Global Conflict & Security Update: December 14-21, 2020
This is a weekly aggregation of open-source articles and information on what is occurring across the world, with a focus on geopolitics, military, and security issues. I will keep original analysis and commentary to a minimum to ensure classified information is not mistakenly shared, and rather hyperlinking to existing articles. All headlines and photos are hyperlinked.
TOPIC CATEGORIES (In Order):
HIGHLIGHTS / SPECIAL MENTION:
December 16, 2020?|?"Some observers argue the COVID-19 pandemic could be a world-changing event with potentially profound and long-lasting implications for the international security environment and the U.S. role in the world. Other observers are more skeptical that the COVID-19 pandemic will have such effects."
THE AMERICAS & POLAR REGIONS | Eastern Pacific, United States
EASTERN PACIFIC: LCS USS Gabrielle Giffords Nabs Narco Sub In The Pacific
December 14, 2020?|?"Operating in the Eastern Pacific with a Coast Guard law enforcement detachment (LEDET) aboard, the USS?Gabrielle Giffords?(LCS-10) interdicted a so-called narco submarine on Dec. 5. Around 4,806 pounds (2,810kg) of cocaine was seized. The value of this payload is over $100 million. This time the payload was much larger than has been typical for this type of narco submarine. This may be part of a wider trend where narco subs are entrusted with greater loads per trip."
UNITED STATES: Terror Group Member Arrested For Plotting 9/11-Style Attack
December 17, 2020?|?"Federal prosecutors in Manhattan have charged Cholo Abdi Abdullah, a Kenyan man, with plotting to hijack an aircraft and attack a building in an American city, similarly to 9/11. The man is a member of the Al-Shabaab terror group. Abdullah 30, was arrested in the Philippines in 2019 while making preparations to hijack an aircraft and crash it into a building in the United States."
EUROPE |?Germany, The Netherlands, Russia
December 12, 2020?|?"Ramstein Air Base in Germany, America's massive central European military hub, alerted its personnel on December 12th of a potential incoming missile strike. After the strike never materialized, the sprawling installation's command post put out a notice stating that "the missile launch was then assessed to be part of a training exercise" and wasn't deemed a threat to the base. Details about the strange event remain extremely limited at this time, but the base is considered a prime target for potential foes."
UNITED KINGDOM: Britain Tilts Towards The Indo-Pacific
December 15, 2020?|?"The UK appears set to tilt further ‘East of Suez’—British strategic parlance for the Indo-Pacific—a move that has been underway for some time. Since the early 2010s, the UK has deepened its strategic relations with the Gulf states and the countries of Southeast Asia?as well as Japan and Australia, while also moving to bolster its ‘strategic array’ of military facilities throughout the region, including in Bahrain and Oman."
December 16, 2020?|?"Various Russian electronic warfare and maritime patrol aircraft need replacing, and the Il-114-300 might fit the bill. A first fully Russian-made Il-114-300 is not expected to be completed before 2021, with tentative plans for operational service, in passenger configuration, from 2023. Thereafter, time will tell if the aircraft provides a much-needed successor to some of Russia’s military special-mission platforms."
Additional Russia News & Commentary:
December 16, 2020 | "Competition in the Arctic is heating up and the Netherlands, along with other NATO members, is preparing for potential conflict in the region. Dutch Marine units will soon be armed with machine guns mounted on small sleds, known as pulks. The Netherlands Marine Corps recently acquired these and three other types of pulks to be better prepared to operate with the country's other NATO allies?in the increasingly strategic Arctic region."
AFRICA |?Central African Republic, Nigeria, Somalia
December 18, 2020?|?"The Air Force is currently testing a prototype of its new drone-killing microwave weapon 'in a real-world setting' in Africa. The move is a major step forward for the service’s directed energy efforts. First unveiled by the Air Force Research Laboratory in June 2019 as a specialized new base defense system, the Tactical High Power Microwave Operational Responder (THOR) is designed to 'disrupt and destroy the performance of drones or swarms of drones' using high-powered microwaves."
December 18, 2020?|?"The Nigerian military rescued the 344 boys who had been kidnapped last week during an attack on the Government Science Secondary School in Katsina.?The rescue operation was conducted late Thursday by military forces. Last Friday, over 100 gunmen on motorcycles attacked the school. The schoolboys bolted for safety, but 344 of them were rounded up by the gunmen and led away. It is now appearing that the kidnappers were not members of the Boko Haram terrorist group but bandits who operate in the area."
Supporting Article:
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC: Central African Republic Up For Grabs As Coup Looms
December 20, 2020 | "Government officials from the Central African Republic have accused former President Fran?ois Bozizé of attempting a coup.?The three main armed rebel groups in the country have formed a coalition against the government and are seeking to elect former President Fran?ois Bozizé to power. The presidential elections are scheduled for December 27. Bozizé and his forces are currently in the town of Bossembele, about 90 miles from the capital. They have publicly expressed their intentions to march to the capital."
December 20, 2020?|?"The Pentagon announced Dec. 4 that President Donald Trump ordered AFRICOM to reposition the majority of personnel and assets out of Somalia by early 2021. Some number of troops are moving to other bases in east Africa, which could include Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti or Manda Bay in Kenya, though AFRICOM boss Army Gen. Stephen Townsend did not elaborate. A limited force presence will remain in Somalia, according to AFRICOM."
Supporting News & Commentary:
MIDDLE EAST & CENTRAL ASIA |?Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey
December 14, 2020?|?"The United States has slapped sanctions on the Turkish government’s top defense procurement and military-industrial arm over the country’s purchase of the Russian-made S-400?air defense system. As well as targeting important members of the country’s defense establishment, there are also provisions that could threaten Turkey’s ability to secure future defense-related exports from the United States."
December 14, 2020?|?"In a surprising turn of events, Russia and the Syrian government of Bashar Assad have agreed with the U.S.-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to establish three joint military observation posts in the town of Ayn Issa. Ayn Issa is of crucial importance since it links Aleppo to al-Hasakah and is located along the strategically important M-4 highway that connects the northeastern with the western part of the country. The posts will monitor the ceasefire and any violations by Turkish-proxy militias in the region."
December 14, 2020?|?"Saudi Arabian authorities say an attack on a Singapore-flagged oil tanker?BW Rhine, which took place at an oil terminal in the port city of Jeddah in the Red Sea earlier today, was carried out using an explosive-laden boat. This is a tactic that Iranian-backed Houthi rebels based in Yemen have used on multiple occasions. It also follows a string of attacks and attempted attacks targeting tankers and other coastal oil infrastructure in this region, some of which bore certain hallmarks of other past incidents linked to Iran and its regional proxies."
December 17, 2020?|?"Afghan security forces are reportedly on the lookout for the use of small, magnetic 'sticky bombs' that, placed under the vehicles of unsuspecting targets, have accounted for a growing number of fatalities among Afghan officials in recent weeks. These improvised explosives have killed at least 10 Afghan government officials and their aides in the last several weeks, according to both unnamed senior Afghan security officials and Western diplomats."
Additional Afghanistan News & Commentary:
December 21, 2020?|?"The U.S. Navy publicly announced the transit of USS?Georgia, one of its four Ohio-class guided-missile submarines, from the Gulf of Oman into the Persian Gulf. The USS Georgia?passed?through the Strait of Hormuz?on Dec. 21, 2020, accompanied by two Ticonderoga-class cruisers, the USS?Port Royal?and USS?Philippine Sea."
INDO-PACIFIC | India
December 18, 2020?|?"The Indian Air Force will receive six second-hand A320 airliners outfitted with indigenous radars to serve as airborne early warning and control platforms, keeping watch over vast swaths of airspace and managing the air battle in potential future conflicts. The proposal would plug what’s seen as a widening gap in aerial surveillance capabilities and could end up saving New Delhi a lot of money in the process."
领英推荐
THE UNITED STATES MILITARY
JOINT OPERATIONS: Navy, Marine Corps, Coast Guard Release Maritime Strategy
December 17, 2020?|?"Advantage at Sea provides guidance to the Naval Service for the next decade to prevail across a continuum of competition—composed of interactions with other nations from cooperation to conflict. This strategy emphasizes the following five themes. We must fully leverage the complementary authorities and capabilities of the Naval Service to (1) generate Integrated All-Domain Naval Power. We must (2) strengthen our alliances and partnerships— our key strategic advantage in this long-term strategic competition—and achieve unity of effort. We must operate more assertively to (3) prevail in day-to-day competition as we uphold the rules-based order and deter our competitors from pursuing armed aggression. If our rivals escalate into conflict, becoming our adversaries, we must (4) control the seas to deny their objectives, defeat their forces, protect our homeland, and defend our allies. And, we must boldly (5) modernize the future naval force to maintain credible deterrence and preserve our advantage at sea."
Supporting Articles:
Additional Joint Operations News & Commentary:
December 12, 2020?|?"Laser weapons, electronic warfare, long-range precision-strike weapons, and over-the-horizon missile attacks are but merely a few of the expanded maritime warfare mission sets planned for the U.S. Navy's new fleet of DDG 51 Flight III destroyers, a new class of warship intended to propel the service’s ability to wage massive war on the open seas."
Additional U.S. Navy News & Commentary:
U.S. MARINE CORPS: Marine Infantry Training Shifts From ‘Automaton’ To Thinkers, As School Adds Chess To The Curriculum
December 15, 2020?|?"The Marine Corps is about to revolutionize infantry training, more than doubling the length of initial training for enlisted infantry Marines and weighing consolidation of its core grunt specialties into a single, all-around infantry warfighter. The transition – which aims to build Marines adept in ground weaponry that can tackle the higher-end threats they will face on the dispersed battlefields of the future – will focus as much on brains as brawn."
Additional U.S. Marine Corps News & Commentary:
U.S. ARMY: Israeli, Serbian, And Swedish Self-Propelled Howitzers Are Headed To A U.S. Army Shoot-Off
December 18, 2020?|?"Self-propelled howitzer designs from Israel, Serbia, and Sweden, as well as American models, will take part in a U.S. Army shoot-off at Yuma Proving Ground in Arizona early next year. The service is looking for new mobile artillery piece for its brigades equipped with Stryker wheeled armored vehicles, which are presently equipped with towed 155mm M777 howitzers."
Additional U.S. Army News & Commentary:
U.S. AIR FORCE: Artificial Intelligence Takes Control Of A U-2 Spy Plane's Sensors In Historic Flight Test
December 16, 2020?|?"Artificial intelligence-driven algorithms controlled sensor and navigation systems on a U.S. Air Force U-2S Dragon Lady spy plane in a flight test yesterday. The service says that this is the first time that artificial intelligence has been "safely" put in charge of any U.S. military system and appears to be the first time it has been utilized on a military aircraft anywhere in the world, at least publicly."
Additional U.S. Air Force News & Commentary:
U.S. SPACE FORCE: Space Force Troops Finally Have A Name: Guardians
December 18, 2020?|?"The fledgling U.S. Space Force has announced the name by which its members will be called: Guardians. This is one of the last remaining organizational changes for America's newest branch to make to give it a distinct from its parent, the U.S. Air Force.?"
Additional U.S. Space Force News & Commentary:
U.S. Naval Update Map: Carrier Strike Groups & Amphibious Ready Groups
Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs) are the primary tools the United States uses to maintain global shipping lanes free of coercion, to deter aggression, and to posture for potential future military operations. The presence or absence of CSGs and ARGs in different regions may give indications of what security threats U.S. senior leaders are concerned of, as well as make the probability of conflict more or less likely.
A?Carrier Strike Group (CSG)?is composed of roughly 7,500 personnel, an aircraft carrier, at least one?cruiser, a destroyer squadron of at least two destroyers or frigates, and a carrier air wing of 65 to 70 aircraft. A carrier strike group also, on occasion, includes submarines, attached logistics ships, and a supply ship.?
An?Amphibious Ready Group (ARG)?consists of a naval element—a group of warships known as an Amphibious Task Force (ATF)—and a Landing Force (LF) of U.S. Marines or U.S. Army Soldiers, in total about 5,000 personnel. Together, these elements and supporting units are trained, organized, and equipped to perform amphibious operations in wartime and humanitarian operations in peacetime.
NOTE:?These are approximate (not actual) positions, based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. The source of this information can be found HERE.
● DEPLOYMENT: The?USS Nimitz?(CVN-68)?Carrier Strike Group (CSG) and the USS Makin Island?(LHD-8)?Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), with the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) embarked, are operating off the Horn of Africa. Both the Nimitz CSG and the Makin Island ARG are in place off the coast of Somalia during OPERATION OCTAVE QUARTZ, a U.S. Africa Command mission to reposition U.S. forces from Somalia to other areas in East Africa in a deliberate and conditions-based manner. The USS?Hershel “Woody” Williams?(ESB-4),?a Lewis B. Puller-class expeditionary mobile base, is also assigned to the operation. U.S. Africa Command press release HERE.
● TRAINING/WORK-UP: The?USS Gerald Ford (CVN-78)?aircraft carrier and USS Iwo Jima (LHD-7) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) with the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) embarked are underway in the Virginia Capes Operating Areas. The Ford?is doing independent steaming as part of the carrier’s 18-month post-delivery tests and trials period.
● TRAINING/WORK-UP: The USS?Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is underway in the Southern California Operating Areas. The Theodore Roosevelt CSG is underway for a sustainment exercise ahead of its second deployment since January 2020.
Previous Weekly Updates May Be Viewed Below:
About Zeph Czelusta
Zeph is a military intelligence officer with the U.S. Army National Guard. His 15-year military career with both the U.S. Army and U.S. Air Force has included three different assignments with U.S. special operations units and the DEA while deployed in Afghanistan. His career has also involved working in information operations, unmanned aerial vehicle operations, and intercontinental ballistic missiles. He has also worked with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on critical infrastructure protection issues at the national level. He holds a B.A. in Studies of War & Peace from Norwich University. He currently lives in the greater Sacramento, CA area.
Spanish Linguist @ FBI | Security analytics, Cybersecurity
4 年Insightful as usual :) May I suggest adding the Nashville bombing?
Intelligence & Homeland Security Professional | Afghanistan Veteran | Passionate About Helping Communities and Organizations Mitigate Threats And Thrive
4 年John-Paul Adrian, John Singleton, John Sweet, M.A., Joseph Reynolds-Grant, Josh S., Joshua Livingston, Joshua Meyer, Julie Skiles, LCSW, BCD, TS/SCI, Julie Stewart-Anderson, Kaliff Hill, Karen Tucker, Kenneth Miech, Kent Porter, Kevin "Keimo" Morse, Khushal Parmakhtiar, Lamar Baker, Larissa McCune, Larry Shaw, Leanna Cinquanta, Leanne Douglas, Luis A. (Tony) Parilli, Marc Allerdt, MARIA GUINDULAIN ARGANDONA, Marilyn Burden, Matt Johnson, Matt Schade, Matthew Edwards, Matthew Pecoraro, Matthew Schafer, Matthew Schroedel, Matthew Swan, Melissa Salamanca, Michael Crew, Michael Daywalt, Michael Smith, Michael St. Pierre, Nicholas E. Ortiz, Nicole Hash, Nikolai Pascal, Ondra Pyles, Patrick De Graaf, Patrick Enriquez, Patrick S., Paula Hamilton, Phillip Newman, Phillip Wilson, Reid Reyes, Richard Shank, Rob Jolly, Robert Stigers MBA, Ron-Lester Lansang, Samuel Furlong, Scott McKay, Sean Armstrong, Siobhan Coyne, Stephen Mallette, MSM-HR, Steve Wooldridge, Steven Law, Teresa Krakowiak, Terry Hicks, Thomas Hickey, Thomas Shipp, MBA, Toland Lam, Travis Kruse, PMP, Valarie Solis, William Struemke, Zac Conaway, Zoilo Diaz
Intelligence & Homeland Security Professional | Afghanistan Veteran | Passionate About Helping Communities and Organizations Mitigate Threats And Thrive
4 年Adam Lazar, PE, PMP, Adam Martinez, Adam Musielewicz, Adam Sacchetti, Adam Pickett, Adrian Cabrera, Ajay Bery, MBA, Alan Sheldon, Alex Fisher, MBA, Alex J. Longo, Alexander Cusic, Alexander Knight, Alexander Ruiz, Aliaksandr Milshyn, Alyson White, MBA, MCE, Andrew Manyen, Andrew Salloum, Angela Lipovsky, August Wilson, Ben Eastmond, Ben T., Benjamin Bragdon, Benjamin Brewster, Berkeland Diana, Bill Adams, Bond R. Eddy, Brandon Carte, Brett Rogers, Brian Nesvik, Bryan York, Cameron Stevens, Castle Cory, Chris Bigott, Christine (Chrissie) Huggins Leduc, Christopher Fink, Cole Kelly, Corrie Lentz, Craig Heilig, Dan Lotz, Danielle Czelusta, David Boettcher, David Dixon, David Dover, David Fryman, David Hodges, David King, David Riegel, David Woods, Derrick Draper, Dongsheng "Andrew" Xie, Edward Mahoney, MSM, Eric Brown-Fernandez, Eric Spratling, Evan Bock, Frank Armeson, Frank S. James, Giley (Mac) McConnell, graham ryden, Greg Porter, Heather Conway, Heeyoon Jang, Ingrid Alvarez, Jacqueline Sharon Evans, James Bithorn, James Howard, James Yurasek, MBA, Jason Buck, M.A., Jason Ruff, Jason St. Pierre, E.I.T., Javier Cruz, Javonne Mante, MBA, PMP, ITIL, CSM, SPOP, Jeffrey DeJesus, MBA, Jesse Skaggs, Jill Czelusta, john koeller