Iranian influence operation ahead of US election ? Trump targeted in assassination attempt ? Casualties in Mogadishu after al-Shabaab attack
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Iranian influence operations observed ahead of US presidential election
On July 9th, 2024, the United States Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, issued the first of what she said will be consistent updates about foreign interference targeting the upcoming US presidential election. Iran has reportedly become increasingly aggressive in its foreign influence efforts, with Iranian government actors taking advantage of protests against the war in Gaza by posing as activists online, seeking to encourage protests and, in some cases, supporting the protesters financially. The foreign interference operations aim to exploit public opinion, which is already highly polarised, with even a small presence of foreign actors having the potential to fuel further discord.?
Protests have been ongoing on university campuses across the US since the October 2023 Hamas attack and the subsequent military response by Israel. The influence operations have been observed on various social media platforms, where Iranian-backed accounts have been spreading disinformation and propaganda, using fake profiles and bots to amplify their messages and create the illusion of widespread support. Haines clarified that, although US intelligence does not think that the protest movement was created by foreign actors and that many are expressing their views in good faith, it is important to warn of actors who seek to exploit it. She added that many of the targets of Iran’s clandestine operation are likely unaware they are interacting with or receiving support from a foreign government. ?
With only four months to go until the US presidential election, such covert influence operations could sway public opinion and influence the outcome of the election. The spread of disinformation and propaganda could also undermine trust in the US political system and its institutions. Disinformation campaigns are not uncommon in the run-up to elections, with such activity expected to increase as the election draw closer, likely drawing on other highly divisive topics.
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US election campaign marred by assassination attempt on Trump
On July 13th, 2024, former United States President Donald Trump was targeted in an assassination attempt during a Republican rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The attacker has been identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, who was shot dead by Secret Service agents. Crooks’ motivations for the attack are currently unknown but it has been confirmed he acted alone. The assassination attempt comes at a time when the US is already facing an immensely divisive political climate, with various Republicans now pointing blame at the Democrats for using rhetoric that has led to an environment which encourages such violence.
Trump managed to avoid serious injury, with the bullet aimed at him only grazing his ear. However, at least one rally attendee was killed and two others suffered injuries. Current US President Joe Biden condemned the attack, stating that such violence cannot be allowed to be normalised and calling on the political rhetoric to be ‘cooled down.’ The incident marks the first attempted assassination attempt on a former US President since 1981, when Ronald Reagan was targeted. Questions now also arise as to how Crooks was able to get so close to an assassination without Secret Service noticing.?
With the current political climate so heated, the assassination attempt may change the narrative of the presidential campaigns for both Democrats and Republicans. Biden’s campaign rhetoric has mostly focused on the danger that Trump poses to the nation, with many Republicans, and reportedly Russia, accusing such narratives to be stoking political violence and being the direct cause of the assassination attempt. Democrats are now expected to take a step back from such narratives and instead focus their discussions on denouncing violence. For Republicans, Biden’s ability to serve another term as US president has been a main talking point and calls for him to step down have only intensified following the most recent presidential election debate. The attempted assassination may have given Republicans further fuel, with Trump’s characterisation of being a ‘brave martyr’ having been strengthened, and possibly even swaying currently undecided voters. No matter the new narratives, voters need to also pay close attention to conspiracy theories being launched that are spreading misinformation and disinformation surrounding the assassination attempt.
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Multiple casualties following al-Shabab terrorist attack and prison break in Mogadishu
On July 14th, 2024, nine individuals were killed and 20 more injured in a terrorist attack claimed by jihadist group al-Shabab. The attack involved a car bomb that exploded outside of a cafe in Mogadishu during a streaming of the Euro 2024 final. It damaged multiple buildings near the official presidential residence, Villa Somalia, with the location reportedly chosen for being frequented by security and government workers. ?
The attack is a continuation of al-Shabab’s ongoing efforts to bring down Mogadishu’s fragile central government, with the group having carried out multiple bombings in Mogadishu and other parts of Somalia in the last 17 years. It coincided with an attempted prison break by inmates from Mogadishu’s Central Prison. The incident resulted in the death of five prisoners and three soldiers, with 18 prisoners and three soldiers also wounded. The prisoners involved in the incident are believed to members of al-Shabab, who secretly obtained weapons and grenades in an attempt to escape the prison. ?
Attacks by al-Shabab have largely declined in recent months, with the group the subject of a sustained, collaborative offensive by the Somali government, security forces, local armed groups, the African Union Force and United States air raids. However, coupled with the fact that al-Shabab claimed to have captured multiple locations in the centre of Somalia in early 2024, the attacks suggest that al-Shabab are still operationally strong and the government is far from establishing a strong foothold in the country. The attacks are likely to strengthen Somalia’s calls to slow the planned withdrawal of African Union troops from the country as part of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, which is seeking to completely withdraw by December 31st, 2024. The incidents are also likely to prompt increased security measures that will result in increased disruptions for local businesses and transport.
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