Russian tactical nuclear weapons exercise near Ukraine ? Chinese military drills near Taiwan ? Israeli strikes on Rafah
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Russia conducts tactical nuclear weapons exercise near Ukraine
On May 21st, 2024, Russia announced a military exercise in the vicinity of Ukraine that simulated the preparation for the launch of tactical nuclear weapons. The exercise involves military forces in Russia's Southern Military District, which borders Ukraine, but also includes parts of Ukraine currently occupied by Russia. Belarus, where Russia deployed tactical nuclear weapons in 2023, said that it will also be involved. Russia claims the exercise was in response to ‘provocative statements and threats’ by Western officials, pointing to comments by French President Emmanuel Macron about NATO countries possibly deploying troops to Ukraine and the United Kingdom’s Foreign Minister David Cameron’s assertion that Ukraine had the right to use weapons provided by the UK to attack Russian territory.?
According to Russia’s Ministry of Defence, the exercise involved Iskander and Kinzhal missiles, with troops seen readying mobile Iskander systems in a video published by the ministry. The warhead on the missile, claimed to be a ‘special purpose warhead,’ is blurred to obscure the tip, possibly indicating it is not a nuclear one. Iskander missiles are capable of carrying both nuclear and conventional warheads, with Russia increasingly using them against Ukraine as it has been depleting its stockpile of conventional missiles.??
The move to blur the warhead has been described by some experts as an attempt of nuclear coercion, being both unnecessary and theatrical. The exercise is likely designed as a warning to deter Western countries and serve as a reminder of Russia’s threat to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine if it senses an ‘existential threat.’ Senior NATO officials have disregarded such comments as intimidation and psychological warfare but nevertheless consider them dangerous as they erode trust. Tactical nuclear weapons are less powerful than the strategic missiles, but they still have vast destructive potential. Some Western analysts believe tactical nuclear weapons have become more important in Russian military thinking since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. Details of Russia’s nuclear programme continue to be secret, though Russia is estimated to have about 1,558 tactical nuclear warheads.
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China conducts military drills surrounding Taiwan
On May 23rd, 2024, China declared two days of military drills in the Taiwan Strait and around groups of Taiwan-controlled islands by the Chinese coast. The drills, dubbed ‘Joint Sword - 2024A’, include crossing the strait’s median line and staging mock attacks on Taiwanese and foreign vessels in order to test the ‘joint real combat capabilities’ of China’s forces. Taiwan’s defence ministry said 15 Chinese navy ships, 16 coast guard, and 33 aircraft are involved, but that no live fire drills have been held in areas close to Taiwan. Taiwan responded to the drills by scrambling its own jets and putting multiple missile, naval, and land units on alert.
The event follows the recent inauguration speech of Taiwan’s newly-elected president, Lai Ching-Te, in which he suggested that he will not accept the one-China principle, taking a more explicit stance on the matter when compared to his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen. Chinese state media denounced Lai’s speech as dangerous, with China’s Taiwan Affairs Office calling it a confession of Taiwanese independence. The drills were deemed a punishment by China for perceived ‘separatist acts’ in Taiwan, as well as a warning against collusion and interference by external forces.
The drills are reportedly smaller in scope and intensity compared to similar exercises in August 2022 and April 2023, with China likely not wanting to excessively raise tensions with the United States and Japan, whose Ishigaki Island is close to Taiwan. The drills are considered ‘concerning’ but expected behaviour in light of Lai’s victory in January 2024, with a reprisal of drills having been expected after China’s initially muted response. China is likely to continue relying on such ‘greyzone’ activities to pressure Taiwan without provoking a strong international backlash. The tag associated with the current drills also suggests the possibility of follow-ups in future, which is likely due to Lai’s more explicit stance on Taiwanese independence.
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Israeli airstrikes on Rafah spark international condemnation
Israel has received strong international backlash for a recent airstrike on Rafah, conducted on May 26th, 2024, that killed 45 people and wounded 249 located in a camp for displaced Palestinian refugees. The Israel Defense Force claimed intelligence led them to target two senior Hamas leaders in the area. Further attacks on May 27th, 2024, also impacted the region’s Indonesian Field Hospital and Kuwaiti Speciality Hospital, forcing the latter to shut down. Political figureheads, including Emmanuel Macron, David Cameron, and Guido Crosetto, condemned the attacks, with Algeria also calling an emergency UN Security Council meeting for May 28th, 2024, to discuss the incident, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called a ‘tragic accident’. ?
The attacks occurred hours after Hamas fired a barrage of rockets at Tel Aviv, most of which were intercepted. The backlash from the attacks also follows a recent ruling issued by the International Court of Justice on May 26th, 2024, regarding Israel’s ongoing actions in Rafah. The ruling led to uncertainty over whether it means Israel must immediately halt its operations, or if it can continue as long as it does not pose a genocidal risk.??
The ongoing attacks will further worsen the situation on the ground in Rafah, with the impact of the strikes exacerbated by damage to hospitals and their supplies, as well as the restricted movement of ambulances. The resulting public backlash is also likely to bolster international solidarity for Palestine, with Spain, Norway, and Ireland already having set to recognise a Palestinian state on May 28th, 2024. Israel’s own investigation into the attacks is unlikely to result in a strong admission of guilt, with Israel likely to minimise the attribution of responsibility as it continues its movements into the heart of Rafah.
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