GIS Weekly Brief #8

?? Weekly update by Prince Michael von Liechtenstein

Venezuela has been gripped by unrest following disputed elections. Incumbent President Nicolas Maduro and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) have claimed victory, but exit polls painted a different picture – it seems clear the official results were manipulated. Given Venezuela’s dire economic situation and widespread discontent, President Maduro likely felt compelled to ensure his reelection at any cost, as defeat could have led to his imprisonment, or worse.?

Venezuela is not alone in experiencing democratic backsliding. Authoritarians often manipulate electoral processes to maintain power while preserving the appearance of democratic legitimacy. As the famous quote often attributed to Joseph Stalin goes: “It doesn’t matter who votes or how, it only matters who counts the votes and how.” This cynical approach to democracy persists in many authoritarian regimes.

Unfortunately, there are doubts about democratic legitimacy in some Western countries as well, where concerns have arisen about the ways in which political parties use, or misuse, public funds to attract voters through handouts. While these measures may appeal to certain demographics, they may not serve the long-term interests of the entire population. Moreover, these expenditures represent taxpayer money, not the personal wealth of politicians or party officials.

Tax revenue is entrusted to governments by citizens with the expectation that it will be used responsibly to advance the public good. While not fraudulent as in authoritarian regimes, the misuse of public funds by politicians constitutes a breach of trust.

?? This week’s relevant geopolitical events

• The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July?from 4.1% in June, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. This trend may prompt the Fed to consider easing monetary policy as it signals potential recession.
• Large student-led riots have erupted in Bangladesh?over the government's employment quota system favoring veterans and their families from the 1971 independence war. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was in her fourth term, has reportedly resigned as a result of the clashes.
• In Ankara,?24 prisoners were exchanged?between Russia and Belarus on one side, and the U.S., Germany, Slovenia, Poland and Norway on the other. While viewed as a diplomatic success, the details of the deal are less clear-cut.
• Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed?by a short-range projectile in Tehran. Similarly, on July 29, Israeli forces killed Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut. Retaliation has begun, raising the threat of renewed conflict in Lebanon.

***

For more geopolitical insights, visit our website and follow us on LinkedIn.