Get Ready For A Huge Datapoint Out Of China This Week
Every day I write a paragraph in our Forward Guidance markets newsletter at Bloomberg. Figured I'd post today's here. You can sign up for the newsletter for free here.
Prediction: This week's Caixin China PMI Manufacturing report is going to be among the most-watched Chinese manufacturing reports of all time. Last week, when the Fed decided not to raise interest rates, it was made clear that the weak and deteriorating situation abroad, particularly in China, factored into the decision to hold fire. So now people know that the data coming out of China is influencing the world's most important central bank. China's PMI has been deteriorating for awhile now. Last month it came in at 47.3 (anything below 50 is considered contraction). This month economists forecast a tiny improvement to 47.5. The number comes out at 9:45pm ET on Tuesday night. And from a data perspective it promises to be the event of the week, as the whole world watches to see if the Chinese economy heralds more patience from the Fed.
Consulting
9 年Why not trust the data from China? A very disciplined country that shows irrelevance to speculation, this is merely an adjustment period. We are not acknowledging the severe repercussions in the EU with the mass exodus creating large strains. The EU is already having problems on how to even start to correct the problem. Additionally the OPEC countries that are not maintaining heavy margins on oil have the cash reserves and internal development needed to weather this current storm. Russia will benefit from these military actions as we see stronger economies historically after such engagments. Where else are you going to look. Australia who has been recession proof has begun to hedge too largely solely on Asia and we now see a slow down. The Philipines and Thailand are seeing new manufacturing but the supply chain still runs through China. So where else would you invest? To add excitement in the Chinese market the push for government ran companies to go public and the easing of immigration laws to attract new talent, merely a bump in the road. 2016 will be an interesting year.
Control and reporting director at Pepsico Int Mexico
9 年I think the Fed decided not to increase interest rates mainly due to the poor employment figures.
Perito Mercantil y Contador Publico
9 年Seria mejor si lo traducen a espa?ol
Guiding my clients forward Financially
9 年Anything that comes out of china is to be taken with grain of salt. They always have cooked their books. I don't know how long they can get away with it