The Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2024, is officially out!

The Gartner Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2024, is officially out!

Quick insights:

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?????????????? ????????????????: Peak of Inflated Expectations

??????????????: Generative AI is experiencing a lot of hype and attention, suggesting that it is seen as highly innovative and has many potential applications. However, this phase also implies that expectations may be unrealistic and that some disillusionment is likely as limitations and challenges become more apparent.

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?????????????? ????????????????: Plateau of Productivity

??????????????: Citizen developers—non-professional developers who create applications for their own use or for their teams—have reached a mature stage where their benefits are well understood and widely adopted. This indicates that organizations have found effective ways to empower these individuals, likely through no-code or low-code platforms, leading to increased productivity and innovation.

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?????????????? ????????????????: Innovation Trigger

??????????????: Workforce nudgtech, which involves using technology to nudge employees towards desired behaviors and improved performance, is in the very early stages of development. Being in the Innovation Trigger phase and expected to take over 10 years to reach the plateau suggests that this technology is still nascent, with significant research and development needed before it can be widely adopted.

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?????????????? ????????????????: Beginning of the Slope of Enlightenment

??????????????: These technologies are starting to emerge from the Trough of Disillusionment, where initial excitement has worn off and more practical, realistic understandings are developing. As organizations gain experience and overcome initial setbacks, these technologies are being refined and are showing increasing promise for practical, widespread use.

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???????????????????????? ???? ?????? ???????? ???? ???????????????? ????????????????????????: A variety of workplace technologies, such as Everyday AI, Immersive Meetings, and Visual Collaboration Applications, are at their hype peak. This means they are generating significant interest, but the industry should prepare for a potential period of disillusionment as real-world challenges and limitations are encountered.

???????????? ???? ??????????????????????????????: Technologies like Natural Language Generation, Data Literacy, and Workplace Experience Apps are in the trough, indicating that while they are facing setbacks and skepticism, they are also on the path to more stable, realistic applications.

?????????? ???? ??????????????????????????: Technologies in this phase, such as OKR Applications, are gaining more traction and proving their value through more consistent and practical applications.

?????????????? ???? ????????????????????????: Citizen Developers represent a mature technology that has become an integral part of many organizations’ strategies for fostering innovation and improving efficiency.

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???????????????? ????????????????: Organizations should consider their adoption strategy based on where a technology is on the hype cycle. Early adopters can experiment with emerging technologies but should be prepared for possible setbacks and adjustments. More conservative organizations might wait until technologies reach the Slope of Enlightenment or Plateau of Productivity before investing heavily.

???????? ????????????????????: Being aware of the hype cycle stages helps in managing risks associated with new technology adoption. Understanding that not all hyped technologies will deliver immediate returns can lead to more informed decision-making.

????????-???????? ????????????????: Technologies expected to take more than 10 years to mature (like Workforce Nudgtech) should be monitored but not heavily invested in unless there are strategic reasons for doing so.

By aligning technology adoption with the stages of the hype cycle, organizations can better manage expectations, allocate resources more effectively, and ultimately drive more successful technology implementations.

I wonder why AI hallucinations are not explicitly mentioned as a challenge to be addressed at various stages of AI technology development?

• AI Hallucination Risk Factor: It could be treated as a risk factor influencing the adoption curve of AI technologies.
• AI Hallucination Mitigation Techniques: Highlighting effective mitigation techniques as part of the Slope of Enlightenment can guide organizations on best practices.

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