Getting to 100%

This New Year’s Day is special as it historically ushers one of the most important decades for humanity and all life on this planet. From its birth (1970s), rebirth (1990s), expansion (2000s) and development (2010s), renewable energy is now at the threshold of transitioning to a ubiquitous, commercial reality in the 2020s. Simultaneously, the threat of climate change, initially conceived by Charles Keeling in the 1950s and codified the 1980s by James Hansen, has finally emerged front and center into popular consciousness and there is momentum

Today, the question is not can or whether we should build a 100% renewable energy economy, but how we can accomplish such a paradigm shift in the shortest time possible to avert the worst impacts from climate change. On this first day of a new decade, we must start down a path towards eliminating our emissions so that achieving 100% clean energy will not only transform how we generate and consume energy, but become an intrinsic element of a larger plan to equitably provide shelter, nutrition, transportation and health to all members of society.

Beginning today, I will be posting a weekly blog called “Getting to 100%” that examines the various opportunities, issues and barriers to quickly building a clean energy infrastructure. Below are is a partial list of macro objectives, in no particular order, that will need to be addressed and resolved:

1.     Enrolling local governments and communities to make energy part of the general planning process while creating a clear and understandable energy language. This variable is probably the most critical in opening the floodgates for widespread development of DERs. FYI, I’m participating in a policy focus group headed by The Climate Center to develop Advanced Community Energy (ACE), a policy initiative that establishes a collaborative platform for communities and utilities in creating ACE systems integral to local energy resilience. Advancing the ACE initiative will require extensive community support, so a critical element will be developing a frame easily understood by the general public.

2.     Developing cost and revenue metrics that properly incentivize investment. All relevant generation, storage and delivery costs must be integrated into the price. For revenue, the ability to store and deliver energy over long periods, plus applicable uses in multiple industries, will be fundamental metrics in building a renewable energy economy. For an example, please consider the discussion below concerning integrating transmission costs.

3.     Equitably balancing centralized and distributed energy infrastructure. In areas vulnerable to climate change disruption, distributed energy resources (DERs) and systems (microgrids) will need to be deployed quickly and effectively to insulate critical facilities such as hospitals, schools, public works and other businesses with mission critical operations. Conversely, utility-scale facilities tied to transmission infrastructure will accommodate electrification of transportation and manufacturing, but related costs must be integral to the price paid by consumers. Only through incorporating transmission costs into the price of remotely generated energy will a level playing field be created both kinds of infrastructure. Ultimately, a modernized energy infrastructure will offer revenue opportunities for utilities and independent system operators that effectively manage energy from the source of generation to the nearest point of consumption.

4.     Transitioning and re-purposing existing resources and infrastructure. Part of a solution will be allowing for limited operation of gas-fired generation and internal combustion vehicles using carbon-neutral synthetic and biofuels. For transportation, we must also invest heavily in rail and other mass transit to provide a level of service and benefits that will get people to leave their cars. Finally, it should be noted that human labor and ingenuity is the most neglected resource of all and is potentially the most valuable in strengthening our energy economy.

5.     Designing energy systems that target peak loads and maximize resource development, with planned uses for generation of excess energy. Below is a graph outlining CAISO’s annual load profile for 2015. Assuming a site has potential generation capacity in excess of all peak conditions, at what level should an owner target generation in order to maximize site resiliency? In a properly designed system, the answer would be the highest level possible that addresses all but the highest load scenarios.

Clean Coalition, “Transmission Access Charges (TAC) Webinar - California’s transmission costs are exorbitant and growing fast, but the fix is easy,” March 30, 2017, p. 16 (min./max. resiliency lines and excess energy zone added for discussion purposes).

6.     Moving past our lithium-ion fixation and embracing a range of storage technologies that best serve identified needs. A useful analogy involves the various types of computer data storage, where each type has speed and capacity parameters which make it ideal for a particular purpose, and a spectrum of technologies is employed to achieve peak performance. Such is the situation with energy storage. Just as a computer needs fast memory to instantly perform highly redundant tasks, an optimal energy system will use high response supercapacitors and li-ion batteries for frequency regulation and other short duration services. At the other end of the spectrum, utility-scale gravity systems and modular electrolysis equipment are needed to excess energy (that today would be otherwise curtailed) into a long duration, high value energy reserves with dispatchable properties similar to fossil fuels.

7.     Building synergies between energy, housing, transportation, water, waste and agricultural sectors. Solutions focused in one sector must consider ancillary impacts and synergies with other sectors and strive to contribute and not hinder overall progress. Below is a graphical illustration, inspired by writings of Lorenzo Kristov, that shows possible intersections between these various sectors.

Everyone in my LinkedIn network has passion, knowledge and expertise in areas intrinsic to these issues, and my hope is that through these postings, a conversation will be started that brings clarity to how we can all realize and 100% renewable energy future. I am fully aware that many of you have forgotten more than I will ever know in your respective fields, so please let me know when I have erred in characterizing some element in this incredibly complex problem.

Here’s to a productive and successful decade!!