GIS Weekly Brief #10

?? Weekly update by Prince Michael von Liechtenstein

The German coalition government has finally announced a compromise on the budget. It appears to be an agreement based on the lowest common denominator, with several notable weaknesses – chief among them that around 12 billion euros in expenses remain unfunded. So far, this government’s track record is riddled with contradictions and a glaring lack of leadership. Its only notable achievement seems to be combating an imagined threat to democracy from the right.?

Public trust in this government’s abilities is exceedingly low. In the upcoming elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the three coalition parties are likely to secure only about 15 percent of the vote combined.?In 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised a “Zeitenwende” (turning point) for German defense, including adequate defense spending. It was reaffirmed that Germany would meet NATO’s agreed-upon commitment of spending 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense.?

This promise, however, is not reflected in the 2025 budget. Having already undermined the government’s credibility domestically, this lack of commitment to defense now threatens the country’s credibility on the international stage.

?? This week’s relevant geopolitical events

• Israel conducted preventive airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, followed by a retaliatory strike from Hezbollah over the recent killing of commander Fuad Shukr. The situation risks escalation, potentially destabilizing Lebanon.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a potential interest rate cut, signaling concerns over a possible recession and a policy shift from inflation control to job support.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign in key swing states and endorsed Donald Trump, an estimated 4-5% of voters had backed Kennedy up to this point.
• After a recent visit to Moscow,?Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to Kyiv. Public statements emphasized peace, but the core discussions remain undisclosed.
• A man in Germany killed three people and injured others in a knife attack. Knife attacks and sexual assualts are becoming more frequent, with a disproportionately high number involving individuals with migrant backgrounds. Despite this, the government’s response focuses only on restricting knife possession, a measure police deem ineffective.

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