Is Germany about to get a new Mutter or Vater?

Angela Merkel's presence on the international scene has been a consistent feature of the last 16 years of political life, unmatched in developed democracies and probably only matched globally by Putin. Her steadfast resolve and willingness to seek compromise and consensus has been a defining factor of EU and Global politics as a result. She is seen as a safe pair of hands generally, albeit recent development in the Covid-19 pandemic in Germany as well as the migrant crisis have somewhat diluted that perception.

Either way when she steps down as Chancellor later this year, there will be a big hole left in European politics at a time when the EU overall is appearing fractured due to the issues which the Commission itself is dealing with; not forgetting of course that Ursula von der Leyen was a former Defence Minister under Merkel.

German politics, by design after the Second World War, is geared towards forming consensus views and governing by coalitions - part of the German desire for transparency and openness. I've been lucky enough to visit the Bundestag in Berlin, you can walk right up to the top of the glass dome overlooking the parliament floor - a physical representation of this openness of the democracy.

This means that who ever succeeds Merkel as Chancellor will have to likely form a coalition Government in order to govern. Merkel's part is a CDU (Christian Democratic Union) a centre-right party which, for the purposes of Bundestag elections, runs on a joint-ticket (effectively) with the CSU (Christian Social Union) which is it's sister party from the Bavarian state. The CDU is the much larger party of the two, but in theory their candidate for Chancellor can come from either party.

Armin Laschet (the CDU candidate) was chosen over the weekend, despite the fact that that the CSU rival, Markus S?der, has polled much more favourably in Germany overall. S?der polled at 38% amongst Germans, compared to Laschet's 17%; suggesting the potential for them to slump to second or even third or second place in September's vote.

Read more here on "five things to know" about Armin Laschet.

The above chart shows a recent poll of the main parties and compares the result to the 2017 General Election. Here you can see the headache for the CDU/CSU party, and also the reduction of the vote share for the SPD (the left-of-centre party). The beneficiary of this disruption is the Green party, and their leader Annalena Baerbock.

So what would Annalena Baerbock's election mean for German and European politics? Guido Fawkes has a summary of some of her domestic policies, which he notes as: increase in wealth taxes, increase in welfare payments, doubling of carbon taxes, banning of short-haul flights, increase in income tax, rent caps, a right to a 30 hour week and a right to work from home. You can also read an article from Politico (see below) on the 5 things to know about the Green leader, which also touches on the foreign policy elements.

Read more here on "five things to know" about Annalena Baerbock.

Baerbock is a supporter of NATO, but sceptical on the 2% of GDP spending target. A harsher critic of Putin and Russia than Merkel has been, indeed the ongoing Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline deal between Germany and Russia has been a dividing line within European politics for some time. “If Germany’s voice in foreign policy fails — be it with regard to the tensions in Ukraine or the attitude towards Russia, or with regard to the Nord Stream 2 project — then Europe will be destroyed,” she said recently. This could cause her issues if attempting to seek a left-wing coalition (the Social Democrats and leftist Die Linke, have taken a softer stance on Russia); but, the US, UK and France are likely to be positive if there was a more negative stance towards Putin - particularly Biden who is keen to have a very different attitude to Russia compared to Trump.

Clearly we should expect climate change to feature highly on the agenda, albeit Germany has historically been ahead of other Western economies in their thoughts & actions in this area. With the UK and US this week setting bold commitments for carbon reduction, and the upcoming COP26, this might be a good moment for a Green Chancellor to help build international consensus and push the member of the EU towards bolder collective targets - this week a reduction of 55% was agreed vs. 60% preferred by the EU parliament.

The broader EU position will also be interesting to watch, no matter who is Chancellor. Due to her long tenure, Merkel is often seen as one of the key influencers and decision makers within the block - can Macron take advantage to move himself and France into that frame? If so, this could be interesting given Macron's tendency to react more "in-the-moment" compared to Merkel (thinking of the vaccine debate, for example). Clearly though, Macron has his own upcoming election worries in 2022, and that could well further fragment the EU depending upon the outcome.

The EU block is already adjusting to the absence of the UK, and trying to judge how the balance of power will land - alongside power struggles within the Council / Commission / Parliament. A big change in the Leadership of Germany in late 2021, and potential change for France in early 2022 could have big repercussions for the workings of the Council and the relationships amongst member states.

What might this mean for the UK? Well it's hard to say! Clearly we are still adjusting to a post-Brexit world, and the Covid-19 pandemic is impacting general ways of working and bilateral meetings which we'd hope would go a long way to building broader and more far-reaching relationships internationally. One to watch is what Merkel does in her final days in office, does she tie the hands of her successor in anyway? A big long-form interview in her final days could be interesting to set the tone and agenda for the election, and for European politics for sometime...