# Geopolitical Tightrope: India's Balancing Act Between Russia, Ukraine, and the West to Assert its Strategic Autonomy

Geopolitical Tightrope: India's Balancing Act Between Russia, Ukraine, and the West to Assert its Strategic Autonomy

?

The Opening Gambit

1.The Russia-Ukraine conflict has reverberated far beyond Europe, reshaping the geopolitical dynamics of numerous countries across the globe. For India, the conflict has been a diplomatic and strategic challenge that has necessitated a careful balancing act to maintain its geostrategic autonomy while managing relationships with major global powers such as the United States, NATO, Russia, and China. India’s response to the crisis is somewhat a reflection of its broader foreign policy approach, which seeks to navigate the complexities of global politics without becoming overly aligned with any one bloc.

The Pillars of India’s Geopolitical Strategy

2. India’s foreign policy has been guided by a commitment to strategic autonomy since its independence in 1947. This principle reflects India’s desire to chart its own course in international relations, free from the influence of any single power. In practice, this has meant maintaining a diverse range of partnerships and avoiding entanglement in great power rivalries. This policy has been put to the test by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has forced India to carefully navigate its relationships with Moscow and Washington while addressing its own strategic imperatives.

India’s response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been characterized by a policy of cautious neutrality. On the one hand, India has refrained from condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine outright, reflecting its historical ties with Moscow, which has been a major supplier of military hardware and a long-standing strategic partner. On the other hand, India has also emphasized the importance of respecting international law, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, signalling its discomfort with Russia’s actions in Ukraine. This nuanced position reflects India’s desire to maintain a balance between its various strategic interests and avoid alienating either side.

Modi’s Diplomatic Manoeuvring: Balancing Russia and Ukraine

3. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent diplomatic engagements in Ukraine and Russia provide a clear illustration of India's balancing act. Modi’s visit to Ukraine was particularly notable as it came shortly after his controversial visit to Russia, where he was seen in a warm embrace with President Vladimir Putin. This public display of camaraderie was met with criticism from Western capitals and sparked outrage in Kyiv, especially as it coincided with a Russian missile strike on a Ukrainian children’s hospital.

4. During his visit to Ukraine, Modi made a point of demonstrating India’s concern for the humanitarian impact of the conflict. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave him a warm embrace too and paid his respects at a memorial dedicated to children who have lost their lives in the war. This visit was seen as a gesture of solidarity with Ukraine and an attempt to reassure the West that India remains committed to upholding international norms and values.

5. The symbolism of Modi’s visit to Ukraine was not lost on the Indian media, which covered the trip extensively. By making a long train journey from Poland to Kyiv, Modi demonstrated India’s willingness to engage with all parties involved in the conflict, reinforcing its image as a potential mediator and a voice for the Global South. This approach aligns with India’s broader diplomatic strategy of advocating for the interests of developing countries, many of which have been adversely affected by the war’s impact on global food and energy supplies.

Strategic Implications of India's Stance

6. Modi's visits to Ukraine and Russia were not merely symbolic; they carried significant strategic implications for India’s foreign policy. India’s long-standing defence relationship with Russia has been a cornerstone of its strategic posture, particularly in the context of its security challenges with neighbouring China and Pakistan. Russia has been a reliable supplier of military hardware to India, and the two countries have engaged in numerous joint defence projects over the years.

7. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has complicated India’s defence relationship with Moscow. Western sanctions on Russia have raised concerns about the reliability of Russian military supplies and the potential for disruptions in defence cooperation. Moreover, Russia’s growing alignment with China, particularly in response to Western pressure, poses a strategic dilemma for India. India must weigh the benefits of its defence ties with Russia against the risks of being perceived as endorsing Russian aggression, which could strain its relations with the United States and its NATO allies.

8. During Modi's visit to Ukraine, the mention of defence cooperation in the joint statement was particularly significant. It suggested that India might be exploring alternative avenues for defence collaboration, potentially reducing its dependence on Russian military equipment. This development likely raised concerns in Moscow, which has traditionally viewed its defence partnership with India as a strategic asset. At the same time, it highlighted India’s desire to diversify its defence relationships and reduce its reliance on any single supplier.

Challenges to India's Geostrategic Autonomy

9. India's effort to maintain its geostrategic autonomy faces numerous challenges, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The first challenge comes from the increasing pressure from the United States and NATO. In recent years, India has significantly deepened its strategic partnership with the United States, particularly in the areas of defence, trade, and technology. The U.S. has become a key partner for India in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region, and there is growing cooperation between the two countries on a range of strategic issues.

10. However, the U.S. and its NATO allies have also been pressing India to reduce its dependence on Russian military equipment and align more closely with Western security frameworks. This pressure has been particularly evident in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Western officials calling on India to take a more definitive stance against Russia’s actions. This poses a dilemma for India, which must balance its desire to strengthen its relationship with the West against the need to maintain its long-standing ties with Russia.

11. China’s role in this equation cannot be underestimated. Beijing views India’s growing strategic partnership with the U.S. and its allies with suspicion and has responded with a mix of diplomatic and military assertiveness. The Sino-Indian border standoff and China’s expanding influence in the Indian Ocean and South Asia have underscored the strategic rivalry between the two countries. At the same time, China’s deepening ties with Russia complicate India’s strategic calculations, as India must handle its relationships with both countries while managing its own security concerns.

12. ?India’s efforts to maintain a balanced foreign policy are further complicated by its relationships with other global powers, including the European Union, the Middle East, and other Asian countries. Each of these relationships comes with its own set of challenges and expectations, making it difficult for India to pursue a consistent foreign policy that aligns with its strategic interests. For example, India’s energy needs require it to maintain good relations with Middle Eastern countries, while its economic interests necessitate strong ties with the European Union and other Asian economies.

?

?The U.S. and NATO's Calculated Approach and Vacillating Stance

?13. The United States and NATO have taken a nuanced approach to their relationship with India, reflecting a careful balancing of geopolitical interests. On one hand, they are keen to embrace India’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region and its active participation in initiatives such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). This group, which includes the U.S., Japan, and Australia, is seen as a key mechanism for countering China’s influence in Asia, and India's involvement is considered crucial for its effectiveness. The West sees India as a strategic partner that can contribute significantly to maintaining a balance of power in a region increasingly dominated by China.

14. However, there are also notable points of tension, particularly regarding India’s stance on Russia. U.S. and NATO officials have expressed concern over India's reluctance to fully endorse the Western position on isolating Russia, especially in the wake of Russia's aggressive actions on the global stage. This was evident during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Russia, where his meeting with President Vladimir Putin drew open criticism from U.S. officials. They saw the timing and symbolism of the visit as problematic, suggesting it could undermine Western efforts to exert pressure on Moscow and challenge its behaviour.

15. Despite these concerns, the United States and NATO understand the importance of maintaining a strong relationship with India. India’s strategic geographic location, its economic potential, and its role as a counterweight to China make it a valuable partner for the West. As a result, they have adopted a more nuanced strategy that combines elements of both pressure and incentive. While urging India to distance itself from Russia and align more closely with Western security frameworks, they also offer substantial incentives for closer cooperation. These include partnerships in defence, technology, and trade, areas where India stands to benefit significantly from balanced ties with the West.

16. This dual approach reflects the broader complexities of the U.S.-India relationship, which is shaped by both converging and diverging interests. On one side, both countries share a strategic interest in curbing China’s growing influence and are committed to promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific. On the other, differences over issues such as India's longstanding ties with Russia and specific trade policies continue to pose challenges. The U.S. and NATO’s strategy appears to be one of managing these differences while seeking to draw India closer into the Western fold through a combination of strategic engagement and diplomatic persuasion.

17. In essence, the U.S. and NATO are navigating a delicate path in their dealings with India. They recognize that India's unique position and interests mean that it will not always align perfectly with Western priorities. Nevertheless, they view India as an essential partner in their broader strategic calculations, particularly concerning the balance of power in Asia. By adopting a flexible approach that includes both encouragement and pressure, the West hopes to strengthen its ties with India, fostering a relationship that can support their shared interests while accommodating their differences. This strategy underscores the importance of India on the global stage and the careful diplomacy required to build a lasting partnership in a complex geopolitical landscape.

?

India's Strategic Predicament: Cruising a Complex Geopolitical Landscape

18.? India finds itself in a challenging and multifaceted geopolitical environment, requiring a delicate balancing act to maintain its strategic autonomy while engaging with various global powers. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought these challenges into sharp focus, exposing the inherent limitations and risks associated with India's multi-aligned foreign policy. As global power dynamics shift, India must carefully navigate its relationships with major powers such as the United States, NATO, China, and Russia, each presenting unique opportunities and challenges.

19. India's desire to be seen as a neutral power, capable of engaging with all sides, is increasingly tested by the pressures of great power competition. On one hand, India aims to avoid becoming overly aligned with any single power bloc, thereby preserving its strategic independence and flexibility. This approach allows India to manoeuvre through a complex web of international relations, balancing its ties with the U.S. and NATO, while also maintaining its long-standing relationship with Russia. However, this balancing act is not without its challenges. The demands from the U.S. and NATO for India to take a more definitive stance on Russia, particularly in light of the Ukraine conflict, have placed India in a difficult position.

20. Moreover, China’s rise as a global power presents another layer of complexity for India. The strategic rivalry between India and China, which is heightened by ongoing border disputes and competition for regional influence, has significant implications for India's foreign policy. As China continues to expand its influence across Asia and beyond, India is compelled to reassess its own strategic priorities. This has led to increased participation in initiatives such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), alongside the U.S., Japan, and Australia, aimed at countering China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region. However, India must tread carefully to avoid antagonizing China, which could lead to further regional instability.

21. ?India’s attempt to maintain a neutral stance and engage with all sides is often perceived by other global powers as indecisiveness or opportunism. This perception can undermine India’s credibility on the international stage and limit its ability to shape global outcomes. The balancing act becomes even more precarious when considering domestic factors, such as public opinion, economic considerations, and political dynamics, which also shape India’s foreign policy choices. For instance, India's dependence on Russian military equipment and its energy needs, complicate its ability to fully align with Western sanctions against Russia. Domestic political considerations, including the need to manage public sentiment and economic imperatives, further constrain India's foreign policy options.

22. Despite these challenges, India has managed to carve out a unique position for itself in the global order. Its strategic autonomy allows it to engage with a diverse set of actors and maintain a degree of flexibility that many other countries do not have. However, this autonomy comes with the responsibility of constant reassessment and adaptation. India must continuously evaluate its foreign policy in response to the evolving geopolitical landscape and the shifting power dynamics between major global players.

23. In essence, India's strategic predicament is characterized by its need to balance its desire for neutrality and strategic autonomy with the practical realities of great power politics and domestic influences. As global power structures continue to evolve, India must navigate its path with caution, carefully managing its relationships with major powers while preserving its own strategic interests. This requires a nuanced understanding of the global landscape and a willingness to adapt to new challenges, ensuring that India remains a key player on the world stage while safeguarding its own sovereignty and national interests.

?

Strategic Diversification: A Potential Path Forward

24. To sustain its geostrategic autonomy and navigate the complexities of the evolving global order, India needs to continue its strategy of multi-alignment while being more assertive in defining its strategic interests. This involves deepening its partnerships with like-minded countries, such as the U.S., Japan, Australia, and European nations, while retaining its historical ties with Russia and maintaining good relations with China and other regional powers.

25. India should also focus on diversifying its defence procurement and technology partnerships to reduce its dependence on any single country. Initiatives such as ‘Make in India’ in defence production can play a crucial role in this regard by fostering domestic capabilities and encouraging foreign collaborations. By diversifying its defence relationships, India can enhance its strategic flexibility and reduce the risks associated with over-reliance on any one supplier.

26. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India could leverage its relationships with both Russia and the West to play a more active role in diplomatic efforts aimed at conflict resolution. By positioning itself as a mediator, India can enhance its global standing and demonstrate its commitment to a rules-based international order. This would also align with India’s broader foreign policy goal of positioning itself as a leading voice for the Global South, advocating for the interests of developing countries on the global stage.

?

Addressing Domestic Challenges

27. While navigating the complexities of international geopolitics, India must also address the domestic challenges that impact its foreign policy. These include economic vulnerabilities, such as inflation and energy shortages, which have been somewhat exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Ensuring a stable economic foundation will be crucial for India to project power and influence on the global stage and pursue its strategic objectives.

28. Political consensus on foreign policy priorities is also essential for India to navigate the current geopolitical landscape effectively. However, the opposition hardly plays any constructive role in this matter, inordinately complicating the process of consensus-based policy making. ?However, notwithstanding the prevailing negative domestic political landscape, this requires a more inclusive approach to foreign policy decision-making, involving not just the government but also the broader political spectrum, civil society, and the private sector. By fostering a more inclusive and consultative foreign policy process, India can build a more robust and resilient foreign policy that is better equipped to handle the challenges of the 21st century.

Enhancing India’s Diplomatic Engagement

29. India’s diplomatic engagements should also be more proactive and forward-looking. This means not only reacting to global events but also anticipating potential challenges and opportunities. By being more proactive in its diplomacy, India can shape global debates and influence outcomes in a manner that aligns with its strategic interests. This will require a more dynamic and agile diplomatic apparatus, capable of responding to rapidly changing global dynamics.

30. India’s diplomatic engagement should also be more comprehensive, involving not just government-to-government interactions but also greater engagement with non-state actors, including think tanks, academia, civil society, and the private sector. By broadening its diplomatic outreach, India can build a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of global issues and develop more effective strategies for addressing them.

?

Quintessence

31. ?Navigating an Uncertain and Complex Global Geopolitical Ecosphere. India’s geopolitical balancing act in the face of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a testament to its desire to maintain strategic autonomy in an increasingly polarized world. While the challenges are formidable, they also present opportunities for India to redefine its role on the global stage. By carefully calibrating its diplomatic engagements and strategic partnerships, India can navigate the pressures from the U.S., NATO, Russia, and China while safeguarding its national interests and enhancing its global influence. The path forward will require a delicate balance of pragmatism, principle, and proactive diplomacy, but with the right strategies and a clear vision, India can emerge as a key player in shaping the future of the international order.

?