Global Assets Weekly Review
Week No. 12 (17 March 2024 to 23 March 2024)
Visit www.petebarrresearch.com/weeklyassetsreview to view the online version of the Global Assets Weekly Review with accompanying interactive charts. Visit the Global Assets Market Monitor at www.petebarrresearch.com/marketmonitor to view quantitative metrics for all global assets.
Each weekly review evaluates a broad range of 68 global assets (covering stock indices, bonds, commodities, currencies and cryptocurrencies) using the following quantitative metrics:
Weekly Performance:
Argentinian stocks were again the best performer last week, and by some margin. The S&P MERVAL Index rose by a whopping 14.8 percent over the week, improving on its 6.6 percent increase the prior week. The Nikkei 225 Index finished the week 5.6 percent higher, reversing a 2.5 percent loss the prior week.
Cryptocurrencies experienced a pullback last week with Ethereum and Bitcoin the biggest losers, declining 10.8 percent and 8.1 percent respectively. While big in absolute term, relative to their recent huge rallies, the crypto declines last week weren't that significant.
Relative volatility
Relative volatility compares the current volatility of an asset (over the past 30-days) to its longer-term volatility (over the past year). Ethereum and Bitcoin were once again the highest relative volatility assets last week. Even when accounting for their high baseline volatility levels, the price moves in Ethereum and Bitcoin are still a lot more volatile than usual at the moment.
One of the lowest relative volatility assets last week was Italy's FTSE MIB Index. Its current volatility is only 62 percent of its longer-term volatility level. As you can see in the chart below, the recent rally in the FTSE MIB Index has been extraordinarily smooth, with barely any price pullbacks.
Longest Price Trends
The S&P MERVAL continues to be the longest positively trending asset, having now spent the last 945 trading days above its 250-day moving average, a run that dates back to May 2020.
Hong Kong and Chinese stocks extended their negative price trends last week, with the Hang Seng Index having now spent 155 trading days below its 250-day moving average and 148 trading days for the Shanghai Composite Index.
Consecutive Positive/Negative Weeks
Four stock indices have risen in value for each of the past nine weeks: the S&P 500 Materials Index, the EURO STOXX 50 Index, the STOXX Europe 600 Index, and Italy's FTSE MIB Index. The persistency of the price rallies for these indices is highly unusual.
Price Breakouts
Last week saw 18 stock indices make new all-time price highs, up from 14 all-time highs the previous week. One of those all-time highs was the FT Wilshire 5000 Index, one of the broadest measures of U.S. stock market performance.
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There were no yearly negative price breakouts last week, but both the U.S. 10-Year Treasury and the U.S. 5-Year Treasury made 3-month price lows.
Trend Direction Changes
The S&P Utilities Index moved to a positive trend direction on both the short-term and medium-term timeframes last week. And a number of assets moved from flat to a long-term positive trend direction, including silver, copper and the FTSE 350 Index.
Trend State Changes
Note: An overall trend state is calculated for each global asset based on its trend directions over the short, medium and long-term timeframes.
Five assets moved into the most positive "Bull Market" trend state last week. Two assets, Mexican stocks and the USD/JPY currency pair moved to a "Bull Correction" trend state (characterised as short-term pullback with a longer-term positive trend). Singapore's STI Index moved from a "Bear Market" to a "Flat" trend state and the S&P 500 Utilities Index moved to "Bear Reversal" trend state (characterised as short and medium-term positive trends but flat price action over the longer-term).
Trend Quality Changes
Note: Trend quality measures the smoothness of a price trend. Trend quality ranges from negative (red) 5-stars to positive (green) 5-stars. A trend quality rating of negative 5-stars indicates a very smooth downward price trend, while a positive 5-stars indicates a very smooth upward trend. Lower star trend quality ratings indicate less smooth price action (3-4 stars) or choppy price action (1-2 stars).
Three stock indices moved to the top trend quality rating of positive 5-Stars last week: Malaysia's FTSE Bursa KLCI stock index and two S&P 500 sectors: the S&P 500 Industrials Index and the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index.
The asset with the highest trend quality at the moment is the S&P 500 Communication Services Index, which has maintained a positive 5-Stars rating since early December last year.
The asset with the lowest trend quality is the Hang Seng Index, which currently has a negative 4-Stars rating, up from a negative 5-Stars rating a few weeks ago.
Price Extremes
Note: Overbought and oversold price extremes are identified using a log-periodic power law model. Overbought price extremes are represented by the red circles and oversold extremes by the green circles. And there are three confidence levels for each type of price extreme (moderate, high and very high), signified by the number of circles.
As of the end of last week, 34 out 68 global assets were displaying some level of overbought price extreme. That's up from 30 assets the prior week. While there are currently no assets displaying the highest 'very high' confidence level of an overbought price extreme, there are 6 assets which are signalling a 'high' confidence level of an overbought price extreme. Among those are the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq 100 Index and the FT Wilshire 5000 Index.
There are currently no assets which are displaying oversold price extremes, down from two assets the previous week.
Disclaimer: All information is for illustrative purposes only does not represent investment advice.
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