In 2017, a new generation of voters take over India

It is a well-known fact that we are one of the youngest countries in the world. What is not so widely discussed is that we are in the middle of a dramatic demographic and generational change unheard in our history. We will illustrate this in the following two charts.

It shows that for the first time since Independence that the total number of people born in a 5 year period is coming down over the previous 5 years. In fact, the total number of children born between 2007 and 2011 was almost the same as those born between 1987 and 1992. 

These patterns are consistent across various regions. Every region in the country has added fewer people between 2007 and 2011 than the previous two periods. In fact, in South India, the 2007-2011 period had the lowest addition in population since the period 1967 to 1971! 

Study of demographics has useful implications for political parties and businesses. One of the key markers to study demographics is generation segments. While it is quite difficult to define precisely by any measure what a generation is, it is quite evident that understanding the size, shape and predominant behaviours of any pre-defined generation offers a wonderful input to business or political decisions.

Multiple attempts have been made in the past to define generation segments, the most popular being the American segments – Baby Boomers, Gen X and Millennials. A similar attempt was made in India by Dheeraj Sinha classifying segments into Partition, Transition and No-String’s generation. We borrow from these ideas to some extent but hope to build further depth into the segmentation warding off some of the criticism to the earlier segmentation methods. Further, we intend to explain the relevance of our segments far beyond marketing to perhaps every realm of our lives whether it is consumerism, organisational behaviour or politics etc

In this article, the emphasis is on the statistics and make up of these segments. 

Definitions and Overview

The year wise markers are related to the different kinds of exposures that the generation may have during their formative years. Those born from 1985 onwards for example are more likely to have had significantly different experiences about India - Open market, High Media penetration, Comfortable Job Market, Lack of rationing and so on versus say the Socialist Generation who have been brought up through a different set of experiences - Rationing, Difficult Job Market, Political Upheavel, Terrorism, religious conflicts, the Cold war. etc Almost 1 in 3 Socialists is an illiterate while it is three times lesser amongst those from the Liberalized generation.  While only 40m from the Socialist generation have a graduate degree, more than 3 times that number amongst the Liberalized generation are likely to have a graduate degree. While the Socialist generation lives with the hope that India is going to do well some day, he/she also regrets the lost opportunities. The Liberalized generation regrets less and is also probably less worried about national success. However, the greatest differences between the two generations is how they handle fear and relationships. The Liberalized generation are far more affluent, more willing to be assertive, extremely confident about themselves and therefore more willing to take risks. Most start up founders are in the age band of 25-35 and born on the cusp of the Socialist and Liberalized generations. 

While the generations are clearly defined by time periods, the learning from other similar exercises is that due to differing economic progress, cultural environment and exposure to media we believe that every generation will have some proportion of members who may ahead or behind most of their generation. Therefore, it is likely that a small proportion from the Independence generation on account of their attitude, background, affluence and education may be no different from the Liberalized generation and vice versa. Further we also would like to point out that while there may be stereotypical attributes of every generation, it is not expected that every individual will demonstrate those behaviours.  

Key Statistical Characteristics of Generations

 Overall Size and Geographic Spread - 2011

In South and West, the proportion of Globalized generation in the population will be lower or almost the same as the Socialist generation for the next 20-30 years. The Liberalized generation alone are larger in numbers than a combination of Socialist and Independence generation in the North whereas it is the reverse in the West and the South. The East will be different because it is the only region where the Globalized generation will be larger than the Liberalized generation. Therefore, the challenges and behaviour of the South and West will be quite different from the North and the East. 

The most challenged generation would be the socialist generation who would perhaps be responsible to support most of the liberalized as well as the independence generation and some of the Globalized generation. This group currently constitutes most of our voting and working population and probably the most insecure/anxious voters of all the groups

Literacy and Employment

Somewhere between 2020-2025, the number of workers from the liberalized generation will overtake the number of workers from the Socialist Generation. This will also coincide with the end of a probable second term of current PM Modi. The Liberalized generation workforce will be the largest generation of workers in the history of India, compared to the past as well as to the future.

 Estimated share of population and per capita income at end of period

The Globalized generation will truly enjoy some of the privileges of being part of a middle income country, medium growth in GDP, low population growth rates as well as lesser dependency of other generations on them.

In Sum

The interesting change in India’s demographics offers numerous opportunities for study that we intend to cover over the next few months. Already, our studies in politics has revealed that the booming BJP vote share (or dropping Congress vote share) coincides with the growth in the share of 'Socialist' Population. This also coincided with numerous other factors including increased education and media penetration. Our studies also show that the Liberalized generation are not voting like the Socialist generation and parties that work hard and long term can significantly up their vote shares with these segments by the 2024 election. The following voting population numbers (mortality not considered) indicate a potential game changing trend

2014 : Socialist Generation: 334 m, Liberalized Generation: 279m

2019 : Socialist Generation: 334 m, Liberalized Generation: 412m

2024 : Socialist Generation: 334 m, Liberalized Generation: 488m

By these calculations, the Liberalized generation which was smaller than Socialist generation in 2014, would become larger than the Socialist generation in 2017, 23% higher in 2019 and 50% higher in 2024. India's politics will change yet again over the next 5-10 years. Are we ready for it?