A Glimpse to the New World Order

We all read about the recent currency turmoil in regards to Turkish Lira and Turkey's current economic challanges, which has been excarbated through the rift with the United States. In this article I will share my personal thoughts and forecast on how the new world order will shape up going forward (surely these are all personal estimates based on my understanding of the world events so read it on your own risk):

1. For all intensive purposes, the Alliance between Turkey and United States has ended. This is a major milestone in the new world order that will be established soon. The old world (economic) order was established back in 1944 with the Bretton Wood conference and it was governed by the United States to unify its allies under one umbrella against the Soviet threat. This allowed world to see an unprecedented growth and prosperity as a result of free trade that captivated the whole globe. We all sang the songs of globalism not to mention the skyrocketed human population from about 2 billion to 8 billion in less than 60 years.
2. The Soviet threat pretty much ended back in 1989 with the Fall of Berlin Wall but it took about 30 years for USA to realize that the old world order is no longer needed by it nor its benefiting its economy. US is approximately 20% of the world's economy on its own and its giant internal consumption based economy utilizes the world trade very little (Only about 8% of US GDP is export based and half of that is to NAFTA countries). As a result, US realized that sustaining this world order is costly and it no longer has any interest to continue to sustain it as the primary payor.
3. In addition to the above, US has achieved energy independent status thanks to its Shale Revolution technology. It no longer needs Middle Eastern oil and with the significant drop in Shale Operational Costs, it is now also a net-exporter of Shale oil and gas, that makes it a major player in the O&G market. This also explains the recent efforts by Trump to push the Europeans to buy US O&G instead of Russians'.
4. This inevitable pull-out of US from world order is nowadays occuring with full force thanks to Donald Trump. Surely if a different president was in charge in USA, this process could have been a bit gentle but with Trump he definitely likes to pull the band-aid without any care for the pain the other side receives. This is exactly what is happening with US Turkey relations.
5. So what will happen next? It is no doubt that Turkey will suffer deeply from the current economic events. I am however quite certain that Turkey will recover no later than 2-3 years and the economic network or alliance it will build will be the first glimpse to how the new world order will shape up, so we should all be watching how Turkey will re-rise from this process.
6. Why will Turkey rise from this economic downtuwn? It has a vibrant young population, a healthy internal consumption based economy and its proximity to energy resources it needs to fuel its needs (unlike for example China or India which has to wait the oil to flow to its shores from 1000s of miles away from one of the even more unstable region of the world - Middle East- which recently got a new oil exporting competitor (USA)).
7. Obviously US sending sanctions to various nations including one of its major military allies (Turkey), is sending cold shivers to all other major economies. For example Indian Rupee is also seeing significant melt down. This behaviour by US along with the full realization of how much each world's national economies are dependent on US and US only (the dollar denominated world banking order) - is quickly making this issue a major national security matter for all countries. This naturally will expedite each regional economies or countries to start seeking new or alternative economic alliances to form.

MY FORECAST For 2023 and BEYOND:

This is where the magic will happen. My forecast for Turkey is that it will be the main hub of a reginonal economic union (similar to EU) that includes nations such as Albania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Macedonia, Romania (partially), Bosnia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Northern Levant (new Syria and Iraq) and perhaps other neighbours. Surely this union will not right away be established with all these nations but gradually nations will willingly join to have a safeharbour of being in a network of economic safety that will also likely to forge into a military one over time for outside protection. Why wouldnt these nations want to be part of the largest military in the region?

If you look at this region the population would total to about 250M with mostly a young generation under 25 and similar cultural and economic backgrounds. They already have strong ties and experience in dealing with each other for decades (if not milleniums) before. This union would have its energy supplies as well as economic manpower, industrial know-how and regional ambitions. It basically has all the mechanics of a major regional world power waiting to form up.

I forecast that such regional economic unions will be the new norm for all other regions as well (for example EU will shrink to its original size when it was first built (Germany, BENELUX countries, France etc)- so these new 'hubs' of economic power houses will be the new way the world will continue to trade with each other. Surely my theory may have weaker arguments but this is the most logical new order layout we should see in the decades to come.