Get trends clear – they give us our running orders!

Written 5th June 2020

“Instead of being ‘heads down’ we should be ‘heads up’ so we can spot trends” - Venture capitalist, Josh Linkner, the Founder of ePrize.

Wondrous trait: One of the most amazing, and wondrous traits of human beings, is our ability to adapt, change, transform, even in the most dangerous, crisis-ridden situations.

Which is why, “Trend is not destiny”.  For, whenever, we individually, or collectively, spot, and deep dive into, a dangerous or unfavourable trend, typically we act to make sure it does not occur. Or, at least, to ensure its severity is contained.

Equally, and especially for those of us who run businesses, when we see a favourable trend, we hitchhike a ride. And we multiply, leverage, scale-up the trend.

So our very act of us trend-spotting changes the trend! And, typically, we change the trend for better, or less worse. Yippee! That’s the theory, anyway. Because the core variables are: 

• how we act
• how hard we act
• how fast we act, and
• how much we act in concert with others… 

Our current pandemic is, of course, a perfect example.

We need new running orders! Right now, with global warming and the global pandemic, we are in the middle of World War 111, but without the guns and bombs. The pandemic has escalated, and reached every corner of the globe, far quicker than any event in our recent history. Probably quicker than any event in all of human history.

Like other dis-eases, such as small pox, tuberculosis and polio, even when vaccines are found, the covid-19 viruses will take at least this whole decade to eradicate. In the meantime, it’s likely we’ll experience a resurgence in individual countries. And, also, other corona viruses, like MERS and SARS, could become virulent. God forbid.

So, it’s clear, we all need fresh running orders.

Transformation upon transformation Importantly, the changes brought by the pandemic, have also brought to a tipping point, a number of other favourable and unfavourable trends that existed before this year.  

These tsunamis of trends will ripple, and cascade, throughout this whole decade.

Collectively they will compound, and make this decade, the most disruptive, and transformative, of any, since humankind evolved on this planet.

 Clarify our running orders So! What’s vital now is that, individually and collectively, we draw up our list of favourable and unfavourable trends… As we see them to be relevant, of course.  These trends give all of us - and especially those of us who have founded SMEs - our running orders. 

#HowCome? Well, because the trends, we identify, and relate to, point us to:

• what we seek to de-escalate, or avoid. Fast!
• what we adapt to. Fast!
• what we hitch our future-creating wagons to. Fast!

Self-fulfilling prophecy: As we get the trends relevant to us really clear in our minds, we create either the Pygmalion effect, or the Golem effect:

The Pygmalion effect is a how our high expectations lead to higher performance. The name comes from the story of Pygmalion, a mythical Greek sculptor.

According to those clever ancient Greeks, whose myths always reveal deep truths about life and human behaviour, Pygmalion, a sculptor, carved an ivory statue of an ideal woman. Then he became enamoured with his creation. [Just like we all do, with, our own-created businesses, homes, gardens, and works of art]. 

Unable to love a real woman, Pygmalion, prayed to the goddess of love, Aphrodite. Aphrodite took pity on Pygmalion and brought the statue to life. The couple married and birthed a daughter, Paphos. And, of course, like in all mythical stories, they lived happily ever after.

In the same way that Pygmalion’s passion for his statue brought it to life, our focus on a belief, assumption, or trend, that we ‘fall in love with’, also brings it to life, and makes it happen!

The flipside is the Golem effect, where our low expectations lead to our decreased performance.

Both effects are self-fulfilling prophecies: what we conceive and perceive, manifests. And, regardless of whether the expectation comes from us, or from others, the effect manifests.

Some trends to consider: So here’s a selection favourable and unfavourable trends, which I believe have a significant forward momentum. These trends inform the portfolio of innovation projects we’re creating, with various cohorts of SME Founders, at Fast Track Assets.

I encourage you to create your own relevant list of trends that you see - knowing that our combined actions, and inactions, will change every one, in some way. For better or worse!

Cash no longer King!

Faster moves to the cashless society. In 2007, cash accounted for 69% of all transactions in Australia, and cards 26%. Last year, cash fell to 27% (down a further 10% from 2016), and cards sat at 63%. This transition trend, which the pandemic accelerated, will continue more to doing away with cash

In turn this will see a revival, in part, of barter systems, of regional economies… Plus the end of the $US as the world's reserve currency, and a flight to gold and new national digital currencies

Huge restructuring of national, corporate and personal debt – including by foreclosure, liquidation and bankruptcy

A major Global Economic Reset is highly likely this year, or next

Sovereign currencies devalued, revalued, and replaced. The possible end of the Euro. The rise of different blockchain-based currencies like Bitcoin, Digital Yuan, and maybe an international Digital currency

A big lift in the price of gold and gold stocks – some forecasters, using a methodology we don’t accept, forecast gold will hit $10,000 an ounce!

Cash being made illegal for any transactions over, say, $10,000

Warfare in many forms

Acceleration of trade wars initiated between the US and China, but extending to much of the world, and an escalation of world tension focused against China's economic and political adventurism and autocratic actions

The US in major decline and turmoil, increasingly isolationist, and losing its moral authority. Trump’s efforts to get re-elected become increasingly divisive and combative

Moves away from the ‘extreme’ globalisation, and outsourcing, of last decade, towards more national self-reliance, domestic manufacture, sourcing of food locally, revitalisation of old industries, new industries, different supply and distribution chains, as happens in war-time 

Escalation of currency wars, cyber crime, hacking, and, thus security systems

People on the move

Significant social unrest - evidenced by a breakdown of the social contract, unemployment, burnout, a rise in mental health issues, increases in suicides and domestic violence, road rage, and far more major street demonstrations that professional agitators turn violent

Rise in extreme left and right groups, rise in dictators, authoritarian governments and Big Brother surveillance - as both capitalism and liberal democracies change form

Flight to 'safer' countries, and rural areas. This includes major migration of citizens and foreign nationals from Hong Kong. And increases in the mass migrations, across national boundaries, we saw last decade 

Realisation that retirement is now at least 10 years further away

Down, down, down

Decrease in consumerism, and big drops in bricks and mortar retailing.

Far fewer overseas students coming to Australian schools and universities – with massive flow on effects

Major drops, and readjustments, in traditional assets – property, stocks, shares, the US dollar, superannuation, businesses

Significant decline in coal, oil and gas, and massive rise in alternative energies, including, maybe, in Australia, hydrogen: driverless vehicles in the ascendancy

Further erosions of our privacy and ‘sale’ of our private data

Less demand for full-time work

Up, up, up

Rise of part-time work, joblessness, and flexible hours.

Citizens, businesses and institutions give much more attention to personal, cyber and asset security

Massive up flow of every form of innovating at every organisational and institutional level

Rise and rise of the splinternet – that is all of us accessing content and brands using multiple devices and multiple platforms.

Increased willingness of the global community to make new choices, and new investments, which allow our planet to regenerate

Ongoing increase, globally, in working from home, home-based businesses, and home-based schooling, initiated during the pandemic

Rise of smarter cities and smarter homes - possibly in regional areas – with more security systems build in and far more shared transport

Strong increase in individuals, families and SMEs, generating seven sources of income

Rise in spirituality especially with the Millennial generation

Major flood of collaborative innovating among custom-built cohorts of SMEs

Social changes

More open source sharing of innovations and solutions to major global problems: “the best businesses are those that generously collaborate with others.”

Most businesses change their profit and stakeholder goals, to incorporate ‘care for planet’, and ‘care for communities’

Proliferation of our digital identities, incorporating a composite of talents, education, profession, spirituality, gender, family, networks, geography, ethnicity, cultural diversity, personal passions, interests, etc…

The trend pushed hard by the pandemic towards social isolation, and digital relating, rather than face-to-face relating, continues

Rise, and rise of calculated misinformation. See clickbait

Acceleration of the virtual experience economy.  Social media and e-sports have kick started this trend. Now watch how less competitive virtual experiences – like 'travel', retail, learning, gatherings - take on new levels of meaning.

Big lift in virtual companions and sex robots. As we all get used to digital assistants and chatbots, some will turn to virtual personalities to entertain, educate, befriend and heal us.

Increase in M2P – Mentor to protégé, interactions. As the call for new skills, new attitudes, new knowledge, new experiences, and new wisdom gets louder, we’ll see far more platforms that connect with gurus, teachers, experts and mentors. The massive increase in podcasts, and platforms like Zoom, during the pandemic are examples.

Economics

Rise in self-sustaining life styles, rise of quite new and renewed industries, and distribution systems, in every nation, including Australia

Holidays, and travel much more local and national, than international. Major shakeout of airline and luxury cruising industries

Increase in home-based and office-based 3D manufacturing

Increased local consumption of goods and services, an expansion of e-commerce to include a new wave of digital shoppers, as well as a new era of value-consciousness, and less throwaway consumables

Rise and rise of quite different economic systems – circular, sharing, regional, home-based manufacturing, etc.

Huge lift in shopstreaming, that combines e-commerce with live-streaming, and provides a heady mix of entertainment, community and commerce

Major rise in robots, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Everything leading to significant restructuring of jobs around the world - with many 'old' jobs disappearing, and new jobs emerging rapidly

Massive changes for the good in our global supply chains of food, resources, energy, and biodiversity using new technology and different business models

Rise in new forms of IP, knowledge-based, and wisdom-based assets. ["Intellectual property is the real estate of this decade."]

Emergence of very different business formats like cohort innovation, collaborative innovation, co-operative marketing, shared resourcing, barter trading, joint ventures, dynamic equity splitting, joint asset development and sharing

Rise of totally different valuing systems and ‘currencies’ like the High Intrinsic Value Units [HIVUs] created by the Fast Track Asset network to assess, value and trade value among SME cohorts and communities

Major change in food consumption patterns, including more home preparation and cooking, less waste [currently 30% of the 4 billion tons of food produced, doesn’t get eaten], less meat, more vegetables, meat produced in the laboratory

Huge changes in packaging - maybe even edible packaging

STEEP – social, technological, ecological, economic, political systems

Capitalist systems blending more economic and social values, goals and purposes

At least 225 emerging technologies impact

Rise of the Millennial Generation into significant leading roles

SMEs doing BIG things by collaborating, modifying new technologies and platform and creating ‘blue ocean’ business models

The globe reaching closer to net zero emissions – well ahead of 2050 targets

Automation of many service industries

Industries and services based on selling time and know-how, move to payment for value-added outcomes

Big deal public and private investment in public health systems

Significant changes in who wins, and who loses

Foundations laid for different and far more sustainable and healthier abundance.

You additions and modifications

You, of course, will not totally, or even partially agree with this list. So I’d really love to see your list,

100 million challenge

As you consider and work with the major trends relevant to you, you might want to consider taking the 100 million challenge.

Best of British luck and insight as you develop and work on identifying and then changing the trends that you ‘fall in love with’/

Always happy to dialogue or collaborate.

Neville Christie. [email protected] Mobile: +61 420 978 932

#FavourableTrends #UnfavourableTrends #PygmalionEffect #GlobalEconomicReset #100MillionChallenge