Gen AI and Scenario Planning
Jim Hamill (Dr)
Director at The Future Ready Hub - supporting organisations in becoming future ready for an increasingly volatile, digital and AI world.
We test Gen AI's potential role in supporting future-ready scenario planning. The results suggest that generative AI systems, used effectively, have already become an indispensable ally in planning future readiness.
Introduction
There is growing awareness of the important role Gen AI can play in supporting scenario planning.
In a recent?California Management Review?paper, the authors claim that:?
'A promising alternative is emerging that can overcome the challenges of traditional approaches to scenario planning. It entails enlisting the assistance of cutting-edge generative AI systems powered by large neural network models. From experiments we have conducted, and as?recently published*, we believe generative AI can significantly enhance an organization’s capability to conduct robust contingency scenario planning faster and at a much lower cost than conventional processes. Some Fortune 500 firms are beginning to incorporate generative AI in continency planning, but we believe this approach would also be beneficial for resource-constrained organizations like small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are operating in highly challenging environments, such as those prone to extreme weather events.'
According to the authors, Gen AI can support scenario planning in five key tasks:?
In a related LinkedIn article,?Bhurariya (2024)?lists the following benefits of using Gen AI in scenario planning:
'Overall, generative AI complements scenario planning by providing a data-driven and efficient approach to generate diverse scenarios, analyze potential outcomes, and uncover hidden insights. It enhances decision-making by enabling organizations to consider a broader range of possibilities and make more informed choices.'
Lisa Bodell puts it nicely in a?2023 Forbes?article:
'You know the annual drill: you and your teams gather data, identify trends, set goals and develop action plans. Your reward for producing a strategic plan? A stress-anxiety-exhaustion hangover and the assurance that your plan will be outdated or irrelevant by end of year. Where traditional strategic planning has become overly complex and time-consuming, AI-powered knowledge services like ChatGPT, Bard and ChatSonic are transforming our ability to imagine business scenarios and complete our strategic plans in less time with fewer resources. From simplifying complex tasks and speeding up processes to providing insightful data analysis that deepens our decision-making.'
Radical Scenarios for the Future of Higher Education
To test Gen AI's potential in this area, building on our previous post,?Rethinking Higher Education, we asked ChatGPT-4 to prepare five radical scenarios for the future of higher education using the Phoenix Encounter Method.
Prompt 1
'Using The Phoenix Encounter Method, please prepare five radical future scenarios for the higher education sector. This should include a radical rethink of the underlying business model of higher education.'
ChatGPT Response
Here are five radical future scenarios for the higher education sector:
Scenario 1: The Fully Decentralized University
Description: In this scenario, the traditional campus-based university has disappeared. Instead, education is fully decentralized, delivered through a global digital platform that connects students with educators, industry professionals, and peers worldwide. Education is personalized and modular, with students choosing courses from multiple providers to curate their own degrees. Blockchain technology certifies all educational transactions and achievements.
Impact: Physical campuses are converted into community learning hubs or repurposed entirely. The role of traditional faculty evolves into that of learning facilitators and personal mentors. The focus shifts entirely to lifelong learning, with constant upskilling becoming the norm.
Scenario 2: Corporate-Led Education
Description: Major corporations have taken over the higher education sector, integrating it with apprenticeship and employment opportunities. Universities as independent entities no longer exist; instead, education is a branch of corporate operations, designed to groom employees tailored to very specific corporate needs.
Impact: Education is tightly coupled with employment, significantly altering curriculum and research to align with corporate interests. This scenario raises questions about academic freedom and education for broader societal benefit versus corporate profitability.
Scenario 3: AI-driven Autonomous Education
Description: Artificial intelligence systems have advanced to manage the learning process from curriculum design through delivery and assessment. AI tutors, capable of adapting to individual learning styles and needs, handle the entirety of educational delivery, with minimal human intervention.
Impact: The role of human educators is diminished, shifting to AI oversight and content curation. This scenario challenges the need for extensive administrative and teaching staff, transforming institutions into tech-driven monitoring bodies that ensure AI alignment with evolving educational standards and student welfare.
Scenario 4: Global Education as a Service (EaaS)
Description: Higher education has become a global service accessible to anyone with internet access, similar to streaming services for television and music. Users subscribe to educational services, accessing courses provided by various global institutions on-demand. Education costs are drastically reduced, making it accessible to a broader population.
Impact: This model democratizes education but also introduces intense competition among providers, leading to potential quality disparities. Traditional institutions may struggle to maintain their brand prestige and financial sustainability.
Scenario 5: Education in a Post-Digital World
Description: In a radical shift away from digital dependency, there is a strong global movement back towards hands-on, experiential learning. This movement is driven by digital fatigue and a recognition of the value of face-to-face interaction and physical experience in learning. Higher education institutions transform into community-based experiential learning centres.
Impact: Digital tools are used only to enhance physical experiences, not replace them. Universities become integrated community centres focusing on real-world skills and personal development. This scenario revalues the role of educational institutions as anchors of communities and experiential learning.
These scenarios force higher education institutions to reconsider their current models and potentially prepare for profound changes in their role, structure, and operations. They highlight the need for adaptability and the importance of forward-thinking in a sector that is increasingly influenced by technological and societal shifts.
Prompt 2
A follow-up prompt was used to extend the list:
'Please list five other radical future scenarios for the higher education sector.'
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ChatGPT Response
Building upon the notion of radical transformations in the higher education sector, here are five additional future scenarios that push the boundaries of traditional education models:
Scenario 6: The Rise of Peer-to-Peer Education Networks
Description: In the future, the formal structure of universities will be largely replaced by global peer-to-peer learning networks. These networks are driven by learners who teach each other, with systems in place to validate and certify acquired skills through community consensus, similar to blockchain mechanisms.
Impact: It eliminates the need for traditional educational institutions and faculty, instead leveraging the network's collective knowledge. The democratization of knowledge leads to diverse learning paths, but it also presents challenges in maintaining standardization and quality assurance.
Scenario 7: Total Virtual Reality Immersion
Description: Higher education is delivered entirely within immersive virtual reality environments. Students and instructors from around the world meet in virtual classrooms that simulate real-world scenarios for hands-on learning experiences in fields like medicine, engineering, and the arts.
Impact: Physical campuses become obsolete, and the barrier between digital and physical learning disappears. This scenario allows for highly interactive and practical training but requires sophisticated technology and significant adjustments in teaching methods and student interaction.
Scenario 8: Government-Mandated Education Models
Description: Governments around the world have stepped in to standardize education completely, driven by the need to rapidly upscale workforce capabilities in response to technological advancements. All educational institutions are state-run, and curricula are standardized nationally to focus on strategic economic needs.
Impact: Ensures uniform education standards and focuses resources on areas of national interest, but may stifle academic freedom and innovation. It could also lead to global competitiveness in key industries but might ignore local community needs or smaller academic disciplines.
Scenario 9: DIY Education and the End of Degrees
Description: The traditional degree is obsolete, replaced by self-directed, project-based learning where students create their own courses of study. Learning is validated through a system of badges and certificates that are accepted universally in the job market, much like a portfolio of work.
Impact: Empowers students to tailor their education to their interests and career needs, potentially increasing engagement and innovation. However, it challenges employers to adapt hiring practices and could create disparities in educational quality and access.
Scenario 10: Climate Change Centric Education
Description: As climate change becomes the central global challenge, all higher education institutions reorient to focus primarily on sustainability and environmental studies. Every course, regardless of discipline, integrates climate literacy and sustainability practices.
Impact: Shifts global educational priorities to equip all students with the knowledge to address environmental challenges, promoting a more sustainable future. However, this focus might limit exposure to other important areas of knowledge and restrict academic diversity.
Prompt 3
The?California Management Review?paper referenced at the start of this article identified 'evaluating ideas' as one of the main benefits of using Gen AI to support scenario planning.
'Gen AI tools can aid in evaluating various ideas and actions generated for different scenarios providing valuable insights into the most promising strategies for enhancing survivability.'
We used the following prompt to test this proposition:
'Please rank all of the ten radical future scenarios listed above in terms of the most realistic to actually happen.'
ChatGPT Response
These scenarios envision a radically altered landscape for higher education, each driven by different forces - technological, social, political, or environmental. They highlight the need for flexibility and adaptation in educational structures to prepare for uncertain and diverse futures. Ranking the ten radical future scenarios for the higher education sector from most realistic to least realistic involves considering current trends in technology, societal shifts, policy directions, and economic pressures. Here’s a ranking based on these factors, with the most realistic scenarios listed first:
1. Global Education as a Service (EaaS): With the rise of online platforms and subscription models in various industries, this scenario is quite feasible. It aligns with current trends towards more accessible and flexible education.
2. Total Virtual Reality Immersion: Given rapid advancements in VR and AR technologies and their increasing application in education, this scenario is highly plausible, particularly for technical and scientific fields that benefit from immersive experiences.
3. Corporate-Led Education: As industry demand for specific skill sets grows, and as corporations increasingly invest in in-house training and education initiatives, this scenario could become more prevalent.
4. AI-driven Autonomous Education: AI technology is already transforming educational tools and platforms. Full autonomy might be farther off, but the foundation for this scenario is being laid in current practice.
5. The Fully Decentralized University: With advancements in blockchain and the rise of online learning communities, a move towards decentralized education models is possible, though it would represent a significant shift from traditional structures.
6. The Rise of Peer-to-Peer Education Networks: Enabled by digital platforms, peer-to-peer learning is growing. While not likely to completely replace formal institutions soon, it could become a significant supplement to traditional education.
7. DIY Education and the End of Degrees: The increasing popularity of personalized learning and micro-credentialing supports this scenario, although completely replacing degrees is less likely in the near term due to their entrenched value in the job market.
8. Government-Mandated Education Models: While feasible, especially in countries with strong central control over education, this scenario would face significant resistance in regions with established private and semi-private higher education sectors.
9. Climate Change-Centric Education: While environmental studies will undoubtedly become more integrated into all disciplines, reorienting all higher education around climate change exclusively might be unrealistic due to the broad scope of academic inquiry and the need for diversity in education.
10. Total Virtual Reality Immersion: Although this scenario was ranked earlier for its realism in technical fields when considered for all areas of study (including those less suited to VR, like philosophy or literature), it might face significant practical and acceptance challenges.
These rankings consider the intersection of technological feasibility, economic viability, cultural acceptance, and regulatory environments. They reflect a spectrum from likely evolutions of existing trends to more disruptive shifts that would require significant changes in societal values or behaviours.
Conclusions
Based on the above, it is clear that Gen AI has become a powerful ally in future-ready scenario planning.?
To learn how to pilot this in your own organisation, please join our new online executive-level course?Building Future Readiness: Know Your Starting Point.
As always, comments and feedback are very welcome.
Dr Jim Hamill