Genomics (illumina) update Oct 2016 for Oct 2017

Illumina is almost synonymous with Genomics - but what is happening to the genomics world? Over supply? But with only one oil well - prices can be kept higher, for how long? 

Simplified view of share market: There is a stable share price "state of equilibrium" say $150 / share. The price can jump up or fall down based on great news or bad news. Every company releases time and again great news to move the state of equilibrium up. Good news can also come from outside like a larger fish threatening to swallow paying high premium. It cannot be just News but equivalent action or it will slowly goback (market correction) to equilibrium. By smartly spreading out the news and posting new News before the old one fades away, companies try to keep the equilibrium up and up with some real action too.  BEARs depend on bad news and buy shares when it hits THE low and sell off at or above equilibrium. BULLs depend on good news and they buy close to equilibrium or above and sell when it hits high - this is when folks do profit booking and the price comes down to new /old equilibrium.  Obviously some one has to loose a lot of monies or a lot have to loose a little bit for a few to cleverly make loads of cash in the share market.  For a company like illumina which is synonymous to the Genomics market, the share price is = market sentiment on Genomics. Since illumina take the major slice of the pie - there is no use taking bigger slices ==> better to work on increasing the size of the pie! Note that market cap = #shares X share price. All companies slowly and steadily increase the number of shares (example ESOPs) / issue bonus shares to share holders (and CEO and higher management) without affecting the share price. They can also buy back shares which directly indirectly increases the share price. There is also another term to know "book value" the real value of a company that banks use OR what is called as balance sheet. The difference between the book value and the marketcap = the air in the bubble.  Some part of the air is life saving oxygen and rest could be by gut microbiome, one never know.  Knowing that is the secret of success in share trading art.   Market analysts and Market reviews are messengers of good news they tend to keep the bubble big.

Illumina's Q3 Revenues Fall Short of Guidance; Shares Tumble
"Oct 10, 2016  a GenomeWeb staff reporter
NEW YORK (GenomeWeb) –
https://www.genomeweb.com/sequencing/illuminas-q3-revenues-fall-short-guidance-shares-tumble

Update: Many sent me the question if X10 a good business model for service providers - I don't have ANY connect to Economics professor D trump even though I have read his workings.  Using his theorems: It is a case of one oil well and dozens of competing petroleum refineries - it is good for the consumer and the Sultan (in the short term).  May be it is as profitable as Casino Trump TajMahal.  That said, I am happy to play in the Casino as monies are there to make till it is open for business.  https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-taj-mahal-casino-is-closing-amid-a-labor-dispute-2016-10?IR=T

Might be still a good idea if 100K genomes have to sequenced using public funded projects - but to think about really making use of such massive data would require several sessions** with barrels of beer for the 100s employed in such genome centres.  ** Repeating the good old way the inventors of Solexa sequencing thought about the SBS idea!

 Here are my comments to the genomeweb article.  A view from the inside and a view from the future.
MY COMMENTS ARE IN CAPS - MY TRIPs TO THE FUTURE USING TIME MACHINE AND THE GOOD OLD CRYSTAL BALL PREDICTIONS ARE INDEED COMING TRUE

"In Tuesday morning trade on the Nasdaq, shares of Illumina tumbled 25 percent to $138.37 in response to the announcement." THIS IS UNEXPECTED FOR A MINOR SHORTFALL OF JUST 18 MILLION DOLLARS - JUST TWO MORE X10S WOULD HAVE DONE THE TRICK.  I AM NOT SURE IF ANY OF THE MARKET ANALYSTS HAVE A CRYSTAL BALL OR THEY ARE USING MY PREDICTIONS AS GUIDELINES?  this explains how markets respond, they either panic or remain super optimistic (else they would have invested in Gold or fixed deposits or may be real estate!).

"the firm received fewer orders than it had expected for HiSeq 2500 and HiSeq 4000 instruments"    IT IS CLEAR THAT WITH LESS THAN 1/2 X PRICES FOR REAGENTS TO X10S, IT IS NO MORE PRUDENT TO BUY A HISEQ.  MY CRYSTAL BALL PREDICTED ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING RUN IN X10S AND NOT LIMITED TO HUMAN WHOLE GENOMES.  WHAT IS LEFT ARE EXOMES AND RNASEQ AND 16S METAGENOMES FOR THE MIGHTY HISEQS (PROVIDED X10 FOLKS FOLLOW THE RULE).  SIMPLY COMPARE A 8 CAPILLARY SANGER SEQUENCER WITH A 96 CAPILLARY MACHINE AND YOU DONT NEED A CRYSTAL BALL. HISEQ 2500? who is still buying 4 CAPILLARY SEQUENCERS? INTERESTING TO KNOW DESPITE BEING OUTDATED MiSeqs are STILL BEING SOLD - MAY BE BECAUSE A SMALLER COST TO WRITE OFF?  MAY BE BECAUSE IT HAS TRUE UTLITIES LIKE PANELS, SMALL RNASEQ 16S METAGENOMES AND SMALL GENOMES THAT X10s CANNOT TAKE.   When you are in very strong position (in chess) tactical mistakes won't cost you the game, but strategic mistakes?   Someone should have realized the mistake of X10s and applied newton's 3rd law to over compensate with a 0.1X tuktuk without realizing the golden formula of Californian business: if you want to shoot-Shoot, if you want to talk-talk.  It is interesting to note that Miseq is preferred over the cheaper and advanced Tuktuk by academic and diagnostic users.

However, the firm is "no longer counting on an uptick in high-throughput sequencing instrument" sales, he said. 
"Amanda Murphy, an analyst with William Blair, wrote, "While there may be overcapacity in the system, which may take some time to sort out, we continue to believe the sequencing space is far from mature."
 OVERCAPACITY in the system?  MY CRYSTAL BALL SAID IN 2015 OVER CAPACITY VERY SOON.  Sequencing and Smart phone spaces never get matured. 

and also "closed one less HiSeq X system deal than anticipated,"
YOU DON'T NEED A STREET SMART MARKET ANALYST TO KNOW THIS - JUST TALK To THOSE WHO BOUGHT X10, THEY ARE WILLING TO SLEEP WITH THE ENEMIES TO FEED THE ELEPHANTS.

Illumina's diagnostics business would take six to nine years to "develop significant commercial traction and the consequent investment in Helix and Grail will limit market expansion at the company."  AH HA HA PREDICTING THE FUTURE WITHOUT PAYING ME ROYALTIES?  I SEE A FUTURE WHERE THE GENOMICS BASED DIAGNOSTIC BUSINESS PIONEERED BY ILLUMINA TAKEN OVER BY OTHERS WHO ARE WILLING TO SHARE THE PIE.    DIAGNOSTICS NEED STABILITY - TECHNOLOGY NEEDS CONSTANT UPGRADES.  MARRYING THESE TWO WOULD RESULT IN A LIMPING Usain Bolt CUAGHT DANCING WITH THE WRONG GIRL.

"remains the market leader in one of the most promising areas of healthcare," and "competitive dynamics seemingly remain favorable."   TRUE AND WILL REMAIN TRUE FOR A FEW MORE YEARS - DURING TIME TRAVEL INTO FUTURE I FOUND AN ALIEN TRIBE BRINGING DOWN THE ROMAN EMPIRE EFFORTLESSLY.  I AM NOT SURE IF I TRAVELED BEYOND 2020 THOUGH.

IS THERE A WAY OUT FOR ILLUMINA?  YES - FUTURE CAN BE CHANGED IF IT CONTINUES WITH INNOVATION - MAKE A 2 COLOR HIGH THROUGHPUT BOX - FASTER AND CHEAPER THAN X10.  PATTERNED FLOWCELLS FOR NEXTSEQ = current hiseq.   MAKE A SUB 10K BOX THAT GOES INTO EVERY LAB LIKE A QPCR MACHINE, A SUB 1K DEVICE THAT IS USED BY NURSES.  THE MOMENT ILLUMINA WEARS THE HAT OF ROCHE OR THERMO TO BOOK PROFITS OUT OF PAST INNOVATIONS- DOOMS DAY's ARRIVAL DATE MOVES FORWARD. THE MNCs BOOK PROFITS WITH LOW COST HIGH VOLUME BUSINESS, NOT HIGH COST LOW VOLUME.  

EVEN WORSE, X10s TAKEOUT THE art and science of MARKETING AND SALES OF THE BUSINESS TEAMS.  LESSER CUSTOMERS AND PROCESS DRIVEN - IF A CREDIBLE COMPETITION ARRIVES, THE WEAKNESS WILL SHOWUP: THERE ARE ALIEN TRIBES WAITING TO INVADE ROME- ATOM BOMBS CANNOT BE USED AGAINST THEM, ARE YOU READY FOR HAND TO HAND (LAB TO LAB) FIGHTS FOR INCHES OF SPACE?

THE OTHER BOXES ARE NOT EVEN WORTH MENTIONING, LIKE QIAGEN'S BOX WHICH HAS NOT EVEN ARRIVED IN India.  PGM AND PROTON AND THE YES boxes are competing with Miseq!   PACBIO COMPETING WITH NANOPORES - WELL, NOTHING MUCH TO SAY, I SEE THEM IN MUSEUMS OF THE FUTURE.  

Those who don't understand American Capitalism and markets please watch the US presidential debates.

i WILL BE BACCCKKK in the future with further news from the distant future.

PS: Apart from poetic messages from the future, there is an encrypted message that only Tamil speakers can understand better (see below).