Gaze Into Our Crystal Ball

As President Donald Trump’s first year in office drew to a close, Washington gave us the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. That legislation reformed the system in conventional Republican fashion by broadening the base (subjecting more income to tax) and lowering rates. On the corporate side, they did this mainly by closing avenues to avoid tax on international income. On the individual side, they did it by raising standard deductions and eliminating or limiting personal deductions such as mortgage interest and state and local taxes.

However, the act’s drafters ran into a buzzsaw known as the Byrd Rule, which states thatlegislation passed under “reconciliation” rules (and thus not subject to filibuster) can’t increase the deficit outside the 10-year budget window. They chose to make the corporate cuts permanent. But the personal cuts, like Cinderella’s carriage, turn into a pumpkin at midnight, December 31, 2025.

As that date draws closer, the tax world is speculating what might happen. If the personal cuts expire entirely, as the law provides, taxes go up for 62% of Americans. That’s unacceptable for both parties, making some form of extension inevitable. House Ways & Means Chair Jason Smith has called 2025 “the Super Bowl of taxes.” But it’s been hard to place bets when we don’t know who’s taking the field! To add to the challenge, the Senate Budget Committee estimates that extending the cuts will heap another jillion trillion dollars onto the deficit.

Last week’s election offers some clarity. With Republicans retaking the White House andSenate, and on track to retake the House of Representatives, a broader extension looks likely. That suggests no hikes on income over $400,000, as Democrats had called for, and none of the longshot proposals like taxing unrealized appreciation for taxpayers with net worths over $100 million. It also may mean some of the newer proposals may become law. Take, for example, the proposal to eliminate tax on tip income. (That was Donald Trump’s idea, until Kamala Harris stole it fair and square.)

The incoming administration has also proposed boosting tariffs on imports, mainly from China, and using that revenue to cut income taxes. That’s a total wild card. Most economists say that companies will simply pass those along to consumers, risking higher inflation and a slower economy. Having said that, Tuesday’s results suggest “most economists” don’t carry much weight with the voting public.

Finally, the permanent 21% corporate rate may change as well. Trump proposed lowering itanother point or two as he campaigned. But a surprisingly bipartisan group of legislators,including perhaps a dozen Republicans, support raising it to perhaps 28%. This is largely due to the broader Republican shift from traditional Wall Street Journal-style conservatism to a more populist posture.

Don’t expect quick answers, though. Back in 2012, the Bush tax cuts were scheduled to expire at midnight, December 31, just like the TCJA. After a year of wailing and gnashing of teeth about the looming “fiscal cliff,” it took Congress until 11PM on January 1 to pass legislation implementing smaller increases. (Never forget that our Congress is the undisputed master of putting off until tomorrow what they don’t feel like doing today. If procrastination were an Olympic event, Congress would be ruled too professional to compete.)

What does all that mean for us? Assuming Republicans retake the House, most of the strategies we currently use to cut your tax should remain available for your use. And Washington may open new opportunities, too. It will take planning, though. So be ready for us to reach out to make it happen!