Geopolitical Monitoring Report | June 10, 2022

Top Story

Latin America/United States | Biden, Looking for Unity, Faces Criticism From Latin American Leaders: New York Times

Background:

President Joe Biden promised significant U.S. commitments to fighting poverty and addressing the challenge posed by irregular migration in Latin America during his speech at the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles on Thursday.

The president’s comments were met with skepticism from attendees over the U.S.'s refusal to invite the governments of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, which has overshadowed the proceedings. A regional boycott of the summit over the exclusion of these countries was led by Mexico, with Bolivia, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras joining and also not participating.

The Biden Administration hopes to salvage the gathering by issuing the “Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection” today to address irregular migration in the region.

The Summit of the Americas typically occurs every three to four years, and this was the first time the U.S. has hosted the event since 1994.

Impact:

The inability of the U.S. to stave off the boycott of key regional nations – most notably Mexico – effectively doomed the summit to failure. While the Biden Administration will likely tout the “Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection” as a victory, it is hard to imagine any compact on irregular migration being effective without the participation of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico.

In addition, many of the regional leaders that did attend were focused on securing greater U.S. economic investment, but the U.S. did not attempt to negotiate any new regional trade agreements or direct foreign investment in regional economies.

This greatly contrasts China’s approach in Latin America, which has led to it becoming the largest trade partner for most of the region, due to its focus on economic investment without political pre-conditions. In addition, Beijing has also launched the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States Forum – which invited all regional countries – to encourage regional countries to parrot pro-Beijing talking points.?

In short, the summit, which is designed to demonstrate regional unity, has instead revealed deep divisions in the Western Hemisphere and shown that countries in the region are challenging U.S. influence.

These challenges to U.S. regional hegemony are likely to continue in the future, as Latin American nations are working to forge alliances outside of the region and left-wing leaders are continuing to capture presidencies in the latest “pink-tide” to sweep the region. These newly elected leftist leaders – who may soon be joined by the return of Lula de Silva in Brazil and Gustavo Petro in Colombia – are more likely to be sympathetic to China as opposed to the U.S., due to ideological considerations.?

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