Geopolitics @ Dawn | March 13

Today in geopolitical news and how comms pros should think and talk about it....

1. Trump's trade wars damage economic relations: President Trump's aggressive tariff policies have triggered a substantial international backlash, particularly disrupting US-Canada relations. Implementing steel and aluminum tariffs has prompted retaliatory measures from Canada and the European Union, creating broader trade tensions across multiple industries. Even traditionally allied sectors like whiskey production find common causes against these policies. The Wall Street Journal characterizes this as "the dumbest trade war in history," highlighting how the approach has united international opposition while concerning domestic business executives and economic advisers. This deterioration in trade relationships threatens global supply chains and market stability at a particularly vulnerable economic moment.

2. Trump's foreign policy realigns alliances: The administration's unconventional diplomatic maneuvers reshape longstanding geopolitical alignments. Trump appears to be executing what critics call a "reverse Nixon" strategy that aims to separate Russia from China, with Ukraine potentially serving as a strategic sacrifice. This approach involves direct pressure on Putin regarding the Ukraine conflict while simultaneously rethinking traditional Western security arrangements. European nations are responding by considering previously unthinkable options, including Poland's interest in nuclear cooperation with France and the UK questioning its nuclear deterrent dependence on the United States. These shifts indicate a potential fundamental restructuring of post-World War II security architecture that has maintained relative stability for decades.

3. Canada faces unprecedented sovereignty challenges: Relations between the United States and Canada have deteriorated to extraordinary levels, with Trump making annexation threats that Canadian officials describe as "economic coercion." Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly explicitly characterized US actions as an "unjustified and unjustifiable trade war" with annexation undertones. Intelligence experts suggest the US may be attempting to destabilize Canada, particularly targeting "young, economically vulnerable people." This represents a remarkable breakdown in North American cooperation and raises fundamental questions about regional power dynamics. The situation is further complicated by Mark Carney's imminent appointment as Canadian prime minister, placing a new leader at the center of this escalating dispute.

4. China expands strategic global positioning: Beijing continues its methodical expansion of global influence through infrastructure, technology, and maritime initiatives. China's exploration of distant seabeds demonstrates its commitment to gaining advantages in naval warfare capabilities. Simultaneously, African railway projects showcase a "leaner approach to overseas development" as Western aid appears to retreat. These moves represent a comprehensive strategy to establish China as an alternative superpower with distinct spheres of influence. In response, the United States is creating a national security council specifically designed to counter Chinese technological threats, recognizing the importance of this strategic competition.

5. European unity strengthens under pressure: Contrary to expectations, Trump's policies appear to be galvanizing European cohesion rather than fragmenting the continent. The New York Times observes that the administration's "shock and awe" approach is "unifying Europe" and boosting support for moderate leaders. This trend manifests in multiple ways: coordinated retaliatory tariffs, discussions about shared defense capabilities, and Germany's Christian Democratic Union leader Friedrich Merz undertaking "major projects in his country and abroad" even before formal coalition negotiations conclude. The resilience of European institutions in the face of external pressure represents a significant development that may influence economic and security strategies across multiple sectors.

Pro tip: Make sure you have a professional with expertise in geopolitical communications on your team. Such a pro will help you navigate geopolitical challenges related to your business objectives and confidently speak about this environment.

Caracal is here to help.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc