Gaza and Hamas: What is Going on?

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It has been almost ten months since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered his military forces into Gaza with three clear objectives: eliminating Hamas, securing the release of Israeli captives in Gaza, and ensuring that the Palestinian enclave would not pose a threat to Israel's security.

As everyone expected, this has not been an easy task. We all knew that Hamas was operating their command-and-control centers, rocket launchers, missile factories, and armament storage sites in civilian buildings, in and under hospitals and schools, and in mosques. Anyone who believed otherwise and reported that to be untrue was either a propagandist for Hamas or just plain ignorant. The Israelis knew, the UN knew, and every Palestinian in Gaza knew.

As a result, Israel had a couple of options. As former Israeli President Naftali Bennett said when I interviewed him on stage months ago, “this thing could have been over in three days if we didn’t care about civilian losses.”

Instead, Israel embarked on a mission of clearing homes block by block, trying hard to target missile launchers and individual troops only. Of course, this is impossible, and thousands of civilian deaths occurred. While incredibly sad, it was inevitable.

When an armed terror group embeds itself completely into civilian society, it puts civilians at risk. So, who is responsible for civilian deaths? Is it the Israeli soldier who shot the civilian, or is it the Hamas terrorist who hid behind the civilian? I have had this talk with many Israelis who had to make the choice. If there are 25 rocket-propelled grenades, each capable of taking out a tank, in a room with four civilians, do you take the shot knowing that you will kill four civilians but save dozens of Israeli tankers’ lives? After coming into their country, massacring their people, and taking 240 hostages, the choice is difficult but clear. You take the shot.

There has been some interesting research from some of the top urban warfare experts in the world, who say that in modern urban warfare, the rule of thumb is that for every bad guy you kill, you will kill nine to ten non-combatants. In Falluja, Iraq, we know the number was higher, and when Russia was carpet-bombing ISIS, the number was much higher. Early in the war, the ratio was about 1:1.4. In other words, for every two combatants killed, three non-combatants lost their lives.

As Israel has driven further south into Gaza and Hamas has been seriously degraded as a fighting force, the current numbers are even lower, closer to 1:1. Not only have these numbers been reported widely by experts, but I have also spoken to both Canadian and American observers who have been in situ studying how this was possible.

But the numbers become more interesting as reported in an article by my friend Arsen Ostrovsky , where he asks, “Who is a combatant?”

On June 8th, six weeks after learning of the location of four hostages, combined Israeli forces raided an apartment and rescued the hostages. In the process, some “civilians” in the apartment complex were killed. But as Arsen notes, these Israeli hostages were kidnapped by Hamas and held against their will by a dentist and his family, in their home. Does that make them civilians or terrorists who simply don’t wear a uniform?

If you follow that logic, then of the 39,000 Gazans reportedly killed (by Hamas), the vast majority of them deserved to die due to their complicity. As a father and grandfather, I would not be hiding a captive in the same place I live with my family and grandkids. How can he blame anyone but himself if they are harmed? I personally abhor war, and the deaths of anyone weigh heavily on me. But I understand war, and as the saying goes, “if you poke the bear, expect to get eaten.” Hamas poked Israel hard.

So, what is the current status in Gaza?

Israel controls all three borders, including the border with Egypt, which has finally cut off the source of weapons smuggling. We know Egyptian generals on their side of the border make hundreds of millions of dollars “taxing” all the goods being smuggled into Gaza. We don’t know if the corruption went all the way up to the President of Egypt. I met President Sisi several years ago and liked him. I hope his hands are clean. Regardless, the smuggling has all but stopped, and no new weapons are coming in. Israel has killed off most of the Hamas operational leadership, and while Hamas is still dangerous, they are not capable of the coordination to operate in anything other than small units of 50 to 100 fighters. It may take another year to clean out every booby-trapped tunnel and all the hidden infrastructure, but Hamas is all but done as an effective fighting force. To be clear, there will still be missiles fired from hidden sites, and Hamas will pop up from yet-to-be-discovered tunnels and shoot at Israeli soldiers, but they are not an effective fighting force.

From the very first days of the war, what I call “useful idiots” have been saying Gaza is on the verge of starvation. They continue to say this. Ten months is a long time to be on the verge. I am not saying it has been easy, but there has been no starvation.

Hmmm…… I wonder if the Russians are allowing aid into the Ukrainian areas they are bombarding? That is a subject for another day…..

Israel is on its way to destroying Hamas and ensuring that Hamas/Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel. Unfortunately, the hostage count is still close to 120 – most of whom I believe are not alive.

So, what is next? Israel has very few troops in Gaza at the moment. Armies are safest when they are moving fast, but this clean-up is slow, meticulous, and dangerous, and unless the world wants a lot of dead civilians and Israeli soldiers, it will take a lot of time.

In the meantime, there are daily rumors of a ceasefire, which I think Israel will accept in return for all the hostages. But for the foreseeable future, the army is staying in Gaza until its security needs can be satisfied. In the earliest days of the war, I suggested that the Emirates and Saudis take control of day-to-day civil society. I still think this will happen, but it will take years for this transformation to materialize and a culture of peace and progress to develop.

The path forward in Gaza is fraught with challenges, but the ultimate goal remains clear: to ensure that Gaza, under Hamas’s influence, no longer poses a threat to Israel’s security.

Next: What is happening with Lebanon and Hezbollah?