Getting Out of the Weeds

When I build a budget or growth model for a business, I don’t just crunch numbers—I get a deep understanding of their commercial and operational plans.

I see how the business works, what the vision is, and what needs to change to hit the next stage of growth.

Which is great.

Until it isn’t.

The problem with getting deep into the weeds is that it’s easy to lose sight of the bigger picture.

And if you don’t zoom out, something will get missed.

Something that made perfect sense in the details will look completely bonkers when you step back.

So, how do you avoid this?

Here are three things I do to sanity-check my models before signing off on them.

1?? Summarise Year-on-Year Movements

The first step is creating a high-level summary—something that shows revenue, costs, and margins year on year.

?? Gross margin trends: Staying flat or improving? Any unexpected dips?

?? Revenue growth vs. cost growth: Is revenue outpacing OpEx? If not, why?

?? Headcount costs vs. revenue: If salaries are scaling faster than revenue, is there a strategic reason?

A simple table can highlight any red flags before they become bigger problems.

2?? Review Year-on-Year KPI Trends

Numbers tell a story—but so do the underlying metrics.

I look at both financial and non-financial KPIs, including:

Customer growth, churn, and conversion rates

CAC, LTV, and other financial efficiency metrics

Marketing, product, and operational KPIs

Then, I sanity-check these movements against the assumptions in the financial model. Are they aligned with what the business can actually achieve?

3?? Chart Everything (Yes, Everything)

Finally, I spend time creating as many charts as possible—line charts, bar charts, trend graphs. I compare prior years with the budgeted year and look for patterns:

?? Unexpected seasonality that wasn’t factored in

?? Year-on-year trends that don’t make sense month-to-month

?? The infamous hockey stick growth projection—is it realistic?

A personal favourite? Headcount hires.

Every model seems to assume everyone is hired in Q1, with nothing in Q3 or Q4. Is that really how recruitment works?

Whenever I skip this step, I regret it—because every time I go back and chart the data, I find something that needs fixing.

The takeaway? It’s easy to get buried in the details of financial modelling.

But if you don’t take time to step back and sanity-check assumptions, the numbers can start to tell a story that doesn’t reflect reality.

What’s your process for gut-checking a financial model?

Drop a comment and let me know.

Alysha Randall is the Founder of Financial Leadership Foundations which helps new or aspiring finance leaders within start-ups and scale-ups.

She is a professional finance trainer in the start-up and scale-up space. If you're looking to strengthen your finance function and upskill, join our free weekly workshops.

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