Global Airline Seat Capacity Trends Issue #3: October 2021

This article is in continuation of my previous insights into global seat capacity. Past issues can be found posted on my LinkedIn profile.?

As the global aviation situation is so volatile, I thought it would be interesting to look at how the seat capacity is trending and see the monthly adjustments that are being made between what is filed two months before operation and the extent of adjustments in the month of operation. The difference between these two metrics will show how the current reality compares to initial assumptions, a perspective not commonly reported on.

Currently, in Q4 2021, there are still considerate amount of travel restrictions in place worldwide, and with various regions going through the fourth wave of the pandemic and the market being fluid, there was a downward adjustment in seats for October compared to what was initially planned for October in the month of September.

During the month of September, a total of 385.1 million departing seats were planned for October, and as of October 18, the seats have been reduced to 351.6 million, a reduction of 33.4 million seats and an 8.68% decrease, which indicates the demand is still soft and fluid.

?Looking ahead to November, the same downward adjustment can be seen. There has been a reduction of 38.6 million seats and a 9.78% reduction from what was filed in September.

Looking at the above regional trends, the most significant capacity adjustments have been in Australia with -36.44% and in Asia with -14.59%. These are the same two regions with the highest adjustment as was found in last month’s analysis. Both regions are going through various restrictions and lockdowns and are therefore seeing significant capacity adjustments.

?The following examples showcase national policies in various countries that are influencing international air travel especially in Asia and Australasia. On September 27, Australian authorities announced reopening plans that would give vaccinated citizens more freedoms than those who are unvaccinated. While not explicitly stated, this could create more opportunities for vaccinated travellers to enter and exit the country. Japan maintains a border closure policy for most travellers as case numbers and hospitalizations continue to rise. Similarly, Vietnam’s borders are closed to all non-essential travel. Entry into Malaysia is not possible for non-residents, while Malaysians are able to return home with a negative test result and mandatory quarantine. South Korea continues to allow international travel, as long as inbound travellers complete a mandatory quarantine period.

Policy decisions continue to play a major role in the recovery of the aviation industry. As we have seen throughout this article series, seat capacity adjustments are being made on a monthly basis. Even though we are seeing these tactical adjustments, the pace of overall recovery is still encouraging. Further recovery and growth will be dependent upon the total population being vaccinated, health and travel restrictions, and government policies. These things are the backbone of overall economic recovery and therefore the recovery of all industries, especially aviation.?

We will continue to monitor monthly trends and will share updates next month. In the meantime, if you have any queries or want to discuss a specific subject, please feel free to connect with me.

Thank you.

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