Still too early to talk about geopolitics of payments infrastructures?
The Ukrainian crisis brings us East-West block politics. It is time we talk about the geopolitics of payment systems: listing some facts about China's and Russia's payment systems.
China
In 2012 China decided to establish its own international payment system with the declared purpose of purpose of encouraging international use of the yuan. In 2015 the Cross-border Interbank Payments System (CIPS) began its operations. Although SWIFT and CIPS have been cooperating for years on integration of the two systems, it's clear that CIPS has been launched as an alternative to SWIFT as it features reduced costs and processing times. Though China is almost as wide as the continental United States, the whole country runs on Beijing time, easying the operation of its payment infrastructure.
China's RTGS has proven especially popular with banks from countries exposed to US sanctions, such as Russia and Turkey, as well as African states which are benefiting from infrastructure projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative.?
Russia
In 2014 Bank of Russia launched its Financial Messaging System SPFS providing banks and other legal entities with a secure and protected environment for financial messages exchange.? The SPFS also provides the message exchange service to the Russian Federal Treasury. Launched as a national alternative to SWIFT, in 2020 SPFS still handled a little more than 20% of the domestic SWIFT traffic. Compared to CIPS, SPFS has a smaller international coverage, probably as a consequence of the US sanctions. While interoperability with CIPS has been announced, operational status has not yet been reached.?
SPFS is the widest RTGS in the world, spanning 11 time zones. As a comparison, there are only four time zones in the Continental part of the United States, and the full country spans six of them.
The Renminbi and its onshore and offshore circulations
Renminbi is the official name of China’s national currency and it actually means “people’s currency” in Mandarin. However, Chinese people call their currency the Yuan ¥, which is actually the unit of measure of the Renminbi. The circulation of the Renminbi is segmented into two different regions, and the currency takes two different names:
For a Chinese subject abiding currency controls, 1 CNH = 1 CNY. However, CNH and CNY are worth different amounts when compared to a foreign currency, and they both have their own sell, buy, and mid-market rate. To make things worse, the distinction between CNY and CNH is only used by Banks that are actively arbitraging between those two. All other banks have adopted the symbol CNY to denote the Renminbi circulating in the offshore market.?
Rouble circulation in Russia
Generally, foreign currency operations between residents are prohibited. While lending activities and contracts may refer to foreign currencies, the actual payments must be executed in roubles. Payments in any currency are permitted without restriction between non-residents, provided that payments in Russian roubles within Russia are executed between accounts opened with Russian authorised banks. Payments in cash are allowed under the threshold of 1,000,000 Rubles. Settlement for rouble transactions is also permitted, subject to compliance to Russian securities market regulations.?
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The ISO 20022 Standard
Traditional payment order formats like ISO 15022 (the Swift’s MT FIN messages) support a very limited character set (uppercase and lowercase latin alphabet + digits + a few special characters). As ISO 20022 supports Unicode, both Russia and China were among the first to adopt the new standard, opening the way to Cyrillic alphabet and Mandarin ideograms. Also, regulators like the ISO 20022 because it enables better transaction screening and tracing, as it includes more information about transaction parties.
The Chinese internal payment system
The China National Advanced Payment System (CNAPS) handles internal payments and is composed by many subsystems.??????
The Russian internal payment system?
Diffusion of CIPS (2020 data published by BOFIT- Bank of Finland Institute for emerging economies)
Over 800 banks from about 90 countries participate in CIPS, either as direct or indirect participants. Most CIPS traffic happens between Hong Kong and mainland China.
Banks in ASEAN countries account for 8 % of CIPS payment transfers (15 % of value). Usage of CIPS in Africa, Latin America and Europe accounts for only about 0.5 % of payment transactions and less than the 0.1 % of their value. In North America, only 26 banks have a CIPS connection and many of them are foreign subsidiaries of Chinese banks. CIPS handled 2.2 million payment transactions last year with a total value of 45.2 trillion yuan.
Diffusion of SPFS (2020 data published by Bank of Russia)
About 400 credit institutions and other users are connected to the SPFS, with more than 70 thousand messages transmitted on a daily basis. During the same year, 21 foreign organisations have concluded agreements on the provision of SPFS services, 12 of which are already connected to the system.
Nobody should be happy about a correct forecast about war and destruction, and I am not. However, yesterday Reuters confirmed all the data contained in this article which went out on Feb 15th: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-could-work-around-swift-ban-with-high-costs-2022-03-07/ A big thank you to everyone who read and reacted!
New article with two econometric studies of the effect of sanctions here: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/barresilaw_sanctions-globaleeconomy-activity-6906618411028512768-lwmA
Helping you make sense of going Cashless | Best-selling author of "Cashless" and "Innovation Lab Excellence" | Consultant | Speaker | Top media source on China's CBDC, the digital yuan | China AI and tech
2 年Great read Rosa. CIPs would seem to be more important than ever to the Russian-China relationship. Someday to be supplanted by digital rouble-yuan but we'll have to wait a while for that.
Great piece, Rosa! Thanks for sharing your analysis on this topic. I don’t think it’s too early to start talking about geopolitics & payment systems. While the #Ukrainian crisis brought back a Cold War-esque environment (or maybe more like the Cuban Missle Crisis 2.0), I believe that most of the battles between “super powers” going forward will take place on the #web3 and all other forms of technology (payment systems being an important element of that battle).