Gartner Hype Cycle for investors

Traditionally, September is the time for investment valuation, and incidently when Gartner hosts a technology Hype Cycle Webinar. It's core visual will end up in investment pitches near you. You might be inclined to incorporate one yourself.

What is the value of a trend comparison like the Gartner Hype Cycle in our decision making?

Uncertainty undercuts decision making. Being able to map our investment decisions against an authoritive perspective on the foreseable future helps to alleviate doubt. So we refer to pamphlets from a recognized authority like Gartner.

What strikes me not about the original 1995 Gartner Hype Cycle for emerging technologies (visual above) are not the technologies listed. Nor does it strike me as odd that certain technologies have moved in different directions in latter versions, as some degree of discongruency is to be expected. Nor do I get overly concerned about finding things unrelated plotted on a single graph (which seems to suggest they must be related). I am even willing to overlook the lack of figures (what does "visibility" or "expectation" actual on the X-axis measure? Is it linear?)

Ok, technically, it is not even a cycle. I guess Forrester must have had the Wave cornered ahead of Gartner. As long as we can trust the research, I see no reason to ponder over name.

Where I need to draw the line is how some of todays major impact technologies have not been represented. Human biass might explain how technologies originating outside of the US (like internet, or mobile cellular communications) have taken some time to appear. More examples can be found below (*). I invite you to simply look around you from the privacy of your desk - as you should spot an extra few.

To what extent can we trust the Gartner Hype Cycle?

Though visually compelling, data supporting the Gartner Hype cycle is unclear. The Hype Cycle Methodology page is vague at best. According to Gartner: "... clients use Hype Cycles to get educated about the promise of an emerging technology ..."

Fair enough.

How can we make use of the Gartner Hype Cycle?

It feels like Gartner analysts may have been winging it. It proves interesting to compare Gartner predicitions over time, just like blogger Hagit Katzenelson did in her personal take on the Gartner Hype Cycle. So which of the bits can be used to support our investment decisions?

In short, I believe you can, but really you shouldn't. Not if you are looking to found your investment decision based on empirical fact. Simplicity is no surrogate for truth.

Superior methods are available to us. Such methods allow to integrate data and quantify expectations: here's a 4' YouTube Video by author and marketeer Jason Voiovich, illustrating most major drawbacks of the Hype Cycle cited above. He also explains what you could use instead (If you are having a desktop sandwich today - his full article goes in a lot more detail, provided you have 20' to spare);

Enjoy!

(*) examples include Internet of Things (or 1991's ubiquitous/pervasive computing), Mobile / GSM (first commercialized in Finland 1983, Most of Continental Europe by 1986, US 1995), the internet, 3D-printing (invented during the late 1980's, first commercialized in 1993) and famously: Artificial Intelligence.