Germany’s Political Landscape May be Changing – and It is Not for the Best

by Dr. Steven E. Sokol, President, American Council on Germany

This article was a guest contribution to the weekly newsletter "In a Krautshell" weekly newsletter (9/30/23) from Erste Lesung (transl. first reading), a full-service public affairs consultancy with offices in Berlin and Brussels.

Earlier this month – in my first (Guest)House View after the summer break – I wrote about the sticking points within the governing coalition and the tensions between the three parties in the Ampel. Since then I spent a week in Germany, and was able to measure the political pulse. Along with questions about the U.S. election (and whether Donald Trump could actually win in 2024), the main topics of concern revolved around immigration, growing populism, and the strength of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in national and regional polls.

Let me share some observations:

The Governing Coalition

I often find myself reminding non-Germans that while coalition governments are common, this government is unique because it consists of three very different political parties (the Social Democrats, the Greens, and the Free Democrats) – and that certainly within the SPD and the Greens there are two camps, the progressive Fundis and the more mainstream Realos. It is almost as if Chancellor Olaf Scholz has to keep five parties in line.

Disagreements between the three coalition partners have become public and are eroding public confidence in the government. According to a poll earlier this month, only 19 percent of respondents said that they are satisfied with the Ampel. Despite these polling numbers, a study published in September showed that almost two thirds of the 453 major and minor commitments by the coalition have been implemented or are in the works.

Taken together, there is a glaring discrepancy between public opinion and the achievements of the coalition.

The Political Landscape is Shifting

While in Berlin, I once again heard people talking about Politikverdrossenheit (or a sense of apathy when it comes to politics) – and when one considers the polling numbers, there is growing resentment and dissatisfaction with the state of German politics. This has led to a splintering of the political landscape. There are now seven parties now represented in the Bundestag – and the main catch-all parties (Christian Democrats and Social Democrats) have been losing traction. Meanwhile, the parties on the fringes – especially on the right – are gaining ground.

Inflation, high energy costs, and concerns about the economy have helped boost support for the anti-establishment parties. But, the war in Ukraine, migration and the uptick in refugees, and the spats within the Ampel have contributed to support for the AfD in polls.

State Elections as a Political Test

Upcoming elections in Bavaria and Hesse next month – and in the three eastern German states of Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia a year from now – will serve as an important bellwether for political trends. (Please don’t read too much into each election on its own, but taken together we are likely to see trends.)

In Bavaria, the Christian Social Union (CSU) is governing with the Freie W?hler (Free Voters). The CSU is polling at 36 percent – down from 45 percent – and is losing votes to the more populist Free Voters, who are up to 30 percent in the polls despite the recent scandals involving Deputy Premier Hubert Aiwanger (Free Voters). This has the potential to upset Minister President Markus S?der’s potential aspirations to be the Kanzlerkandidat for the CDU/CSU.

Meanwhile, in Hesse, the incumbent Minister President Boris Rhein (CDU) is being challenged by Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser (SPD). The CDU is the strongest party in polls and SPD and Greens are competing for second place, followed by the AfD. Migration and refugees as well as domestic security are at the heart of the race.

Normalization of the AfD?

According to Anna-Sophie Heinze, a political scientist at the University of Trier, there has been a gradual shift as the AfD has established itself as a party. "The AfD has become extremely adept at breaking taboos," she says. "We are no longer seeing the same waves of outrage that we used to."

This is a worrisome trend in the run up to election in Bavaria and Hesse this year and in the three eastern German states next year. (In the east, the AfD is the strongest party in polls and we have seen some wins at the local level.) Intelligence services at both the state and federal level have classified the AfD as a party “of interest” – and it is under observation in Thuringia.

Most mainstream parties have stated they will not cooperate with the AfD at a regional or federal level. But, it will be difficult to limit a democratically elected party – even if it is anti-democratic in its beliefs and at its core.

Meanwhile on the Far Left...

Die Linke (the Left Party) was created in 2007 as an alliance between the post-communist party in eastern Germany and leftist Social Democrats. While it has had some gains in recent years, it is fragile – with 4 to 5 percent in polls – and is likely to splinter further.

Sahra Wagenknecht, one of the party leaders, has been making noises about leaving the Left Party and starting a new party – which could appeal to voters at the far left and far right of the political spectrum. She is very critical of the Ampel’s economic policies and advocates pro-Russian and anti-NATO sentiments. One poll suggested that a Wagenknecht party could take first place in Thuringia next year, but another poll found that only two percent of Germans would support her in a national election.

What does this all mean??

The parties on the fringes are proving that they can take advantage of issues like the state of the German economy, the war in Ukraine, the increase in migrants, rising energy prices and the building heating reform bill (Heizungsgesetz), among other issues to mobilize their base.

If you are interested in parsing German politics, watch what happens in the state elections and the EU elections next year – and watch what is going on in the far right and far left of the political spectrum in Germany. The German federal elections in late 2025 are in an political eternity. A lot can change between now and then, but the question I am asking is: Can Germany’s political extremes become more mainstream by then?