Georginio Rutter: Why Leeds United have signed a ￡36m striker who has scored only 11 league goals in 57 games

Leeds United sit in 14th place in the Premier League after 18 games. With 26 goals scored, Jesse Marsch's men improved their goalscoring recording by eight compared to this time last season. With only four fewer goals than Manchester United, it may seem odd why The Whites have spent ￡36m on a young striker called Georginio Rutter.

In this article, we will use TransferLab's in-depth data analysis platform to conclude why Leeds have bought Rutter.

Jesse Marsch - a new philosopher with old thinking

Marsch is known for his gegenpress. The gegenpress is a form of defending that emphasises winning the ball as fast as possible when the ball is towards the opponent's goal. One of the benefits of the gegenpress is that when Leeds win the ball back, the opposition's defence need more time to set up.

However, this chaos is caused by squeezing the opponent with Leeds' defence sitting high up the pitch. This highline has caused The Whites to be split open on multiple occasions, especially against teams that employ long ball tactics, such as Brentford (scored 5 in their 5-2 win), Bournemouth (scored 3 in their 4-3 defeat) and Antonio Conte's Tottenham Hotspur (scored 4 in their 4-3 win).

The American coach is known for demanding much running from his fullbacks. Marsch requires that the fullbacks provide width in the attack, whilst the midfield forms a triangle whilst in possession. Marc Roca will sit deeper than Tyler Adams or Brenden Aaronson to collect the ball from the defence and spray the ball.

The half-space is a vital area for Marsch to control. This is because the half-space allows for "diagonability," as René Mari? calls it. Allowing for the advanced playmaker (for Leeds, it would be Aaronson) and wingers to come closer to the striker whilst not sacrificing the angle of the cross, allowing for the pass into the box to be of better value.

Marsch liked to play with two strikers at Salzburg so that the press could be as intense and quick as possible. Daka and Koita would press the opposing defenders quickly due to their starting position (this concept of being in the position to press/defend whilst in possession of the ball is called 'rest defence').

All of these principles are relatively new in football. The Gegenpress was conceptualised in Germany by Manchester United's former manager Ralf Rangnick, who best implemented his tactic with RB Leipzig from 2015-2019. Fullbacks bombing forward is now fundamental in football today, with the best managers in the world like Pep Guardiola, Jürgen Klopp and Erik ten Hag implementing the principle into their tactical setup.

But, what interests us most, in this case, is the striker's role.

The American coach wants his striker to sit on the last line of the defence in a much more traditional role. Some of the strikers that Marsch had managed at RB Salzburg (his previous club before Leeds United) include the likes of Patson Daka, Karim Adeyemi and Erling Haaland. These strikers are known for their electric pace, positional awareness and ability to receive through balls.

Now you can see why the half-space is important to Marsch, as through balls are most effective in this area. This is because teams defend the centre of the pitch with great aggression. After all, if their opponent can easily access the middle of the box, they can shoot with a much better chance. Wide areas are easier to play through balls and progress the ball up the pitch, but because of the distance between the touchline and the opponent's goal, it means the likelihood of the cross finding the target is less than if the cross came from the half-space.

This is why Rodrigo is seeing much more success in front of the goal due to his acceleration, agility and game intelligence. The Spanish striker has already scored ten league goals in 17 Premier League matches (the most league goals since the 2017/18 season when he scored 16 for Valencia and the third most league goals in his career).

His goals against Tottenham Hotspur during Leeds' 4-3 defeat were exactly what Marsch wants from his forwards.

For the first goal, he is first to the ball after a flick-on from Rasmus Kristensen. Rodrigo is on the last line of the defence, which is a much more traditional role for the striker, unlike how Pep Guardiola set up his Manchester City side before signing Erling Haaland.

The second goal came from an interception thanks to Liam Cooper, who passed the ball to Roca. From the centre of the pitch, the Spanish deep-lying playmaker played a through ball to Rodrigo, sitting in the left half-space.

So, how do we measure Rutter as a Marsch striker?

Every good striker needs to score goals, and the same can be said for a Marsch side, especially during his time at RB Salzburg.

During Marsch's two full seasons (2019/20 and 2020/21) in Austria, Patson Daka scored 24 and 27 league goals, respectively.

In the American's first season at Salzburg, the top three goalscorers in the Austrian Football Bundesliga, for Die Rotten Bullen, made up 39% of their total goals, and in the second season, it made up over 60%.

It could be argued that the sale of Hwang Hee-Chan in 2020 concentrated where the goals came from. However, the point could be made that it was because Marsch implemented his style over the second season at Salzburg, which is proven by the gap between the leading side Salzburg and second place increasing from 12 points to 15.

We can extrapolate from this that Marsch is not bothered about sharing the goals around his team, like Guardiola and wants his strikers to score the majority of goals. Using this information, we need to evaluate Rutter's goals per 90 (non-penalty), xG per 90, shot conversion rate and finishing quality.

As we mentioned earlier, Marsch wants his striker to be able to latch onto through balls, especially in the half-spaces. So, we need to ensure that Rutter is good at receiving through balls, forward passes, half-space passes received, and the quality of Rutter's reception to half-space passes.

And, because of Marsch's gegenpress, we need to make sure Rutter is an effective counter-presser and able to regain the ball high up the pitch.

Finally, we will also use dribbling as it would be a disservice to one of the best dribbles in the Bundesliga if we don't compare his dribbling data to other Leeds United forwards. Because Marsch doesn't require his strikers to dribble past players, we will put more emphasis on dribbling quality rather than the total amount of dribbles completed or attempted.

Georginio Rutter - a young striker on the down?

Georginio Rutter has come from Bundesliga side Hoffenheim to join Leeds United for ￡36m, a club record fee. Despite this, the French striker scored only 11 Bundesliga goals in 57 appearances for Die Kraichgauer.

As we can see, he doesn't seem exceptional compared to all other strikers in the top five leagues. His shot conversation rate is in the 15th percentile, showing us that his finishing isn't the greatest and the shots he is taking aren't of the highest value.

Rutter's non-penalty goals per 90 sit at 0.18 or a goal every 450 minutes. To add some context, Brighton and Hove Albion's Pascal Gro? has scored six Premier League goals this season, which is a goal every 259 minutes.

We also see a downward trend in Rutter's shooting data from last season.

Rutter's goals per 90 have dropped by 144% and xG per 90 by 36%. His finishing quality has dropped from when he was in the 76th percentile to the 34th percentile.

The young forward's pressing and overall defensive data have significantly dropped off since last season.

All of these are bad signs for Leeds' as they need to keep scoring goals to prevent relegation from the Premier League.

"So why have Leeds bought Rutter if his finishing is so bad?" - Probably what you are thinking

Even though Rutter's performances seemed to have dropped, it isn't all his fault.

Hoffenheim have scored 22 Bundesliga goals in their first 15 games. Compared to last season, it is a massive dropoff from the 32 they had before.

This may be due to the fall in form for Rutter, but it could also be due to the departure of David Raum, who was influential in Hoffenheim's attack. The German wing-back provided 13 assists in the Bundesliga last season. Whereas his successor, Angeli?o, has provided just three assists over the first 15 Bundesliga matches, Raum provided six assists in his first 15 league games last season.

This can help explain why Rutter's goalscoring form may be drying up, although the Frenchman will have to take some blame for his own time in front of the goal. Rutter's finishing quality has decreased from the 76th percentile to the 34th percentile.

Rutter was also playing in a Hoffenheim side that presses less often than they did last season. At the end of the 2021/22 season, Hoffenheim ranked fourth for tackles in the final third in the Bundesliga, above teams like Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig, who are often attributed with a high-pressing system. This shows that a lot of Hoffenheim's defensive actions occurred near their opponent's goal, which means pressing from forwards would have been vital for their defensive structure.

However, this year Hoffenheim are ranked third-bottom in the Bundesliga. Hoffenheim have also increased their percentage of tackles in their defensive third by 7% this season. Raum's departure can also be felt in this area as the German international ran the fourth-most out of anyone in the Bundesliga last season for Hoffenheim. This season, Grisha Pr?mel ranks the highest for Hoffenheim in 28th place in the Bundesliga.

This tactical change can help paint the picture as to why Rutter seems to be pressing less. We can also see that Rutter was great at counterpressing last season, ranking in the top 10% of strikers for counterpressing recoveries per 90 and high regains per 90. Hence, it is more than just a lack of effort from Rutter, as we may have first thought when looking at the data without context.

Finally, Rutter is actually improving in terms of his receiving of the ball. With a significant increase in quality for his first touch of half-space passes, Rutter is ticking off one of Marsch's main criteria for his forwards.

It would be unfair to say Rutter has got worse this season because of his data without taking into account the cultural and personnel changes at Hoffenheim this season compared to the previous.

Rutter v Gelhardt - who is the best young striker?

Rutter's transfer to Leeds may also confuse some avid watchers of Premier League football, because of the presence of Joe Gelhardt.

Gelhardt is 20 years old, has scored goals in the Premier League, including a vital one against Norwich City last season and has suitable traits for a Marsch forward. We also know that Marsch can develop forwards, such as Patson Daka and Hwang Hee-Chan.

So, let's look at the similarities and differences between these two young promising strikers.

If we compare Rutter this season to Gelhardt from last season, we can see a similar style of player.

To clarify, we are comparing different seasons because Gelhardt has less than 300 Premier League minutes this season, so it would be unfair to compare using the same season.

Both players struggle to convert chances, with Gelhardt just edging out with a 9% shot conversation rate compared to Rutter's 8%. Both of these would need improving in the future as strikers at similar Premier League clubs like Nottingham Forest's Taiwo Awoniyi (22%), Aston Villa's Danny Ings (20%), and Leicester City's Patson Daka (20%) have a much better shot conversation rate. Gelhardt has only scored 43% of his xG, whereas Rutter has scored 72% of his expected goals.

The pair also receive a similar amount of half-space passes per 90 minutes, with the Englishman (11.88) slightly edging out his new teammate (10.52). Quality isn't an issue for either player, as they are in the top 20% for this metric.

Dribbling quality is similar with both players, but Rutter completes the most dribbles out of any striker with his 3.1 per 90 minutes. I doubt he would be able to replicate his dribbling form in the Premier League due to the league's physicality and more organised defensive nature compared to the Bundesliga. Still, it is impressive to see an accomplished dribbler at such a young age.

Rutter is better at receiving forward balls, a prominent part of Marsch's philosophy for strikers.

When we compare Rutter's season from 2021/22 to Gelhardt's in the same season, it is easy to see why the Frenchman comes out on top.

Sure, Gelhardt still outperformed Rutter for xG per 90 (0.42 v 0.34), but the former-Rennes man was significantly better in finishing quality, non-penalty goals per 90 and shot conversation rate. Rutter was also Hoffenheim's top goalscorer in the Bundesliga during the 2021/22 season with eight goals. This is an outcome of such efficient finishing from a player who outperformed his xG that campaign.

From a defensive point of view, Rutter secured 1.11 high regains per 90, which is almost twice as good as Gelhardt's 0.59. Despite the increased high regains, Rutter still provided a similar level of quality after retrieving the ball as he fell in the 88th percentile.

To conclude on this comparison, Gelhardt is a fine player who has been playing in a harder league to break down defences, and Rutter has had a poor season compared to last. However, the French forward has shown his ceiling is higher than Gelhardt's with his performances last season at the age of 19 in a top-five league.

But, Gelhardt fans, including myself, don't worry. There may be a place for the scouse striker yet.

Rutter 2021/22 v Rodrigo 2022/23 - closer than you think

Rodrigo has been outstanding for Leeds United this season. The Spanish forward has scored ten Premier League goals after 17 matches, and none of his goals came from the penalty spot. In comparison, Rutter has only scored 11 Bundesliga goals since his move to Germany in 57 games, so how are these two players close in quality?

The first thing that pops out to me is how much better at the defensive side Rutter is compared to Rodrigo. It must be said that Leeds' defensive game is poor in general considering that most teams have a simple blueprint on how to get past the Marsch press (surprisingly it is just a simple long ball to an onrushing striker). So, Rodrigo's defensive stats will be impacted by Leeds' fragility when off the ball. However, Rutter is at least able to defend from the front as Marsch wants.

Of course, Rodrigo has been on such great goalscoring form that he is scoring every 119 minutes in the league. To put that into perspective, Harry Kane is scoring a goal every 113 minutes, and the Tottenham player is regarded as one of the best strikers in the Premier League. Rutter last season scored every 204 Bundesliga minutes, which is not bad considering it was his first full season in the league.

In terms of dribbling, Rutter completely outclasses Rodrigo in terms of both quality and quantity.

Rutter completed 1.99 dribbles per 90 minutes, whereas Rodrigo only produced 0.23 dribbles.

In terms of receiving the ball and producing something from that, Rutter and Rodrigo are pretty similar in their abilities.

What must not be forgotten is that Rodrigo is 11 years older than Rutter. That means Rutter will be playing in the 2033/34 season by the time he is as old as Rodrigo is now.

A change in formation on the cards?

Marsch has brought in a striker despite having the consistently injured Patrick Bamford as well as Rodrigo, Gelhardt, Willy Gnoto (another upcoming star that can slot anywhere across the front line) and Sam Greenwood.

For this reason, I think Marsch, in the long-term, is planning on switching his formation to a 4-2-4 system as he had at Salzburg. With two strikers, Marsch could alter the rest defence to be more intense when the opposition centre-backs retrieve the ball. This potential alteration may also be why Leeds United are looking at signing the Moroccan CDM Azzedine Ounahi from Angers.

This is all speculation, and we simply don't know how Marsch is going to incorporate his attacking talent into this side until either the tail-end of this season or the start of the next campaign. However, what we do know is that Georginio Rutter is a 20-year-old striker worthy of his price for his sky-high potential.

Credit

Big thank you to TransferLab for making this article possible. TransferLab is an online in-depth data analysis recruitment platform specifically for football, with versions for both the men's and women's games. It allows for clubs to see how well over 100,000 players have been performing in a vast quantity of metrics and having a user-friendly website with easy-to-use tools to allow for comparisons, scattergraphs, or even finding similar players. If you want to check out their website to see more information, just?click this link.