Global Airline Seat Capacity Trends Issue #6: June 2022

The start of 2022 has been quite strong for the global aviation industry, even though there are still challenges and further recovery needed. Q1 has shown very positive year-over-year growth, with seat capacity at 1.01 billion for the quarter, an increase of 43% over the same period last year. Although it was still short 344 million seats compared to pre-pandemic levels (2019), recovery has been quite positive.

Moving on to Q2, we are seeing significant capacity growth during this quarter as well, with May 2022 at 411 million seats and June at 441 million seats, nearly 50% increases from 2021.?

As travel and border restrictions have relaxed worldwide and people start to make plans for the summer season, there is a clear uptick in the seat capacity in July for 481 million seats and August at 485 million seats which are increases of 38% and 41% respectively when compared with last year. This is positive news, as a lot of people had delayed their leisure plans due to COVID-19 and are now able to take deferred trips, which is really encouraging for the recovery of the industry.

The chart above forecasts capacity plans through the end of the year. However, the current planned capacity is not guaranteed and will be adjusted as the months get closer. Since the start of pandemic, airlines’ planning horizons have been reduced to between four and six weeks due to market uncertainty, with capacity being adjusted to meet demand closer to the operating month.

To analyze this growth more closely, we can look at the geographic demographics to better understand how each region is recovering. The following table shows capacity per region, as well as growth rates for next three months.

The highest capacity increase regions for the coming months are Europe (174.76%), South America (94%), and the Middle East (70.3%). There has been a slower capacity increase in Asia due to a re-emergence of COVID-19 in some countries.

Overall though, the current forecasts are incredibly encouraging. As restrictions are being lifted, aviation, along with the hospitality industry, is looking forward to a strong summer season for a quicker recovery.

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