GATT24 and other hopes and fantasies of the British

Ok, so I've not been on about Brexit again for a while. That's because we British are still wasting our time looking inwardly keen to satisfy 160,000 members of a single political party whilst trying to keep Nigel Farage away from Westminster with a virtual cattle prod.

Complete rubbish has been spouted again by a leading Prime Minsiterial Candidate on GATT24 and the only good news is that in an interview with a decent journalist (who have been few and far between for the last three years) it became abundantly clear that not only did he not know what he was talking about, but that he was making it up as he goes along. That man will be the UK's next Prime Minister.

The two Prime Minsiterial candidates are in a race to the bottom and their only real difference is that one says the UK will leave the EU on 31 October 2019, deal or no deal. The other says we will leave by the end of 2019, no deal or deal. One relies on good old British optimism to get through the problems this will cause. The other at times looks like a rabbit in headlights, though that may just be his resting facial expression.

Both of these candidates are absolutely sure, however, that through a mixture of bullying (threats have been made to Ireland by one of their supporters on the BBC) or charm, the EU27 will fold completely, give the UK anything it wants and in particular will drop the backstop. They haven't quite caught on that most Europeans speak perfectly good English and all their negotiating tactics are well known to their counterparts throughout the EU, many of whom they have insulted over the last three years (along with the president of the United States with whom they rely on getting the greatest ever trade deal post Brexit and who is offering to take the NHS off our hands in exchange for chlorinated chicken and vaccinated beef). We also know that the 160,000 party members are content that the UK economy be wrecked by a no deal Brexit, that they do not care if the UK breaks up as a result, and that civil war restarting in Ireland is someone else's problem (they should try living somewhere that has been bombed by the IRA, as I do).

In the meantime, you would expect the views of the Official Opposition to take advantage of a deeply unpopular Government position. But no, until very recently, the Opposition has sat firmly on the fence trying to please everyone and actually pleasing very few outside of a core of zealots. The Opposition resembles a supertanker - indeed I don't think it is that nimble. Mrs Thatcher turned more quickly than Mr Corbett. Their position is clearer as regards "no deal" in that they are opposed to it, but would put it to the people in a referendum if their own fresh negotiations with the EU27 do not come up with a leave agreement that would receive the support of Parliament. The plan has a few small flaws in that they are not in Government, they are not negotiating with the EU, the EU says what's on the table now is "it", the chances of the Opposition gaining office between now and 31 October 2019 are remote and the chances of the Labour Party gaining a working majority any time soon is about as likely as a heatwave on Christmas Day.

In the meantime, supporters of Mr Johnson, when Prime Minister (he will be - the 160,000 love him despite all the evidence), have made it clear he will close the UK Parliament to push through a No Deal Brexit at 31 October 2019. Usually people planning a coup d'etat do so in secret, but in the UK it is being discussed openly.

So there you go.

Right now we have a load of fantasists looking to run the UK, one (who is likely to get the job) is keen on a coup to cut out the body in which UK sovereignty lays - remember Brexit was allegedly about taking back sovereignty and control, not transferring it to a few people in Downing Street.

Indeed, should Mr Johnson go down that route, I wonder whether the EU27 can accept what he has to say. Why? The decision is not coming from the body where sovereignty lays, and that has been made clear in the revocation case that went to the CJEU. Revocation is Parliament's decision, just as the serving of the Article 50 notice was Parliament's decision once the courts had intervened and so too must be the deal, or no deal, which the UK adopts.

Brexiteers (some currently are trying to stop them being called that, saying they should be called "Brectums" instead - I find that too rude) will argue that the Withdrawal Act means the choice is between a deal or no deal, but the revocation decision of the Courts (much like the Article 50 decision) means that fails to take into consideration something that it ought, it also means to my mind that a No Deal choice must receive the assent of Parliament in the same way as revocation should, and that the CJEU decision in the revocation case changed UK law - it came after the Withdrawal Act and to my mind amended it.

I'm sure that the constitutional lawyers will be able to paw over this or weeks, but I'd remind them that we only have until 31 October 2019, possibly less dependent upon the timing of Mr Johnson's planned coup. In the meantime, the EU27 needs to make its position clear as to whether it can accept a No Deal decision from an executive that has suspended the democratic sovereign Parliament of the UK. Can it accept the decision from, effectively, a dictator who has usurped his country's Parliament? It has a duty to all citizens of the EU, including those in the UK, and it may well have to assert that duty.

So what for business - well No Deal is favourite, and revoke second favourite. I cannot see a "New Deal" being agreed in the foreseeable future. I am sorry to say that there could be civil unrest in the UK towards the end of this year - I see posts already on social media as groups opposing a no deal Brexit looking to organise ready to display civil disobedience, and that cannot be a good prospect for anyone doing business in or with the UK. Bonfire night 2019 could be very lively.

Enjoy the rest of your Summer!