Gaza War Halftime Score: Israel 0 - Hamas 1

In recent discussions across Israeli media and major global think tanks, the focus has been on how Israel might manage post-war Gaza. This discourse, often abstract and laden with complex terminology, presupposes an Israeli victory. Israel's military history, marked by seeming victories in 1948, 1967, and 1973, and compelling the Palestine Liberation Organization to abandon armed struggle in 1996, reinforces this assumption. However, the 2023 Gaza conflict presents a different narrative. Jon B. Alterman, Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy of Middle East Program, a senior figure at the Centre for Strategic and International Strategy, posited on November 7 that this war might be Israel's first military defeat, a scenario with profound implications for both Israel and the United States (https://www.csis.org/analysis/israel-could-lose).

Following the last 47 days of intense bombing and the excruciating suffering of humanity, a four-day temporary ceasefire in Gaza was declared. This development aligns with Alterman's prediction, suggesting a shift in the conflict's dynamics. My analysis, focusing on the ceasefire's terms and the potential for its renewal, argues that Hamas currently holds a stronger position in the negotiation process.

On November 22nd, a ceasefire, part of a new hostage deal, was announced to commence Thursday or post-Friday prayers. After prolonged indirect negotiations, the Israeli war cabinet agreed to a deal where Hamas would release 50 hostages, primarily women and children, from Gaza. In exchange, Israel would free 150 Palestinian captives, women and children. The 3:1 exchange ratio, coupled with Israel's earlier resistance to a ceasefire, indicates a shift in the negotiation power balance, favouring Hamas. Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel's national-security minister, labelled the agreement a "very, very big mistake," highlighting Israel's discomfort with the terms.

The ceasefire's renewability further underscores Hamas's strengthened position. The deal holds that after the four-day ceasefire is over, Hamas has the option to extend the ceasefire 24 hours each time it releases 10 hostages. In other words, an Israeli hostage can help gather 2.4 hours of extra peace time in Gaza, where one kid would otherwise get killed every ten minutes, which roughly saves 15 kids' lives. What is important to note is that the option lies with Hamas to exercise it or not and this mechanism places control over the conflict's trajectory in Hamas's hands, a significant leverage point.

A significant implication of the agreement is that Israel's obligation extends beyond a mere temporary halt in hostilities; it must also contend with considerable international and domestic pressure against resuming the conflict. The rapid succession of events in recent weeks has amplified calls for peace and justice across the globe, challenging and reinterpreting historical narratives in ways previously unimagined before October 7th. This surge in global solidarity for peace has overwhelmingly overshadowed pro-war voices, rendering a ceasefire not just a strategic choice but an inevitable response to the prevailing sentiment. Consequently, Israel finds itself in a position where it must engage in sophisticated and effective diplomacy to counter the widespread push, both nationally and internationally, for the prolongation of the ceasefire.

In traditional warfare, a ceasefire typically benefits the weaker party by providing a respite. However, in this scenario, Hamas does not appear to be the weaker party, as evidenced by the ceasefire terms. Initially, Hamas may have been willing to release more hostages in exchange for a pause in hostilities. Yet, the effective use of rudimentary munitions against sophisticated military assets has altered the cost-benefit analysis of the war, tipping the scales in Hamas's favour. This shift has led to a negotiation of hostage swaps rather than simple returns coupled with a potentially renewable ceasefire. At this juncture, the conflict's scorecard reads differently from past confrontations. At halftime, Israel 0 : Palestine 1 and Alterman might be right. (Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are entirely my own and do not at all represent those of the institutions I am affiliated with. Gazi Hassan )