A Gaza Ceasefire

The ceasefire deal the U.S. has tabled represents the best – and perhaps last – hope for both ending the Gaza war and getting the hostages held in the strip back any time soon. Israeli and Hamas leaders should accept it.

Read the full statement here.

// On Our Radar

Haiti

After nearly a month of discussions, the members of Haiti’s transitional presidential council last week appointed Garry Conille, a longtime UN development expert, as prime minister. Conille, who has previously served as prime minister from 2011-2012, is now working with the council members to form a cabinet, the last step before the official installation of a new government. Crisis Group expert Diego Da Rin says Conille and the presidential council should swiftly agree on individuals with sufficient experience and skills needed for key government positions as they face daunting tasks, including working, likely with the support of foreign forces, to loosen the grip of gangs over the capital, reforming the constitution, organising elections and revitalising the economy.

Korean Peninsula

South Korea Monday announced the full suspension of a 2018 military agreement with the North and the resumption of frontline military activities. Seoul partly suspended the agreement last November after Pyongyang successfully launched a reconnaissance satellite into orbit. Shortly after, North Korea stated it would no longer be bound by the agreement. Tuesday’s decision followed a series of incidents involving North Korea sending trash-filled balloons over the border last week in response to South Korean activists allegedly floating anti-regime propaganda to the North. Crisis Group expert Christopher Green Green says the prospect of increased military activity along the border inevitably heightens the risk of inter-Korean clashes and raises the prospect of potentially calamitous miscalculation on either side.

Lebanon

Clashes between Hizbollah and the Israeli military along the Israel-Lebanon border continued this week. Rockets fired from Lebanon Monday set off large-scale wildfires in northern Israel. A drone swarm launched at an Israeli military position Wednesday killed one soldier and wounded several more. Hizbollah claimed the latest attacks were in response to intensified Israeli strikes on Lebanon. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was “prepared for a very intense operation” in the north. Crisis Group expert David Wood says absent a ceasefire in Gaza, which Hizbollah has named as a precondition for stopping the attacks, the risk of continued clashes escalating into an all-out war remains high.

// CrisisWatch

June Alerts and May Trends

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights six?conflict risks in June. It also identified deteriorations in sixteen?countries and conflict areas and?in May.

// Our Journeys

After a decade-long lull, Somali pirates have hijacked a handful of vessels in recent months. Crisis Group expert Omar Mahmood reports on the burning anger over illegal trawling that is driving some local fishermen to sympathise with this dangerous – and profitable – activity.

// Podcast

Hold Your Fire!

A Big Week for Democracy: Elections in India, South Africa and Mexico

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!,?Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Pauline Bax and Falko Ernst to talk about the recent elections in India, South Africa and Mexico.

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