GCC Hydrogen Urgent Future Plan!

The current corona virus and the dwindling demand of oil, has increased the vulnerability of the GCC economy which produce fifth of the world oil. The oil demand is expected to peak by 2040, but my expectations to be brought forward to early 2030's.

An extract a view from IMF and CNBC : The IMF said that the slowing global demand for oil spells a “significant fiscal sustainability challenge for the GCC region.”

“The decline in oil revenues (since 2014) sparked a period of intensive reforms, including sizeable fiscal consolidations. Nevertheless, the effect of lower hydrocarbon revenue is yet to be fully offset. And the resulting fiscal deficits have lowered the region’s net financial wealth during 2014–18. A path of prolonged deceleration in hydrocarbon revenue growth would add to this decline in wealth. At the current fiscal stance, the region’s existing financial wealth could be depleted in the next 15 years.”

The increasing population and dwindling oil revenues will be a significant challenge for the GCC countries future generation.

As Europe is planning to phase out diesel and petrol cars by 2035 with gradual shift to electric vehicles , will add negative pressure on oil demand. In addition the renewable energy revolution continue to gain momentum due to pure economic reasons as primary cause and not because our love of environment that take secondary cause seat. That will continue the reduced consumption trend of coal and oil and associated pricing pressure on natural gas.

The development of flying drones and self flying aeroplanes will accelerate faster then EV cars, as the safety measures and technologies behind flying drones and planes are simpler to overcome than most people expectations. Batteries in EV vehicle typically weighs around 500 Kg while 5 Kg pressurised hydrogen tank and fuel cell weighs around 200 Kg.

Although batteries using electricity is a much cheaper source and more efficient usage of energy, the weight factor plays against batteries for flying as well as large form of land transport such as trucks and busses.

Another challenge facing increased use of Lithium Ion s batteries is the scarce availability of Cobalt, currently produced in its majority in DR of Congo where security and child labour are major concerns.

It is anticipated that Hydrogen will play a significant role in our future energy mix expected to take a share of 12 to 20% by year 2050. However Hydrogen economy requires at least ten years in planning and implementation, where improved electrolysis infrastructure powered by renewable energy and natural gas gasification are required.

The Gulf countries with rich natural gas resources can start the implementation process step by step detailed below:

• Increase Natural Gas gasification infrastructure to produce affordable hydrogen ready for export in large 12 m long pressurised cylinders with around 700 Bar of pressure. Natural Gas can produce cost effective hydrogen in the transitional phase with the possibility to use underground or oil fields to store the byproduct carbon dioxide gas which will improve the environmental friendliness of the gasification process.
• Turn the extreme sun curse in the GCC into a blessing by increasing their solar PV infrastructure to 100 GW in the next ten years.
• Open at least five hydrogen research and higher education institutes that include electrolysis, fuel cell technologies, fuelling stations, safeties related to the entire chain of hydrogen and material science specialised in the region leading fibre glass production technologies to manufacture safe and cost effective storage and export cylinders.
• Start the marketing and sales process of hydrogen that will target short and medium term supply contracts.

The time for GCC countries to prepare themselves for post oil era is now and there is nothing better in my opinion to safe guard their future prosperity than prepare for future Compressed Hydrogen exports as a main source of income for the future generation.