Ad Spend grows as we enter the Algorithmic Era

In our end of year edition of the dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts, published today, our investment analysts have revised up their forecasts and now anticipate the global advertising market to increase by $48.9 billion to reach $772.4 billion in 2024.? This is an increase of 6.8% increase year-over-year, making ad spend growth in 2024 more than twice as fast as the global economy (3.2%).

Media is the key driver for growth

Media remains a key strategic lever to drive business growth for an overwhelming majority (88%) of CMOs, and the latest forecasts suggest that planning is about to undergo a profound transformation as we enter a new era for media – the algorithmic era.

Our analysts estimate that an overwhelming majority (79.0%) of ad spend will be algorithm-driven as soon as 2027. Brands looking to thrive in this expansive landscape must master media craft to achieve the right outcomes from the algorithms.

Digital ad spend returning to double-digit growth (10.7%) is a key driver behind the investment surge in 2024, with global digital platforms such as Meta?and Amazon?reporting YOY growth in excess of 20% for the first three quarters of the year.

The pace of growth is expected to slow to 5.9% in 2025 as the new year does not offer global events as significant as the UEFA Euro and the Olympics and Paralympics to boost investments. Yet, this growth rate will still outpace the global economy by 2.7 percentage points.

Impressive growth in all regions

The Americas region is forecast to be the fastest growing region in both 2024 (8.0%) and 2025 (6.3%) to reach $384.6 billion. In the US, where the Paris Olympics and Paralympics saw record setting spending and viewership, and where political ad spending is predicted to reach unprecedented heights at $10.7 billion, 2024 is expected to close with a strong 6.7% growth to reach $319.2 billion. With streaming, retail media, paid search, and paid social continuing to garner increased investments, US ad spend growth is projected to grow at 5.0% in 2025. We also expect the Brazilian ad market to grow by 12.3% in 2024 – making it the most dynamic of the top 12 largest markets worldwide – thanks to high growth in broadcast and streaming channels, digital, and out-of-home.

Ad spend across Asia-Pacific is forecast to grow by 5.4% in 2024 and 5.8% in 2025 to reach $253.4 billion. In China, the ad market is projected to rise by 4.6% to reach $123.0 billion in 2024. Continued growth in digital (7.5%) is supported by a double-digit increase in paid social (13.0%) as platforms further integrate with commerce. Advertising in this market is expected to continue growing by 4.2% in 2025. The Indian ad market is expected to grow by 6.3% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025 to overtake Brazil as the fastest paced among the top 12 markets that year. Innovation plays a big part in the forecasts for India, with AI-driven ad placements contributing to the increase in digital ad spend (21.1% in 2024 and 20.2% in 2025).

The Europe, Middle East and Africa region is forecast to grow by 6.1% in 2024 and 5.0% in 2025 to reach $179.7 billion. In the United Kingdom, ad spend is predicted to increase by 7.5% in 2024 and by 5.7% in 2025 to reach $51.7 billion, thanks to strong growth from digital media. The performance of the English national team during the UEFA Euro boosted television investments in June and July 2024. Major sports events have also boosted 2024 ad spend forecasts in France (5.6% growth – with the Olympics and Paralympics adding an extra €200 million) and Italy (6.2% growth – with the UEFA Euro adding an extra €110 million). Increases for these markets are expected to be slower for 2025 in the absence of such sporting events, with 2.3% and 2.0% rates respectively.

Whilst it is difficult to predict future ad spend in the current macro environment, we expect 2026 to benefit from the investment boosts of the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics and Paralympics and of the FIFA Football World Cup hosted in Canada, Mexico and the United States, with a further 5.9% growth projected.

To learn about the outlook for the media industry and uncover more insights from our analysts, download the latest dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts.

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