armed wing of the outlawed Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP). The CPP has about 5,000 active fighters spread out over 80 different groups in the Philippines."
December 04, 2020?| "Indonesia’s protracted search for a new fighter aircraft has taken another, surprising, twist, with confirmation that the Southeast Asian country is in negotiations with France to purchase Dassault Rafale multirole jets. The potential sale of 36 Rafales was confirmed by French Minister of Defense Florence Parly. While an Indonesian move for the Rafale had not been expected, it is clear that the country is eager to introduce a new fighter type to help modernize its inventory."
THE UNITED STATES MILITARY
JOINT OPERATIONS: CJCS Milley: Character Of War In Midst Of Fundamental Change
December 04, 2020?| "The world is in the midst of a fundamental change in the character of warfare as a variety of nations begin to field directed energy, hypersonics and autonomous systems, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said during the U.S. Naval Institute’s Defense Forum Washington conference on Thursday. 'I would argue that today we are in the middle of a fundamental change in the character of war. The nature of war is probably not going to change, but the character of war does change and it changes frequently.'"
Additional Joint Operations News & Commentary:
U.S. NAVY: Massive 2021 U.S. Naval Drills Will Include Multiple Carriers And Amphibious Ready Groups
December 03, 2020?| "The Navy and Marine Corps plan to conduct a large scale exercise involving multiple strike groups and multiple numbered fleets next year. The chief of naval operations and commandant of the Marine Corps said today that Large Scale Exercise 2021 would be the first major live test of the Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO), Littoral Operations in a Contested Environment (LOCE) and Expeditionary Advance Base Operations (EABO) concepts that are driving the bulk of their ongoing budget and acquisition decisions."
Additional U.S. Navy News & Commentary:
U.S. MARINE CORPS: The Marine Corps' First Carrier-Capable F-35 Squadron Is Ready For Combat
December 02, 2020?| "The U.S. Marine Corps' first F-35C carrier-variant Joint Strike Fighter squadron has officially been declared ready for combat. Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 314 of Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, California, said its F-35Cs have achieved initial operational capability, or IOC, authorizing the aircraft for worldwide carrier deployment operations."
Additional U.S. Marine Corps News & Commentary:
December 02, 2020?| "The U.S. Army says it will train and equip company-sized units of Green Berets focused on taking down 'hard targets'.?The Army's 1st Special Forces Command (Airborne) announced its intention to create these 'Hard Target Defeat (HTD) Companies' using existing Special Forces companies. These HTD Companies are set to supplant existing Army Special Forces units organized as standing Crisis Response Forces. The shift in mission for certain Special Forces units is part of a broader push to prepare for higher-end fights with Russia and China."
Additional U.S. Army News & Commentary:
December 01, 2020?| "The Department of Defense is moving ahead with plans to formally build a backup air base at Tinian Island, located just 100 miles to the north of its giant and highly strategic U.S. military airbase on Guam, known as Andersen Air Force Base. This comes as the Pentagon is working to expand its existing airfields located deep in the Pacific and even create new ones that it could use during a major peer-state clash, namely with China, in the vast region."
Additional U.S. Air Force News & Commentary:
December 03, 2020?| "The next satellite for the U.S. Space Force’s missile warning constellation is finished and ready for its 2021 launch date, according to primary manufacturer Lockheed Martin. The company announced Dec. 2 that work on the fifth geosynchronous Space Based Infrared System satellite (SBIRS GEO-5) was officially completed back in October."
December 04, 2020?| "According to U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Schultz, the Coast Guard has seen a 12% uptick in search-and-rescue cases this year, an increase Schultz attributed to Americans desperate for recreation and who had 'the means to buy a boat but don't necessarily have the experience or training' to operate one."
Additional U.S. Coast Guard News & Commentary:
U.S. Naval Update Map: Carrier Strike Groups & Amphibious Ready Groups
Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs) are the primary tools the United States uses to maintain global shipping lanes free of coercion, to deter aggression, and to posture for potential future military operations. The presence or absence of CSGs and ARGs in different regions may give indications of what security threats U.S. senior leaders are concerned of, as well as make the probability of conflict more or less likely.
A?Carrier Strike Group (CSG)?is composed of roughly 7,500 personnel, an aircraft carrier, at least one?cruiser, a destroyer squadron of at least two destroyers or frigates, and a carrier air wing of 65 to 70 aircraft. A carrier strike group also, on occasion, includes submarines, attached logistics ships, and a supply ship.?
An?Amphibious Ready Group (ARG)?consists of a naval element—a group of warships known as an Amphibious Task Force (ATF)—and a Landing Force (LF) of U.S. Marines or U.S. Army Soldiers, in total about 5,000 personnel. Together, these elements and supporting units are trained, organized, and equipped to perform amphibious operations in wartime and humanitarian operations in peacetime.
NOTE:?These are approximate (not actual) positions, based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. The source of this information can be found HERE.
● DEPLOYMENT: The?USS Nimitz?(CVN-68)?Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is operating in the Arabian Sea. ANALYSIS: The Nimitz CSG had left the Persian Gulf one month ago and was heading into the Pacific after participating the MALABAR 2020 exercise. The Nimitz reversed course towards the Arabian Gulf likely on account of recent escalation with Iran and announcements regarding U.S. troop withdrawals from the region.
● DEPLOYMENT: The?USS Makin Island?(LHD-8)?Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) is underway in the Western Pacific and transiting west with the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) embarked.
● TRAINING/WORK-UP: The?USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69)?and USS Gerald Ford (CVN-78)?aircraft carriers are underway in the Virginia Capes Operating Areas. The Eisenhower?is exercising ahead of a planned double-pump deployment early next year. The Ford?is doing independent steaming as part of the carrier’s 18-month post-delivery tests and trials period.
● TRAINING/WORK-UP: The USS Iwo Jima (LHD-7) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) is underway in the Virginia Capes Operating Areas with the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) embarked.
● TRAINING/WORK-UP: The USS?Carl Vinson?(CVN-70) aircraft carrier and USS Essex (LHD-2) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) are underway in the Southern California Operating Areas. The Vinson is training ahead of a planned 2021 deployment, which will be the first operational deployment for the carrier-based F-35C Lighting II Joint Strike Fighter and the Navy’s new CMV-22B carrier onboard delivery aircraft.
Previous Weekly Updates May Be Viewed Below:
About Zeph Czelusta
Zeph is a military intelligence officer with the U.S. Army National Guard. His 15-year military career with both the U.S. Army and U.S. Air Force has included three different assignments with U.S. special operations units and the DEA while deployed in Afghanistan. His career has also involved working in information operations, unmanned aerial vehicle operations, and intercontinental ballistic missiles. He has also worked with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on critical infrastructure protection issues at the national level. He holds a B.A. in Studies of War & Peace from Norwich University. He currently lives in the greater Sacramento, CA area.
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