GIS Weekly Brief

?? Weekly update by Prince Michael von Liechtenstein

The United States, Germany, Ukraine and Russia are dominating headlines. President Donald Trump is implementing plans to streamline the U.S. administration. Meanwhile, the possibility of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire is growing and Germany’s election results are sparking debate. All this masks China’s activities in the Asia-Pacific region.

China is preparing for a protracted conflict with the U.S. and its allies, evident in its economic and security strategies. Beijing appears more willing to support private entrepreneurs, recognizing that an economy cannot prosper solely through state-owned enterprises.?

At the same time, the Chinese Navy is growing more assertive in the South China Sea and recently conducted a small drill in the waters between Australia and New Zealand, well outside its usual sphere. This has raised serious concerns in Canberra and seems like a planned provocation.

China will not abandon its claim to Taiwan. It will use any combination of military or political means to take control of the island – a declared nationalistic objective. Believing that Beijing will soften its assertive stance would be an illusion.

?? This week’s relevant geopolitical events

• Abdullah Ocalan, a leader of the PKK – a Kurdish terrorist organization targeting Turkey – has?called for the group’s dissolution. The move appears realistic, supported by developments in Syria.
• President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s visit to the White House was messy, possibly spurring Europe to rethink its responsibilities toward Ukraine. Regardless of any negotiation outcomes, Kyiv will need strong European economic and defense support.
• European leaders?demonstrated unusual resolve?at Sunday’s summit to boost military aid – independent of the European Union.
• New demographic data from Japan underscores a bleak outlook?– also applicable to Europe and China. Birthrates are set to hit another low in 2024, and the population is projected to shrink by 30 percent over the next 40 years, to 87 million. Forty percent will be older than 65.
• The U.S. is taking a harsher stance on Nicolas Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, revoking the last license for a U.S. oil company to operate in the country, which was granted to Chevron in 2022.

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