Geopolitical Monitoring Report | June 15, 2022

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Colombia | Colombia's police on highest alert over election violence: Reuters

Background:

Colombian authorities have reportedly uncovered plans by radical groups to reject the country’s upcoming second-round vote in its presidential election on June 19 and launch a series of violent attacks across the country.

The threats of violence were discovered on social media and on darknet websites, and police responded to the threats by carrying out 57 operations and arresting 267 members of radical political groups, some of which participated in last year’s anti-government protests.

These threats come as the country may be on the verge of electing its first leftist president, Gustavo Petro, or businessman and political outsider, Rodolfo Hernandez. Current polling shows Hernandez with a slight lead going into the second round, with neither candidate above 50%, which may explain why Petro has been warning of possible voter fraud in the second round. Petro won the first round by almost 15 percentage points, with the center-right vote being split between Hernandez and another candidate.?

Impact:

The upcoming election will have significant consequences for both Colombia and the region, as exemplified by the wide-reaching election disinformation campaign originating in Venezuela discovered by Nisos researchers.?

A victory for Hernandez would effectively continue Colombia’s reputation as a business-friendly country in the region and would not disrupt the country’s fossil fuel and minerals industries. While there could indeed be violence in urban areas following a Hernandez win, authorities seem aware of this risk and have taken proactive action that will reduce the impact.

A victory for Petro would result in an immediate ban on new fossil fuel exploration and would result in attempts to ban the extraction of fossil fuels permanently. Given that fossil fuels make up half of the country’s exports, it is unlikely that Petro would be able to end the industry entirely over the course of one four-year term, but his policies would likely have a significant damaging impact on the sector.

Attacks by paramilitary groups, such as the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissident fighters from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), will likely decrease as both candidates favor negotiations with these groups and reinstating the 2016 peace agreement with the FARC that the current president “modified” and expanding the deal to include the ELN.

Regionally, Petro would likely expand ties with other leftist leaders in Latin America, such as Chile’s Gabriel Boric and Mexico’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and work against U.S. interests in the region. This could be a benefit to China, Iran, and Russia, who have all sought influence in the region to the detriment of the U.S.

Hernandez – who takes little interest in foreign affairs – is likely to maintain the country’s current, pro-U.S. policies and continue working closely with Washington on regional issues.?

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