Germany’s Cannabis Market Booms, But Will Elections Slow Progress?

Germany’s cannabis industry is at a crossroads. With federal elections set for February 23, the future of the country’s rapidly growing medical and recreational marijuana markets hangs in the balance.

The left-leaning Social Democratic Party (SDU) has overseen significant cannabis reform, including a major expansion of the country’s medical marijuana program and the introduction of limited recreational cannabis access. These changes have attracted foreign investment and fueled industry growth, making Germany one of the most dynamic cannabis markets in the world.

But with the right-leaning Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leading in the polls, some in the industry are wondering whether progress will continue—or stall.

Medical Cannabis Demand Surges, Prices Drop

Germany’s medical cannabis market is experiencing unprecedented demand. According to a recent report by Frankfurt-based Bloomwell GmbH, the number of cannabis prescriptions issued in 2024 was 1,000% higher than in March of the same year.

Despite this increase, prices have fallen to record lows. Some medical cannabis strains sold for as little as 3.99 euros ($4.12) per gram in late 2024. The average price per gram in November dropped to 8.35 euros, down from 9.27 euros at the start of the year.

Niklas Kouparanis, co-founder and CEO of Bloomwell Group, noted that this trend was unexpected.

“Demand is increasing in Germany, so we thought prices would go up,” he said. “It’s the opposite of what we thought, which means the industry was pretty well prepared.”

However, with cultivation capacity increasing, Kouparanis predicts Germany could face an oversupply of cannabis in 2025.

Germany’s Growing Role in Global Cannabis Trade

Germany is on track to become one of the world’s largest medical cannabis markets, with an annual supply run rate projected to surpass 100 tonnes (roughly 110 U.S. tons).

Foreign companies, particularly from Canada and the U.S., have already staked their claims.

New York-based Curaleaf Holdings acquired a 55% stake in Germany’s Four 20 Pharma in 2022, securing a foothold in the European market. Last year, Curaleaf also acquired Northern Green Canada, strengthening its supply chain for European expansion.

“Our mission is to expand patient access through cutting-edge research, innovation, and evidence-based treatments,” said Juan Martinez, head of Curaleaf International. “It is essential to keep patient care at the center of decision-making and avoid returning to restrictive measures that have proven ineffective in the past.”

Canadian companies also continue to dominate imports. Deepak Anand, principal of ASDA Consultancy Services in British Columbia, emphasized that imports are driving growth in Germany.

“The real growth is around imports,” he said. “We’re seeing Canadian companies continue to dominate, and we’re seeing additional companies coming.”

The Future of Recreational Cannabis in Germany

Germany has taken a cautious approach to adult-use cannabis legalization. In 2024, the government removed cannabis from its narcotics list, making it easier for patients to access medical marijuana.

Additionally, the newly enacted Cannabis Act allows for the creation of non-commercial cannabis social clubs. These clubs, which became operational in July 2024, permit members to cultivate and share cannabis within a closed network. Each club can have up to 500 members, and individuals can obtain up to 50 grams per month. However, sales are not allowed, and on-site consumption remains prohibited.

The next step in Germany’s cannabis evolution is the launch of an adult-use pilot program, which could pave the way for a commercial retail market. Under this program, companies and scientific institutions would apply for licenses to sell adult-use cannabis in regulated environments.

Jamie Pearson, president of global cannabis consulting firm New Holland Group, believes that a full-fledged retail market is inevitable.

“The recreational program is going to be really geared toward outsiders because people can get cheaper, better cannabis in the pharmacies,” Pearson said.

Will the Elections Impact Cannabis Policy?

Despite concerns that the CDU’s expected victory could slow cannabis reforms, industry leaders remain optimistic.

“The upcoming election is not expected to disrupt the current momentum,” said Anand. “The strong growth trajectory is likely to continue.”

Martinez echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the need to keep patient care at the forefront of policy decisions.

“These reforms have helped integrate cannabis into mainstream health care, reducing stigma and allowing patients to seek treatment without unnecessary barriers,” he said.

Germany’s cannabis industry has come a long way, but the next few months will be crucial in determining whether momentum continues—or faces political headwinds.