Ghost Flights Are a Phantom Problem. Also: Jet Fuel Prices in 2022 and Looking at the Aviation Value Chain

Welcome back! We're going to take a short break over the holidays but your favorite newsletter will be back early in 2023. If this is a special time of the year for you, we wish you health, happiness and good times with friends and family. Before we go, let's get to it one last time in 2022.

Ghost Flights are a Phantom Problem

“Ghost flights” are among the most misunderstood phenomena in air transport .

A ghost flight has no formal definition but is generally considered to be a flight that operates on less than 10% passenger capacity.

With aviation’s environmental footprint under close scrutiny, it is understandable that the issue of such flights has been getting attention. But how bad is the problem?

One report in the UK’s Guardian newspaper in September 2022 said that 5,000 “empty”, and 35,000 flights with less than 10% occupancy, had flown in the United Kingdom since 2019.

The story had significant flaws, however.

Continue reading about the ghost flights non-story and important questions that need to be answered on slot allocation rules .

Chart of the Week: 2023 to Bring Further Passenger Recovery but Softer Cargo

Air cargo played a critical role during the pandemic, ensuring vital vaccines could be made available globally and that businesses and economic activity continued to function despite the extraordinary circumstances.

In 2023, total?airline?revenue should increase to an estimated 93% of the pre-pandemic level , driven by the recovery in passenger traffic.

Air cargo revenue looks set to moderate next year, to around USD 150 billion, reflecting both softer volumes and yields. Air cargo’s share of total revenue will therefore ease further, to around 20%.

Although this rebalancing of airline revenue was to be expected, it is noteworthy that cargo revenue in 2023 will still be around 50% higher than the level seen in 2019 – highlighting the ongoing important role played by the?cargo?sector in the post-pandemic industry and economic recovery.

Learn more about the?#WeeklyChart ?and the ongoing recovery in 2023 .

Understanding the Pandemic’s Impact on the Aviation Value Chain

The aviation business is truly interconnected.

Pre-pandemic, the aviation value chain overall did not generate the economic returns its investors expect. This was led primarily by the large economic losses of the core sector, airlines, which remain in a challenging market structure and context.

COVID-19?led to significant value loss for all sectors, apart from cargo-focused ones.

As aviation emerges from the pandemic, there is an opportunity to expand the value created for all participants in the value chain . This requires performance improvement within each sector and also requires greater collaboration and fresh ways of working across partners in the value chain.

Jet Fuel Prices (as of 16 December)

Video of Week: Prepare for High Volumes of Passengers During the Holiday Peak

Learn more about Timatic .

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