GDP - Canada - May 2024

Source - Stats Canada

Source - Stats Canada and Government of Canada

Justin Trudeau inherited $1B YTD surplus November 2015 and turn that into $987M deficit in a few months. Pre-COVID the deficit was $15B. Trudeau is on pace for $50B budget gap for the fiscal year-end 2023-2024.

Public sector spending growth on average 4.2% per year. If I use 2.1% annual growth then I see nearly $68B more in government spending since Justin Trudeau was elected to office in 2015.

Natural resources as % of GDP is consistent with based mix that Justin Trudeau inherited back in October 2015. Governments pivot on policies as part of their various mandates. The problem is that Trudeau did little to support the natural resources sector. If I use Australia 11% of their GDP is tied to natural resources that would mean Canada has loss a cumulative $123B since Trudeau was elected. I estimate the loss in GDP has cost the treasury between $18B to $30B per year.

The sectors have benefited are the public sector, real estate, and professional services. Real estate in Canada is hitting the worse affordability in over 40 years. https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/tough-times-ahead-for-canadian-home-prices-report-warns/499462

Here is a bit more color:

1. Canada oil production -https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/canada-oil-producers-update-shareholders
2. Canada forestry sector - https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1004878/ontario-investing-35-million-in-mass-timber-manufacturer-to-build-more-homes-faster
3. Canada productivity - https://financialpost.com/opinion/canada-fiscal-policies-need-common-sense
4. Manufacturing - https://www.actionforex.com/contributors/fundamental-analysis/561864-canadas-economy-advanced-in-may-modest-growth-expected-in-june/
5. Construction - https://store.fitchsolutions.com/infrastructure/canada-infrastructure-report
6. Currency - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-fx-debt-canadian-dollar-130804822.html
7. IT - https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-beats-quarterly-revenue-estimates-2024-07-30/
8. ESG / Canada https://www.benefitscanada.com/news/cir-news-news/esg-adoption-rising-steadily-among-institutional-investors-survey/
9. Quality of living - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/canada-living-standards-falling-behind-rest-of-developed-world
10. Capital investments - https://aimstar.ca/aimstar-seminar-canadian-investments-introduction-and-mid-year-market-outlook/ or https://www.mpamag.com/ca/specialty/specialized-lending/canadas-capital-gains-tax-hike-spur-wave-of-commercial-real-estate-sales/499281 or Canadian Federation of Independent Business - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-25/canadian-small-businesses-least-keen-to-hire-in-over-three-years?srnd=homepage-uk

Paul is a former IBM Customer Success Manager that has deployed over 300 data and AI solutions across industry and geographies for the past 8 years. Paul is a Financial Planning, Analysis, and Reporting SME working with data including integration of macro and micro indicators as part of the integrated business planning and reporting cycle.

[email protected]

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