A glimpse into 2024: Anticipating the decline of fossil fuels

Could 2024 be the downfall of the fossil fuel era?

Recent developments suggest a potential turning point in the global fight against climate change, as experts indicate that 2023 may have marked the peak of worldwide carbon emissions stemming from energy use. This milestone is hailed as a crucial moment in the effort to curb emissions, showing a potential shift towards a decline in the global fossil fuel economy.

The assessment made by a growing number of climate analysts demonstrates the possibility that last year could be remembered as the pinnacle of annual emissions before a sustained downturn begins.

However, while this development is a positive step, many climate experts note that it falls short of the rapid reductions urgently required to combat the looming climate crisis, emphasising that such an inflection point should have been reached earlier.

Urgent climate action is still needed

The necessity of transitioning to cleaner energy sources becomes increasingly apparent in achieving substantial and rapid reductions in carbon emissions. The recent developments serve as a reminder of the progress made, but they also underscore the urgency for more aggressive measures to secure a sustainable and habitable future for generations to come.

Leading climate scientists have consistently warned about the detrimental impact of carbon dioxide buildup in the Earth's atmosphere. They stress the necessity of slashing emissions before 2030 to limit global heating to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Achieving this ambitious goal demands a level of global transformation that, according to most experts, has not yet been fully initiated.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) earlier raised hopes by predicting a potential end to the fossil fuel era, foreseeing a decline in oil, gas, and coal consumption before 2030 due to the implementation of climate policies.

A report examining power generation across 78 countries, representing 92% of global electricity demand, revealed a notable increase in solar and wind power output. Solar power generation surged by 16%, while global wind power output saw a 10% increase, suggesting a growing shift toward renewable energy sources.

While these advancements offer a glimmer of hope, the collective global efforts must intensify, and ambitious actions must be taken swiftly.

The UK has halved its greenhouse gas emissions since 1990

The UK has reached a significant milestone on its journey to net zero: it has now halved its greenhouse gas emissions since 1990. This is a remarkable achievement, especially considering that the economy has grown by 75% in the same period.

Two main methods have been used to measure the UK's progress:

1. Comparing the 1990 baseline:?According to this metric,?the UK has reduced its emissions by 49%.
2. Comparing its peak in 1971:?Based on this starting point,?the UK has actually reduced its emissions by 52%.

No matter which metric you use, it is clear that the UK is making significant progress towards its net zero target. This is in stark contrast to other major countries, such as the United States and China, whose emissions are still on the rise.

So, what has the UK done right? Firstly, the UK’s large investment in renewable energy?has seen the rise of one of the largest offshore wind farms in the world, as well as other significant developments,?the UK continues to invest heavily in other forms of renewable energy,?such as solar power.

In doing so, the UK has already improved national energy efficiency, particularly with significant progress in making its homes and businesses more energy efficient.

Finally, the UK has spent a lot of money and time electrifying transport, which is one of the biggest carbon emitters. The UK is phasing out the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030,?and it is investing in electric vehicles and charging infrastructure.

Of course, there is still a long way to go. The next few years will be even more challenging than the first half of the journey. But the UK's progress so far is a cause for celebration, and it shows that it is possible to achieve net zero without harming the economy.

The British government has not yet appointed a new chair for emission targets

Rishi Sunak has come under fierce criticism from UK climate experts for the Conservative government’s negligence in appointing a new chair for the independent committee that advises ministers on emissions targets over the last 18 months.

Established under the 2008 Climate Change Act, the Climate Change Committee plays a pivotal role in guiding national policies on emissions control and preparing for the impacts of global warming. The committee has previously criticised Britain's inadequate performance in crucial areas like flood defences and domestic energy efficiency.

In July 2022, it was announced that Lord Deben would continue as chair for an additional nine months while the search for a replacement ensued. However, a year and a half later, the position remains vacant, with Prof Piers Forster serving as the interim head.

The prolonged delay in appointing a new chair for this vital committee underscores concerns about the government's commitment to addressing climate change effectively. The impasse threatens to hinder crucial policy decisions and erodes the UK's credibility in the global fight against climate crisis.

In a letter to the prime minister leaked to the Observer, the UK’s leading organisation working on the economic effects of global warming condemned the “excessive delay” in finding a replacement to the previous chair, Lord Deben.

Bob Ward, the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change’s head of policy, warned Sunak that the delay is harming efforts to control carbon emissions and damaging the UK’s reputation as a climate change leader.

"The delay is harming efforts to control carbon emissions and damaging the UK’s reputation as a climate change leader"

“Given that the recruitment of the new chair began 18 months ago it is inexplicable that the appointment has still not been announced,” wrote Ward. The work of the committee is at a “critical stage”, he added. “It is not helpful that it does not yet have a new chair as it carries out this work.”

The economist Lord Stern, who is chair of the institute, said: “It seems to be yet another signal that the government does not take climate change policy seriously enough. All this is damaging the confidence of other countries and of investors in the UK’s commitment to climate action.”

The failure to appoint a new committee chair is just one among several instances showing Sunak's inconsistent approach to his party's environmental pledges

This year, Sunak further disappointed environmentalists when he announced legislation for an annual system of oil and gas licensing in the North Sea which followed a scaling back of other measures including delays to a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars.

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