A Glimpse into 2024: An Industrial Revolution

In 2024, a seismic industry shift is underway, heralded by the release of AI Pin and enabled by OpenAI's LLM products. The combined potential of these two technologies would be revolutionary. What's special about these two technologies?

Humane's AI Pin uses voice to guide a tiny device to perform a sleuth of tasks: summarizing emails, sending messages, making calls, voice translation, playing music, taking photos, browsing the Internet, and much more. It boasts capabilities that rival, and even surpass, those of the original iPhone. AI Pin's power stems from OpenAI's GPT-4, which has reached a level of conversational fluency that was once thought impossible. In November 2023, OpenAI unveiled Whisper-3, elevating speech recognition accuracy to new heights. Additionally, OpenAI introduced six text-to-speech (TTS) voices to the public, each eerily human-like. This signifies a groundbreaking leap in speech interface: A device that speaks like a human, comprehends like a human, and possesses knowledge exceeding that of most humans.

This speech interface can be integrated into any device, be it a phone, computer, watch, or even household appliances like refrigerators. Unlike Alexa and Google Home, which primarily function as voice-activated speakers, these devices have true conversational capabilities. They actively strive to complete tasks for us, thanks to the newfound capacity of LLMs to take action in response to voice commands. OpenAI aptly calls this integration of conversation and action an "agent," effectively serving as an assistant and helper.

With such powerful speech and action capabilities, traditional user interfaces that involve typing, clicking, or scrolling will be replaced. Even phone interfaces, once dominated by multi-touch, will seem antiquated. Why bother with pinching and swiping when you can simply command your device to do your bidding? Speech interfaces liberate our hands and minds from the tedium of locating files or specific buttons to click. Our devices become more intelligent, understanding our desires. Many applications, from writing reports and editing images to ordering food, will respond to natural language requests. Instead of navigating through apps with gestures, we can simply talk to them. What was once a dream for many AI researchers is now a reality.

Of course, some individuals prefer visual interactions and may desire to see content or participate in the editing process. AI Pin showcases the technology of laser projection, where message content or a play button is projected onto your palm, controllable through gestures. Imagine projecting it onto walls, tables, or any surface, offering unparalleled freedom. While laser display technology is still in its infancy for achieving sharp images, further refinement is on the horizon. With laser display, the need for physical screens or monitors becomes obsolete. Picture yourself at home, with your device projecting all text and images onto your wall—an infinitely more engaging experience than being tethered to a desk and chair. In the future, we'll have the freedom to stand, watch a large projection on some surface, and control it with hand gestures.

The era of "icons" on laptop or phone screens will fade away. Each icon will be an app, and we'll simply command our device to open them, dictating our needs like bosses did with secretaries in the past. Words will form as we speak. This new interface will render many devices obsolete. If AI Pin can do everything a phone does, do we still need one? Perhaps for specific apps, but most tasks like calculating calories, tracking walk steps, recording memos, and reporting stock prices can be voice-activated.

Computers will follow suit. We can talk to them to create reports, crunch numbers, or make presentations while standing and dictating. No need for desks, monitors, keyboards, or mice. Important content can be projected onto the wall, responding to hand gestures. The future "computer" won't have a fixed shape; it's a small box that sits somewhere, just like today's Alexa, possibly even pin-sized. Most content resides in the cloud, and we interact with this portable device via voice. If visuals are needed, it can project laser displays. This device is very portable. We can carry it in our pocket.

We can envision numerous hardware innovations. Alongside AI Pin, we might witness the emergence of AI glasses, AI headbands, AI earrings, or AI watches (not like the iWatch, which relies on a phone as its base, but true AI watches functioning akin to AI Pin). All these devices will be worn on our bodies, constantly connected to the network, and capable of continuous communication and understanding. This will be exactly like in the movie "Her," where the protagonist talked to an earpiece (shaped like AirPods). This could become a reality as soon as next year.

We are entering an era where phones and computers are vanishing. Our personal assistant, whether a small device on our clothing (a pin), in our pocket (a box), on our ear (an earpiece), or on our wrist, will possess all the intelligence and content of a smartphone or computer.

When the demand for personal hardware diminishes, our personal lives will become more streamlined. This transformation is reminiscent of the shift from two decades ago when we had bulky computer hard drives and large desk monitors. Today, we use lightweight, compact laptops and ultra-thin screens, with traditional hard drives no longer a fixture in our homes. In the past, we carried physical players like CD players and iPods in our pockets for music, but now they have been integrated into our smartphones. This trend of integration will persist, with computing and reasoning functions moving to the cloud, while devices serve as transmitters. These devices will retain basic local functions such as speakers, receivers, and cameras (for vision), but the core processing power will reside in the cloud.

What does this mean for businesses and various industries? The proliferation of these personal AI devices signals an industry revolution set to unfold in 2024. The electronics industry will face the most substantial impact, with many electronic devices becoming obsolete. As these devices fade into obscurity, the following companies are poised for decline: Apple, Samsung, Dell, HP, and LG. This decline is driven by the diminishing demand for phones, laptops, and monitors. Let's delve into the case of Apple.

Apple's innovation pace lags behind that of startups like Humane. Its products could face disruption from AI Pin or similar devices. Apple lacks the fundamental LLM (Large Language Model) technology to compete with companies like Google and OpenAI, leading talented individuals to migrate to other AI firms. While Apple may attempt to create a competitor to AI Pin, it enters the market late and gathers less user data, limiting its ability to iterate effectively on future versions, as exemplified by Tesla's advantage in self-driving cars due to extensive user data collection. Apple's decline is not solely attributed to competition from companies like Humane but also to the reduced demand of phones in the coming years.

We will also see the decline of Google. Search has been disrupted by conversational search, and the demand for search will continue to decrease. While Google has Bard, its new functionality rollout is too slow. Google's innovation speed lags behind that of OpenAI. A larger portion of Google's revenue will come from its cloud services, but it appears to lose to Microsoft and Amazon. Google Home division will decline because a speaker-based assistant is less appealing than an assistant that is integrated into our bodies and moves around with us.

On the other hand, OpenAI will experience fast growth as it becomes the powerhouse behind all major companies' products and services, from large enterprises to startups. This prediction comes from the following reasons:

1.?????? OpenAI has better accuracy and performance in all LLMs compared to its competitors: GPT-4 for conversations, Whisper-3 for speech recognition, and Dall-E 3 for image generation. Businesses require highly accurate models to provide satisfying services to their customers. While open-source models or models from other companies may be cheaper, they cannot satisfy companies that rely on high-quality products. This is particularly true for consumer-oriented companies.

2.?????? The need for AI applications will increase, leading to a higher demand for OpenAI's products and APIs. Many companies will choose to use GPT-4 or GPT-5 as a backend, resulting in more service calls to OpenAI.

3.?????? OpenAI is more product-oriented than its competitors, such as Google or Anthropic. It has an ambitious product roadmap, as demonstrated during OpenAI DevDay. Allowing large companies to deploy in-house GPT-4 models is a game changer. Meanwhile, allowing consumers to upload their documents and build their own RAG model on the OpenAI cloud will keep consumers satisfied within OpenAI's ecosystem. With Sam Altman back at the helm of OpenAI, the focus on the product will continue. In other words, we will have confidence that OpenAI will operate like a real business, with a focus on serving its customers, rather than as a non-profit research lab.

4.?????? The speed of innovation at OpenAI is faster than that of its competitors, as demonstrated by the rapid release of new LLM models and its product innovations. This is likely the true reason why OpenAI will maintain its competitive edge.

While there are many factors that could disrupt this scenario, I predict that the year 2024 will be the year of OpenAI. If this trend continues, OpenAI could potentially become the most valuable company in the world in the foreseeable future.

In 2024, we will see the rise of many AI startups that build upon OpenAI's products. The multimodal LLMs unlock a wide array of possibilities for AI applications, including: An AI sports coach that observes your play and provides real-time corrections, an AI language coach that listens to you and offers engaging lessons tailored to your progress, an AI assistant that helps you with research and crafting project proposals, a marketing assistant responsible for writing and managing your social media posts, an AI friend who keeps you entertained and happy. And these are just a few examples among many others.

The year 2024 will see the rise of agents, or AI assistants, as more actions are added to AI models. It's a year in which we will witness the emergence of many new AI applications, making their way onto tiny devices like AI Pins. All of these advancements will make our lives easier and more productive. It's an exciting year to work in the AI industry.