General Escalation – Sergei Sorovikin & A Turn For The Worse (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #215)

As expected, the Kremlin will not go down without a ferocious fight. To this end, Vladimir Putin has appointed Sergei Surovikin to lead the Russian Army in Ukraine. Surovikin has a reputation for ruthlessness. This trait appeals to Putin’s sadistic instincts. In his most infamous assignment, Surovikin led the Russian destruction of Aleppo in 2016. He also fought in both Chechen Wars which were marked by their vicious nature. Surovikin has been described as a “butcher”. His method of waging war can be summed up as attack the enemy with extreme prejudice. Everywhere Surovikin has fought, brutality has followed. He is a favorite of hardliners in Russia who have been disgusted with the Russian Army’s failures. They refuse to acknowledge the obvious, that the Ukrainians have everything to fight for and the Russians nothing at all other than to save the Putin regime which got them into this mess.

Utterly Ruthless – The Butcher’s Bio

At this point in the war, Putin is desperate for positive results to justify the war. These are difficult times for the Russian President. Putin is beginning to come in for criticism at home. He handpicked Surovikin to quiet the increasingly vocal nationalists who threaten to undermine his regime. Surovoikin has a long history of following military orders to the letter even if it means attacking his fellow Russians. The most notorious example of Surovikin’s “just following orders” mentality occurred in 1991 when hardline communists attempted a coup in Moscow to save the Soviet Union from collapse. Tanks under Surovkin’s control ran into protestors. The coup ended up failing and Surovikin spent six months in jail before being acquitted of the charges. This was not Surovikin’s only brush with the law. In 1995 he was convicted of illicit arms dealing and given a suspended sentence.

Known for his bad temper, Surovikin is said to be extremely harsh with his subordinates. A stunning example of this occurred earlier in his career when a fellow officer committed suicide in his presence. This was due in part to Surovikin’s blistering criticism.  Stocky with broad shoulders, shaved head and heavy bags under his eyes, Surovikin looks like a Bond villain from central casting. He is a merciless man who the hardliners believe is the most effective commander Russia has left. The time was right for Surovikin’s promotion from the Kremlin’s perspective. Putin just dismissed two more senior commanders for failing to stop Ukraine’s latest counteroffensive. Since the war started in February, Putin has replaced many high-ranking officers who fail to perform up to his expectations. What Putin does not realize is that he is the one constant in the litany of Russian failures in Ukraine. Now he hopes that Surovikin can save the Russian Army.   

Ruthless war - Smoke rising from Russian missile attack on Kyiv

Waging Terror – An Indiscriminate Strategy

Surovikin’s indiscriminate methods of waging war have Russian ultra-nationalists and influential military bloggers cheering his selection. They are overlooking the fact that the war in Ukraine is very different from the one in Syria. Rebel forces in Syria were not being supplied with western weaponry which is superior to that fielded by the Russians. Rebel forces in Syria were neither large, nor coherently organized. Factionalism was rife. They did not have the defenses to thwart Russian aerial bombardments and missile strikes. The Russians enjoyed air superiority in Syria. Their ability to wage terror was abetted by superior technology. Surovikin’s take no prisoners approach worked well there. It is doubtful if he will enjoy the same success in Ukraine. Those who vocally advocated for Surovikin’s promotion ignore the fact that he already commanded in northern Ukraine earlier in the war. Those operations did little to change the war’s outcome.

While the Russians still enjoy an advantage in the amount of weaponry they can bring to the battlefield, the Ukrainians enjoy technological superiority. In the latter’s case, less is more. A precision guided missile, bomb or drone can destroy a target in one strike. Russian forces’ indiscriminate artillery attacks are less effective because many of their weapons are antiquated. Ukraine continues to be supplied by the west with extremely accurate weapons systems. Accuracy trumps volume on the battlefield. It is different when attacking civilians. This looks to be an area where Surovikin will focus.

An example of his dirty work occurred 48 hours after he took overall command. The reprisal missile strikes Russia unleashed upon civilians in response to the Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Bridge were some of the war’s worst. A dramatic escalation in the breadth and scale of such attacks must be expected. Surovikin reportedly has a free hand in prosecuting the war however he sees fit. This will mean targeting and terrorizing civilians. On the surface this strategy would seem to be no different from what Russia tried during the war’s first seven months, but with Surovikin in charge it will intensify. Expect unprecedented levels of violence to be visited upon civilians in Ukraine. Also, expect the Russian military to be brutal in their prosecution of attacks.

General escalation - Sergey Surovikin with Vladimir Putin

Cannon Fodder – A Recipe For Defeat

Escalating terror attacks will do nothing to change the Russian Army’s dire situation on the battlefield. Russian conscripts should be worried about fighting for an army commanded by Surovikin. He is as likely to be as cruel to his own forces as he is with the Ukrainians. Putin’s partial mobilization has been an organizational nightmare with at last count, 700,000 able bodied, Russian men fleeing abroad. Those left behind are not exactly the cream of the crop. Many are middle aged, out of shape recruits who have no business fighting in the most lethal conflict Europe has experienced since the Second World War. Russian soldiers were already being killed and wounded at an astronomical rate. Now with Surovikin in command, the chance of becoming cannon fodder will rise. Forcing a bunch of undertrained conscripts to fight against a highly professionalized, battle-hardened Ukrainian Army is a recipe for defeat. Putin probably cares less. His goal right now has less to do with winning the war. He has to quiet domestic discontent before it gets out of control. Promoting Surovikin does just that, but only for the time being.