GBP, UK election

Although predicting elections is difficult, and in recent times the pollsters have it badly wrong.

This election is extremely important as it is likely to provide a route to Brexit and finally some clarity and direction after 3 years of uncertainty.

GBP is very likely to react positively to the most likely outcome, a Conservative Majority.

I'd like to bring your attention another, less orthodox source of analysis, one which at times has shown itself more reliable than traditional sources.

Betting odds from betting firms Betfair's odds of a conservative majority are 4/7 giving an implied probability of 64%.

In addition,this website has collated some excellent statistics.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html  

Should the election result be a Conservative majority, it should mean:

• Brexit uncertainty has been removed, Brexit is finally moving forwards in an organised way under the withdrawal agreement
• GBP possible return over time to 2016 levels Pre- referendum / Brexit  
• GBP will be influenced to a larger extent by other macro economic and technical factors

At the moment, GBP seems to be comfortable in a range waiting for the outcome to the UK Election. 

If you are interested in buying GBP at current levels, last chance may be in the next few weeks before the election!

If you wish to discuss this or anything else please call or e-mail 

Kyri Kangellaris