Beyond the Houthis' attacks on shipping: the Abraham Accords

Will the?India – Middle East – Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) , announced with great fanfare at the G20 foreign ministers' meeting in March 2023, come to fruition and partially offset the closure of the Suez Canal, or not? IMEC is supposed to become a logistics corridor between India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and Europe. Joe Biden called it a "big deal" and a "game-changing investment", while Ursula von der Leyen called it "nothing less than historic".

This is the subject of my next article because one cannot talk about IMEC, which implies the normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, without first explaining the?Abraham Accords ?signed during Donald Trump's administration.

One cannot talk about IMEC, which implies the normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, without first explaining the Abraham Accords signed during Donald Trump's administration.

The Abraham Accords are a declaration and four separate agreements. While only four countries signed the declaration, the Accords include six countries: the US, Israel, the UAE, Morocco, Bahrain and Sudan. The heart of the one-page declaration is: "... we warmly welcome and are encouraged by the progress already made in establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and its neighbours..."

In a nutshell, the US managed to get four Arab countries (not yet Saudi Arabia) to establish or re-establish diplomatic relations with Israel. In other words, Israel got a lot thanks to the "sponsorship" of its "Uncle Sam", the US, which in turn had to make concessions to each of the Arab countries.?As an article in Foreign Affairs put it: "It is important to remember that every Arab agreement with Israel has been, at its core, an Arab agreement with the United States."

In a nutshell, the US managed to get four Arab countries (not yet Saudi Arabia) to establish or re-establish diplomatic relations with Israel. In other words, Israel got a lot thanks to the "sponsorship" of its "Uncle Sam", the US, which in turn had to make concessions to each of the Arab countries.

The main concessions to each of them were as follows. To the United Arab Emirates, the sale of advanced F35 fighter jets. To Morocco, the US conceded nothing less than recognition of Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara, which is not recognised by either the United Nations or the European Union. For Sudan, the US conceded economic aid and, most importantly, removal from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. For Bahrain, a confirmation that it is under US protection because of the presence of a large military base.?

The F35 and the terrorist list were too undiplomatic to be mentioned in the texts, but of course they were key to the UAE and Sudan signing the agreement. In the case of Morocco, the agreement was explicit:

• "The United States recognizes Moroccan sovereignty over the entire Western Sahara territory and reaffirms its support for Morocco's serious, credible, and realistic autonomy proposal as the only basis for a just and lasting solution to the dispute over the Western Sahara territory".

The bilateral relationship that has developed most rapidly is between the UAE and Israel. As early as 2021, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs published:?

• "The United Arab Emirates has announced the establishment of a $10 billion fund aimed at strategic sectors in Israel."

The bilateral relationship that has developed most rapidly is between the UAE and Israel.

In September 2023, the UAE Embassy in the US published a nine-page document entitled?"The UAE and Israel: Three Years of Progress," ?with dozens of cases, including them, for us in the maritime industry, several MoUs between DP World and Israeli companies, and one between Abu Dhabi Ports and the Manufacturers Association of Israel.

In November 2023, The Economist published the article: Can Israeli-Emirati business ties survive the Gaza war? Here are three extracts:

• "Israeli tourists flooded into Dubai on the first ever direct flights. In the first eight months of 2023 Dubai welcomed almost 230,000 travellers from Israel, 73% more than in the same period last year."
• "The UAE-Israel Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement came into force in April. Official trade between the two countries is expected to surpass $3bn this year, from nothing in 2019."
• "The commercial logic of continued rapprochement, then, remains sound. Many businesspeople in Israel and the uae know it—and are hoping that the current pause is just that, rather than a collapse."

IMEC implied that the logistics corridor with modern rail infrastructure, mainly through Saudi Arabia, would begin with diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Most foreign policy experts, by the way, believe that such normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia was the reason for the Hamas attack on Israel, as something promoted by the Saudis' arch-rival—Iran.?Just three weeks before the Hamas' attack, for instance, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Fox News that "every day we get closer" in the negotiations.?

IMEC implied that the logistics corridor with modern rail infrastructure, mainly through Saudi Arabia, would begin with diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The goal was "achieved" because after the Israeli invasion of Gaza, such a rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia is off the table.?A recent article in Foreign Affairs says that after the Israeli invasion, "an overwhelming portion of the [Saudi Arabian] population, more than 90 percent, are against establishing ties with Israel."

I share three indicators, taken from the World Bank's World Development Indicators, about these two main players in the Persian Gulf. The figures are from 2022: ?

• Iran: population 88.6 million, current GDP 414 billion of US dollars, exports of goods and services 111 billion of US dollars.?
• Saudi Arabia: population 36.4 million, current GDP 1,109 billion of US dollars, exports of goods and services 446 billion of US dollars.?

But the main weakness of the Abraham Accords was that it left out... the Palestinians. In other words, the core of the Middle East conflict (the reason why all Arab countries have broken off or never established relations with Israel) was swept under the carpet, as if the two-state solution or anything like it were out of the question.

The main weakness of the Abraham Accords was that it left out... the Palestinians. In other words, the core of the Middle East conflict (the reason why all Arab countries have broken off or never established relations with Israel) was swept under the carpet.

I close this article with two revealing insights about the Abraham Accords as published in an article in the?Washington Post, barely three days ago—How Trump advanced Arab-Israeli peace but fueled Palestinian rage :?

• "[Trump's] son-in-law Jared Kushner, a former real estate investor and media executive who once told another Trump adviser that the Middle East portfolio resembled a real estate deal, according to a person familiar with the remark."
• "Brokered by Kushner, the Abraham Accords came about in secret, separate from established State Department procedures and instead enabled by affluent associates of the president and his family."

*A day before each article, I will publish a shorter piece (a post). Subscribe to my newsletter (on my profile), which I have renamed "Geopolitics beyond Houthis," to be notified of the articles.

Pablo Rodas-Martini ?holds a PhD and an MSc from Queen Mary and Westfield College (renamed?Queen Mary College ),?University of London .?