Global Conflict & Security Update: November 02-09, 2020
This is a periodic aggregation of open-source articles and information on what is occurring across the world, with a focus on geopolitics and security issues. To ensure to classified information is not mistakenly shared, I am keeping original analysis and commentary to a minimum, and rather hyperlinking to existing articles.
TOPIC CATEGORIES (In Order):
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:
November 03, 2020?|?"As former and current military officers, we have spent our professional lives defending the United States from military threats. But the most capable military in the world may not be sufficient if Americans permit our vitriolic domestic discourse to deteriorate further. America’s service members will continue to focus on protecting fellow citizens from military threats, but that will not be enough to secure our country’s future. We must recognize that America’s authoritarian adversaries are attempting to destroy our democracy by sowing domestic discord. We should not let them succeed."
Beyond The Election: Part I by Peter Zeihan
November 04, 2020?|?"I want to close the book on the globalist era... The question is not will Americans return to the world in the aftermath of the 2020 general elections. They won't... The question isn't even will American credibility return in a post-Trump world. Americans do not care about their credibility... No, Americans care not about their credibility. It is capacity they crave... America oozes capacity. That's not the problem. The problem is America's goal. The country doesn't have one... People who believe as I do – that the United States ought to play a positive role in making the world a better place – have seen their preferred candidate lose in each of the seven presidential elections leading up to 2020. In the election just concluded, we didn't even have a horse in the race... Americans have chosen – repeatedly – that they are simply done. Or at least they are done for now."
THE AMERICAS & THE ARCTIC | Mexico
November 07, 2020?|?"A recently published DoD report ?provides some insight and key updates on the efforts of the U.S. and Mexico as they try to stem the flow of illegal drugs. According to Mathew J. Flynn, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Counternarcotics and Global Threats, 'The Mexican security forces are working tirelessly to fight the drug cartels and the criminals attempting to smuggle drugs across the border. Despite the obstacles, Mexican law enforcement and military professionals, in cooperation with their U.S. counterparts, are bravely confronting the transnational criminal organizations that threaten both of our countries.'"
EUROPE | Austria, Belarus, Russia
November 03, 2020?|?"In another terrorist attack in Europe, gunmen opened fire in at least six locations in Vienna, Austria killing at least four people, two men and two women , and wounding 17 including one police officer. The police killed a gunman and are searching for at least one other. The killed gunman was wearing a fake explosive belt when he was taken down. He was armed with an automatic rifle, a handgun, and a machete."
November 03, 2020?|?"The United States is pushing Russia to agree to a freeze in nuclear warheads deployed in each of our deterrent forces. As well as a modest one-year extension of the 2010 New Start treaty, during which the US and Russia can define and verify exactly what warheads are being counted."
Additional Russia News:
Russia And The United States Need A Timeout On Nuclear Weapons by Admiral (ret.) James Stavridis
November 06, 2020?|?"The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will conduct a rapid response exercise near Moscow November 11-12. The exercise will test the CSTO’s rapid response capabilities by using elements of Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) as the CSTO’s command and control backbone for the first time. This exercise is likely the November iteration of Russia’s and Belarus’ now-monthly joint exercises. Russian deployments to Belarus since the crisis began have overwhelmingly been VDV units. The Kremlin will likely use this exercise to support its hybrid war in Belarus, and could be part of the Kremlin’s likely efforts to prepare logistics supply lines to Belarus."
Additional Belarus News:
AFRICA | West Africa
WEST AFRICA: France Said To Plan Cuts In Sahel Force
November 06, 2020?|?"”Fifty French soldiers have died in the Sahel since 2013, sparking some soul searching at home about the cost of the conflict. Seven years later, the situation is not evolving favourably on the ground, despite our great tactical successes, French deputy Thomas Gassilloud warned parliament, calling the cost of the Sahel operation 'great, too great.'"
Additional West Africa News:
MIDDLE EAST & CENTRAL ASIA | Afghanistan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Iran
November 02, 2020?|?"The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense has released a statement saying that they enacted a heavy toll on Armenian forces in intense combat in the vicinity of Aghdara, Khojavand, and Qubadli. he below videos, circulated by the?Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense website , show a convoy and several infantry positions being hit by airstrikes. Other videos posted in the last 24 hours show MLRS and artillery being hit as well."
NAGORNO-KARABAKH: Azerbaijan Claims To Have Captured Shusha In Nagorno-Karabakh
November 08, 2020?|?In recent days, Azerbaijani forces have reached the important town of Shusha in the center of the Nagorno-Karabakh region and cut off the Stepanakert-Lachin route near Shusha several times.?
Additional Nagorno-Karabakh News:
November 06, 2020?|?"The Turkish Lira has lost 30% of its value in 2020. Instead of further cutting rates in line with Erdogan's visions, the central bank ended its easing cycle and back in September, it resumed hiking, rising rates from 8.25% to 10.25%. While that rate hike was the only thing that prevented the Lira from a far greater collapse, it also turned out to be one more rate hikes than Erdogan (RIGHT) could handle. In short, we expect this to be the first salvo in what ultimately culminates as a full-blown currency crisis for the Turkish nation, and while Erdogan may try to impose capital controls, it won't last for one simple reason: the Turkish central bank is almost out of Foreign Exchange (FX) reserves. And once those are gone, the Turkish Lira will promptly go bidless, and will follow in the footsteps of the Venezuela Bolivar."
November 04, 2020?|?"Video and photos have emerged showing for the first time an underground Iranian ballistic missile facility in which groups of missiles ready to fire are moved around massive tunnels using an automated railway-type system. The vertically-stowed missile “magazine” appears to bring groups of missiles into position for rapid, consecutive launching from the cavernous subterranean bunker."
VIDEO ANALYSIS?|?IMA Media stands for "Iranian Military Achievements". The speech playing in the background is by Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian IRGC Quds Force commander killed by a US missile strike January 3, 2020.
Additional Iran News:
November 02, 2020?|?"According to the deal between the U.S. and the Taliban, the U.S. will withdraw its forces from Afghanistan early next year in exchange for the Taliban ensuring that terrorist groups will not be able to?use Afghan territory to plot international attacks. Despite the peace deal with the U.S. violence persists in Afghanistan. Washington has to decide whether to continue turning a blind eye towards what are obvious violations of the agreement and just get out as fast as possible or to call the Taliban on this and risk extending the deployment of troops and furthering the bloodshed."
Additional Afghanistan News:
ASIA-PACIFIC | China, Taiwan, United States
November 01, 2020?|?"The volume of arms exports is approaching Cold War levels, according to the database of SIPRI, but the picture has changed dramatically since it ended in 1991. Nowadays, markets in the Indo-Pacific region are increasing their share of global arms consumption. This can largely be explained by the fact that the region is home to many allies of the U.S., including Australia, South Korea and Japan."
November 05, 2020?|?"New images have emerged of what looks to be a Chinese H-6N missile carrier aircraft carrying an outsized missile underneath its fuselage. The features that we can now see further point to a hypersonic design, which could potentially be air-breathing and nuclear-capable.?"
Additional China News:
November 04, 2020 | "Maintaining persistent maritime domain awareness has been an enduring challenge for Taiwan. It’s unclear how Taiwan will employ the new aircraft, but four aircraft is typically the requirement to maintain a constant unmanned aerial vehicle orbit. Given that Taiwan’s greatest existential threat is widely considered an amphibious invasion from mainland China, keeping a constant orbit over the Taiwan Strait would be a likely mission for the new aircraft. Congress will ultimately have to approve the sale of the aircraft to Taiwan."
UNITED STATES: U.S. To Evaluate Basing U.S. Coast Guard Cutters In American Samoa In Response To Illegal Chinese Fishing
October 27, 2020?|?"In a statement released by U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien on October 23, the U.S. Coast Guard will evaluate the feasibility of basing Fast Response Cutters in the western Pacific, most likely American Samoa. According to the release, which can be read below, the study is being conducted in response to alleged predatory activities by?Chinese fishing fleets ?and to ensure freedom of navigation."
THE UNITED STATES MILITARY
U.S. Naval Update Map: Carrier Strike Groups & Amphibious Ready Groups
Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs) are the primary tools the United States uses to maintain global shipping lanes free of coercion, to deter aggression, and to posture for potential future military operations. The presence or absence of CSGs and ARGs in different regions may give indications of what security threats U.S. senior leaders are concerned of, as well as make the probability of conflict more or less likely.
A?Carrier Strike Group (CSG) ?is composed of roughly 7,500 personnel, an aircraft carrier, at least one?cruiser, a destroyer squadron of at least two destroyers or frigates, and a carrier air wing of 65 to 70 aircraft. A carrier strike group also, on occasion, includes submarines, attached logistics ships, and a supply ship.?
An?Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) ?consists of a naval element—a group of warships known as an Amphibious Task Force (ATF)—and a Landing Force (LF) of U.S. Marines or U.S. Army Soldiers, in total about 5,000 personnel. Together, these elements and supporting units are trained, organized, and equipped to perform amphibious operations in wartime and humanitarian operations in peacetime.
NOTE:?These are approximate (not actual) positions, based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. The source of this information can be found HERE .
● The USS Nimitz (CVN-68) Carrier Strike Group (CSG) has just transited the Strait of Hormuz – departing the Persian Gulf – and is now in the Gulf of Oman.
● The USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is operating in the Philippine Sea after transiting through the South China Sea four weeks ago. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command forces and units from the Japan Self-Defense Forces completed Exercise Keen Sword 21 (KS21) last week.
● The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) and USS Wasp (LHD-1) are underway in the Virginia Capes Operating Areas. The USS Gerald R. Ford is doing independent steaming as part of her 18-month post-delivery tests and trials.
● The USS Essex (LHD-2) and USS Makin Island (LHD-8) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) are underway in the Southern California Operating Area. The 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) is embarked on the USS Makin Island ARG.
U.S. NAVY: U.S. Navy's Next Attack Submarine Will Be Wider And Based On The New COLUMBIA Class Missile Boats
November 04, 2020?| "The U.S. Navy's future nuclear attack submarine, or SSN(X), is set to be notably wider than the service's present VIRGINIA class, bringing it more in line size-wise with its advanced SEAWOLF class. It will also leverage technology in development now for its future COLUMBIA class ballistic missile submarines. It would be the follow-on to the VIRGINIA class fast-attack submarine, and it would enter service sometime in the late 2030s."?
Additional U.S. Navy News:
U.S. MARINE CORPS: Marines Will Help Fight Submarines by Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps, General David Berger
November 05, 2020?| "As we move into the future, the Marine Corps must support fleet operations in the contact layer, and set conditions to ensure a position of advantage if events transition to blunt layer operations. Nowhere will that competition be fiercer than in the undersea domain. The Chinese are watching every aspect of the competition in Europe and learning from it. We must counter the strategy of our adversaries and deny them the luxury of fighting the type of war they choose. As it has demonstrated repeatedly, the Chinese Navy will get better every day. We should participate in the Navy’s broader efforts to create a campaign for undersea dominance against a more capable Chinese Navy of tomorrow."
Additional U.S. Marine Corps News:
November 06, 2020?| "Both missiles are available in the near term, a crucial consideration given the Army’s urgency to field the Mid-Range Capability by the end of 2023. In the longer run, however, the Army may well develop a new weapon for the MRC role, perhaps derived from DARPA’s hypersonic OpFires experiment.”"
Additional U.S. Army News:
U.S. SPACE COMMAND: SPACECOM Boss Talks Wielding, Defending Satellites In Combat
November 06, 2020?| "SPACECOM boss Gen. James H. Dickinson on Nov. 5 provided a peek into how the U.S. might respond to an enemy attack on the ground control systems that talk to military communications satellites, disrupting their ability to send data to troops around the world. 'This attack would have significant strategic-level consequences. Regional troops on the ground or in the air would defend those ground systems in such an event, showing that space assets not only support other parts of the military but are deserving of support themselves.'"
Previous updates can be viewed below:
About Zeph Czelusta
Zeph is a military intelligence officer with the U.S. Army National Guard. His 15-year military career with both the U.S. Army and U.S. Air Force has included three different assignments with U.S. special operations units and the DEA in Afghanistan. He has also worked with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on critical infrastructure protection issues at the national level. He holds a B.A. in Studies of War & Peace from Norwich University. He currently lives in the greater Sacramento, CA area.
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