GIS Weekly Brief #32
Geopolitical Intelligence Services
We provide analysis and forecasting on world affairs, written by leading global experts.
?? Weekly update by Prince Michael von Liechtenstein
Germany has voted. The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) emerged as the strongest force – no surprise. The party leader, Friedrich Merz, will now be tasked with forming a government, and he is poised to become chancellor.
Germany has experienced about 20 years of stagnation. The previous coalition saw the Greens perform poorly, and the Social Democrats did not fare any better.The CDU/CSU still shoulders the legacy of Angela Merkel’s left-leaning coalition, which made stagnation a hallmark. Ms. Merkel once sidelined Mr. Merz from politics, and many hope he will revive conservative policies and sound finances.
Because Ms. Merkel shifted the CDU so far to the left, some conservative voters have turned to the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Now at about 20 percent, the AfD is the country’s second-largest political force. It is a broad-based party that draws support from those frustrated with immigration policies and disenchanted middle-class voters, many of whom once supported the Social Democrats or the conservatives. The largest losses went to the chancellor’s Social Democrats, while the far left gained ground.
In a move of questionable democratic spirit, Mr. Merz and other established parties have preemptively excluded any coalition or cooperation with the AfD – a tactic known as the firewall.
A new coalition with the Social Democrats, preferred by many for its safe majority, would likely prolong the stagnation. Mr. Merz may try to govern with a minority cabinet, seeking support issue by issue. However, his own party leaders say they will not accept measures that pass only with AfD votes, citing the firewall.
Mr. Merz now finds himself in a trap: He will have to choose whether to prioritize Germany’s best interests or preserve that firewall. This dilemma will define his chancellorship.
领英推荐
?? This week’s relevant geopolitical events
***
In search of the better world.
4 周The German election results are notable mainly for the CDU/CSU's dominance, but the real geopolitical risk lies in Europe's failure to adapt to the U.S.'s shifting dynamics. This divergence is becoming increasingly significant, and the ongoing stagnation in Germany, compounded by Merkel’s leftward shift, is creating a political trap for Friedrich Merz. The priority should be on Germany’s adaptation to evolving global realities rather than the typical political outcomes.
Policy Researcher and Institutional Consultant
4 周The far-right parties get traction in France and Germany reducing the power of centralists and the left leaning conservatives shutting doors and policies that support migrants.
Researcher, Consultant, Educator, Enterpreneur
4 周What are you basing on while interpretation?