Geopolitics and Climate Change

The leading political coalitions in Mexico, “Morena” and? “el Frente”, have gone forward with women to run for president in the elections next year. For the first time ever, it is likely that Mexico will be led by a female president, entering a new era of modernity, tolerance, and diversity in a world eager to break paradigms. Moreover, both ladies have expressed to be in favor of addressing the climate crisis and propelling a more sustainable development model.

We are facing critical times where governments will define the opportunities and the quality of life for new generations.? Last week, the World Meteorological Organization confirmed that the months from June to August, 2023 were the hottest summer in record . On Friday, the United Nations released the Global Stocktake report from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change concluding that we are “off track” to meet the 1.5°C temperature stabilization goal . ?

With only 1.1 °C of temperature increase since the industrial revolution, catastrophic events from devastating wildfires in Grece, Canada and Hawaii to unprecedented floods in Beijing and Libya, have become the new normal. Last June, heatwaves drove temperatures above 40°C in 24 states in Mexico and the excessive demand of power for air conditioning? overloaded the national electric system.

However, the geopolitical tensions that began with the Rusia-Ukraine conflict and worsened due to the United States-China differences over Taiwan, rose the global demand for fossil fuels and set an unfriendly context to advance energy transition. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in order to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, CO2 emissions have to be lowered by 43% in 2030 and brought down to net zero in 2050.???

The UN Global Sotocktake report released last Friday recommends phasing out unabated fossil fuels and tripling the supply of renewable energy by 2030. However, reaching such commitment is still unlikely given the current geopolitical context. An attempt to reach an agreement on phasing out fossil fuels failed during the G20 summit that took place over the weekend in New Delhi , despite a very progressive declaration on environmental sustainability.

The current geopolitical context has favored Mexico, mainly through an unprecedented trend of nearshoring from Chinese and Asian companies . Moreover, American and European companies such as Tesla and BMW have announced large investments to manufacture electric vehicles in Mexico. But, to maximize these opportunities in the era of a greener economy, Mexico must be capable of supplying cheap and clean energy.?

Morena′s prospective candidate Claudia Sheinbaum knows the IPCC′s work firsthand. She was part of the group of scientist who integrated the IPCC′s fourth and fifth reports in 2007 and 2013. In fact, the 2007 report, in which vice president Al Gore also participated, was awarded the Nobel Pace Price that same year. The Frente′s future candidate, Xóchitl Gálvez highlights the need to harness México′s renewable energy potential to boost cheaper and cleaner energy.

Mexico is one of the two G20 countries which has not formalized a net zero goal. It is likely that the next administration will be keen on championing the many opportunities in the transition towards a more sustainable development model.

Article originally published in Reforma News: https://www.reforma.com/geopolitica-y-sostenibilidad-2023-09-15/op256590?pc=102

Contact the author: [email protected] @EnriqueLendo